The Rear Naked Column 08.26.09: Battle of the Icons (Part 2)

Posted by Samer Kadi on 08.26.2009

As UFC 102 approaches, “The Rear Naked Column” continues its preview of this weekend’s main event, featuring two of the greatest of all time when Randy Couture takes on Minotauro Nogueira. Join 411’s Samer Kadi as he breaks down the fight with an in depth look at each fighter’s strengths, weaknesses, strategies and keys to victory.

Last week, "The Rear Naked Column" began a two part preview of UFC 102's main event featuring former five time UFC champion Randy Couture taking on former PRIDE and UFC heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira, by looking back at some of the pair's most memorable moments throughout the years. I'm delighted to say the article was met by positive comments and would like to thank everyone for the kind words.

This week, it's time to break down the fight, looking at the different variables to potentially determine its outcome. Both fighters will be looking for redemption after their last outings with Couture coming up short in his second title defense against current heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar, and Nogueira looking alarmingly sluggish in a total beatdown at the hands of Frank Mir.

While this fight means much more than a potential title shot as far as both men's legacies are concerned, a win is still vital for either fighter to remain relevant in an ever improving heavyweight division.

Two questions have been raised in the weeks leading up to the fight. Was Nogueira's performance against Frank Mir a product of an alleged staph infection, or are Big Nog's days as an elite heavyweight really behind him? How much have Randy's personal issues (Randy is currently going through a divorce with his wife Kim) affected his preparation for this fight, from a mental and physical perspective?

As far as Randy is concerned, I think he is experienced enough to deal with these types of situations. He actually went through an almost identical scenario in 2006 before his rubber match with Chuck Liddell. According to Couture, his performance in that fight was largely affected by the ongoing problems in his personal life, so don't expect him to fall in the same trap once more. Reports of Randy continuing his support of Kim's MMA career as well as upholding his position as her main coach are good signs regarding his mental preparation coming into the fight.

As far as Minotauro's recent setback goes, the question is a little bit more complicated. I'm a firm believer in Joe Rogan's punch-card theory. Few fighters have endured the amount of damage that Nogueira has throughout the course of his career. Even in victory, Minotauro often comes out on the receiving end of a hammering. And while his ability to withstand punishment is legendary, it looked as though all the battles have finally taken their toll on the Brazilian as he was stopped for the first time in his career at UFC 92. Since then, it has been reported that Nogueira was suffering from a staph infection and a knee injury suffered days leading up to the fight which undoubtedly hindered his performance. Those reports have been confirmed (even by UFC president Dana White), but they don't take away the fact that Nogueira has looked noticeably slower since joining the UFC.

Being a big fan of both these MMA icons, I'll be hoping they show up on top of their game this Saturday night. So with that out of the way, let's examine the different aspects to possibly come into play come fight time, and determine who holds the edge in each category.

Conditioning

Questions have been raised regarding Randy Couture's age for pretty much his entire career, and yet, he continues to prove people wrong time and time again. While a win is never a certainty when it comes to Couture, you can bet your house on "The Natural" showing up in shape. Despite being well into his forties, he continues to assert himself as one of the best conditioned athletes in the sport.

Conditioning has never been an issue with Big Nog as well. Despite a 300+ lbs behemoth on top of him for fifteen minutes in Bob Sapp, Minotauro kept looking for the submission and was finally able to sweep late in the fight before securing the submission victory. Twenty minutes wars with Heath Herring, Josh Barnett and Fedor Emelianenko further solidify Nogueira's image as someone who will not stop until the very last second. And while Nogueira's body is undeniably older than his actual age seems to indicate, there's no reason to believe that Big Nog isn't in good enough shape to fight for three rounds with the same intensity. And even if at this stage of his career, Minotauro has lost a step or two in terms of physical ability, he more than makes up for it with heart, drive, courage, and desire.

I'm expecting both athletes to look as fresh in the third round as they did in the first. However, I feel Couture will always be in the driving seat when it comes to setting the pace, and that could ultimately prove to be one of the deciding factors. The fight being a three rounder plays into Randy's hands in my opinion, as it simply gives Big Nog less time to pull off that miraculous submission he's grown accustomed to.

