Tapping Out With TBerg 03.20.09: Episode XXIII: Heavyweight Haven

Posted by Todd Bergman on 03.20.2009

Finishing his five-part series on the UFC’s Championship Divisions, 411’s Todd Bergman breaks down the Heavyweights and lets you know who’s going to be challenging Brock Lesnar in the near future along with calling out the fighters who aren’t championship caliber.

With the showdown between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir being postponed for a couple more months, it really presents an opportunity for other Heavyweights to make a name for themselves. The shadow that Lesnar casts upon the Heavyweight division is pretty huge. Lesnar isn't the most gifted fighter but he is a huge name, not only for MMA fans but for the general public. It's not a huge surprise when shows featuring Lesnar spike upwards in ratings because of his mass appeal with the general public. So far, in the bright career of Lesnar, there's been only one asterisk: his loss to Frank Mir.

In what many have considered one of the more important fights in MMA history, Brock Lesnar lost to Frank Mir in a controversial fight. The fight isn't so controversial in my mind because Lesnar was warned not to hit Mir in the back of the head numerous times, and yet he continued throwing Donkey Kong-style punches into the back of Frank Mir's dome until the referee had to break up the madness. From there Mir locked on a beautiful foot lock and got the tap out from Lesnar. That night in itself was huge for MMA because Lesnar brought in a key demographic for the UFC: the hardcore wrestling fan. No one wants to talk about it because MMA is real and wrestling is obviously staged, but that crowd helped make that night special. It was particularly satisfying for me to laugh in all of the faces of wrestling fans when Lesnar tapped out that night. I'm going on the record and predicting Lesnar to beat Mir in the rematch because I can't see Lesnar making the same mistake again and being caught in another submission. I do respect Mir a great deal and think that his career-resurrecting victory against Big Nog will go down as one of my favorite moments of all time, but Lesnar is just going to be too much for Frank.

UFC 81 featured an interim Heavyweight Title fight between Big Nog and Tim Sylvia. The splitting of the titles came from Randy Couture's departure from the UFC over Randy wanting to fight Fedor and making a terrible sequel to The Mummy movies. It's not that I blame Randy for wanting to make the most out of his career, but his head got entirely too big and he alienated a vast majority of his fan base during the process. Is the Fedor/Couture match up still marketable? Fedor has been known to kill a few washed up, former UFC fighters, so maybe there's something left in this match up.

While the names of Lesnar, Mir, Nogueira, and Couture cast huge shadows over the UFC's up-and-coming Heavyweight Division, there certainly is more than meets the eye when you breakdown the division. Let's have a look at who could be in title contention and who's on the outside looking in.

On the Path to Title Contention

1.) Big Nog- I'm predicting Big Nog to beat Couture at their upcoming showdown at UFC 101 in Portland, Oregon. Nog's submission ability will be too much for Couture. I realize that Nog lost to a very game Frank Mir back in December, but if there's anyone who will be able to rise above a disappointing loss, it will be Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. After defeating Couture, Nogueira can then challenge Brock Lesnar sometime in 2010 in what will be a huge match for the UFC.

2.) Shane Carwin- I didn't think that he would be able to beat Gonzaga, but he proved me, and countless others, wrong with that big right hand. Granted, Carwin is still very green when it comes to fighting but he's got a huge upside. I would like to see Carwin challenge the loser of the Mir/Lesnar fight. That's a good way to put him in title contention quickly.

3.) Cain Velasquez- Personally, I feel that Cain has the brightest upside of any fighter in the Heavyweight Division. He doesn't have time working against him like both Carwin and Couture do. Cain is a dominant wrestler and his striking has come a long way in his short career. Obviously, a showdown with Carwin would be ideal, but it looks like he will have to get past Heath Herring at UFC 99 before challenging the other rising star (Carwin) in the UFC's Heavyweight Division. If Carwin earns a title shot then Velasquez vs. Couture could be decent as well.

4.) Junior dos Santos- At the UFC 90 weigh ins, I told my wife that dos Santos was going to knock out Werdum. She looked at me like I was crazy. Scoreboard, wifey: dos Santos shocked the world and made a name for himself on that night. It's scary how good Junior is considering we haven't even witnessed his ground game yet. This year is going to be extremely productive for dos Santos. I'm expecting Junior to be matched up with a bigger name in his next fight. He's more than likely three or four fights away from being named the #1 Contender.

5.) Pat Barry- Another name that some might not be familiar with, but soon will be accustomed to seeing, is that of Pat Barry. Barry is a dangerous kick boxer who made his UFC debut at UFC 92 with a dominant win over Dan Evensen. Barry is the type of fighter who can turn out your lights without much effort. His only drawback is the fact that we haven't seen enough of his ground game. But when you can control fights with dangerous leg kicks, you usually don't have to worry about the fight actually going to the ground. Barry's next fight is at UFC 98 and is against former King Of The Cage Heavyweight Champion, Tim Hague. Barry would need a dominant showing there, along with two more wins, in order to earn himself a title shot. It's not out of the question to see Barry challenging for the title early in 2011.

Now that the contenders are out of the way, let's have a look at the guys who aren't in title contention and for good reason.

Out of Title Contention

1.) Randy Couture- I'm a pretty big Couture fan, but his career