Advantage: Tie, slight edge to Couture.

Gameplan

Randy Couture has a well earned reputation for being one of the best strategists in the game. Case in point, fights against Vitor Belfort, Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga. All used as exhibit A evidence of Couture's genius. Even in a losing effort to Brock Lesnar, Couture was more than holding his own and looked to have another spot on gameplan in store until getting caught.

Randy is never too shy of "winning ugly", as he looks to rough his opponents up against the fence, utilize his dirty boxing and take his opponents down. He's one of the few fighters who know how to use the Octagon environment to his benefits. In most –if not all- of Randy's fights, taking his opponent down at one point or another is all but a given. But does he really want to be on the ground with Big Nog?

For Nogueira, the ultimate goal has always been to submit his opponent. He's often quick to jump guard and work from there. He will likely look to take the fight to the ground by any means. Unless he has seriously improved his stand up since the Mir fight, you can expect more of the same on Saturday night. Shooting on a wrestler of Randy's caliber is pretty much out of the equation, so pulling guard might be the way to go. Nog is a master at getting on the inside and pull guard, but getting on the inside with Randy Couture isn't something most people would recommend.

I believe Randy will have more options at his disposal as far as his approach to the fight is concerned. He also will enjoy the privilege of having the possibility to switch to a different strategy, a plan B if you will, if things aren't working according to plan. With his wrestling ability, Randy will more than likely decide where the fight takes place, which gives him more room in which to operate, so to speak.

Advantage: Couture.

Striking



If Nogueira's striking looks as sub-par as it did against Mir, this one is pretty much a no brainer. If he goes back to the form that saw him out-strike Josh Barnett in their second fight after training with the Cuban Olympic Boxing team, things will get a little more interesting. I have always found Big Nog's striking to be underrated. His boxing has always been decent, and his Muay Thai is passable. It often proved to be more than enough to do the trick against most heavyweights in the world. However, his head movement and footwork have always been mediocre at best. To say Nogueira looked flat footed in his latest outing against Frank Mir would be an understatement. Much was made out of Mir's improved striking, and I take nothing away from him, but the fact is he walked straight forward, threw straight lefts and right uppercuts and dropped Big Nog each and every time. And looking back at his fights with Heath Herring and Tim Sylvia, Nog's movement left a lot to be desired. Sylvia, using his superior reach, repeatedly tagged him with jabs and straight rights, dropping him twice in the opening rounds. Heath Herring almost became the first man to stop Minotauro when he landed a brutal head kick, which saw Nog fall like a brick. Nogueira isn't one to hit and move, and he doesn't possess a significant reach advantage against Randy, so unless he's hiding quite a surprise up his sleeve, I don't expect him to pose a serious threat on his feet.

Randy's head movement is one of the best in the division.



He utilizes a traditional boxing side to side movement, which could in theory make him vulnerable to head kicks, but Big Nog isn't really one to utilize them. His footwork, while somewhat heavy and not quite as effortless as some of the higher caliber strikers, is more than enough to get him by in the heavyweight division. In the Tim Sylvia fight, Randy decided to kick-box with the Main-eac for an entire round, and managed to continuously tag him with overhand rights and left hooks. Randy's strikes come from different angles but he does tend to get into a predictable pattern. If Nog can time it right, he might be able to counter or more likely, duck under and pull guard.

Neither fighter possesses serious knockout power, which bodes well for Couture. In the Lesnar fight, Randy admitted to misjudging and underestimating Brock's reach. That proved to be a fatal mistake as Lesnar dropped him with a straight right for the resulting TKO. If Nogueira surprises "Captain America" with improved striking, Randy can always adjust and take the fight to the ground without receiving a fight ending blow.

Advantage: Couture.

Grappling

Listening to Randy's interviews, he seemed as though he doesn't plan on taking the fight to the ground, but is prepared to work on the mat if the fight ends up there. Obviously this could be a trick, and Randy might be planning on shooting in the opening seconds, but I personally believe it is unlikely.

It is common knowledge really: Randy has the better wrestling, while Nog is the superior BJJ practitioner.

But does either fighter want the fight to end up on the ground? This is a no brainer in my opinion as far as Nogueira's strategy goes. He will not take Couture down, but he's a master at getting inside and pulling guard. In order to do that, he needs to dodge Randy's punches to close in the distance. If he walks straight forward in a desperate attempt, he will get punished and likely get knocked down. He needs to bait Couture into getting a bit too comfortable with his striking, and capitalize on a mistake.

Another important factor is the clinch, which I consider to be Couture's bread and butter. He managed to batter the much bigger Tim Sylvia from that position, and showcased an absolute clinic against Gabriel Gonzaga, breaking him down in the clinch before securing the takedown and the eventual stoppage. Nog's ability to withstand punishment might tempt him to take the risk and fight Randy's fight. It's a high risk-high reward situation.



In my mind, unless your name is Fedor Emelianenko, if you stay long enough in Nogueira's guard, he will submit you. If Randy for decides to shoot, or whether Nog does indeed manage to take him down from the clinch, he needs to be extra careful. Randy likes to stay busy from the top, but that could be exactly the kind of opportunity Minotauro is looking for. Nogueira's wrist control is one of the best in the game, so Randy can't afford to be too passive either. While Couture's experience and improved submission defense will allow him to hold his own, the fact is, Nogueira still possesses one of the deadliest guards in MMA. His triangle chokes are lethal, and his ability to sweep opponents, especially from half guard, is remarkable.



Nogueira was able to sweep fighters as big as Bob Sapp, Tim Sylvia and Josh Barnett. He was even able to do it against Fedor. If Nog sweeps and gets on top, it could be a matter of seconds. Wrestlers are rarely comfortable fighting off their back, and with someone with Nogueira's top game, it could spell trouble for Couture. It is important for Randy not get overconfident with his ability to avoid submissions, but he's never been one to deviate from the gameplan. I think he's smart enough and he's studied Nogueira's game long enough to know that this isn't really where he wants to be, but he's experienced enough not to panic should the fight go there.

The fight might be decided in the scrambles. If Big Nog somehow gets on top, Randy is more than able to scramble back to his feet. He was able to do it against Brock Lesnar and Big Nog isn't nearly as heavy. With that said, this is the kind of predicaments Nogueira thrives on. The Cro Cop and Sylvia fights are prime examples. As Mirko was shaking him off, Nog grabbed a hold of an arm and secured the submission just before Cro Cop could regain his feet. When Sylvia thought he was sweeping and attempted to stand back up, Nogueira grabbed a hold of his neck for the guillotine.

The grappling is indeed a tricky category, and there's little to choose from between these two, but seeing as this is where Nogueira is likely to win the fight should he come out victorious, he might have the slight edge there. Randy can undoubtedly control the fight with his grappling if he chooses to, but Nogueira can finish it.

Advantage: Slight edge to Nogueira.

Final thoughts and predictions

This is one of those bitter-sweet fights for me to watch as a fan, as I'm a big supporter of both. With that said, I will never root against my all time favorite fighter. And truth be told, I think he has a very good chance to triumph. Randy has the advantage of deciding where the fight takes place, and he will be better served to keep it on the feet. His striking is superior to Nogueira's and I think he's seasoned enough to avoid Nog's attempts at pulling guard.

With that said, you can never discount Nogueira. The man can finish a fight at any second if he takes it to the ground. If it ends up there, you gotta like his chances. Randy has been submitted before, and while that was early in his career, he's never faced a fighter with Nogueira's submission ability. Gabriel Gonzaga is a top level Jiu-Jitsu fighter, but he doesn't operate off his back nearly as well as Nog does. And while Randy manages to break a lot of fighters' spirits early in the fight, Minotauro isn't one to quit.

But I gotta go with the more logical choice here:

Official prediction: Randy Couture, Unanimous Decision.

That's it for this week and until next time, I hope you enjoy the fights. Feel free to leave your comments, feedback is always appreciated.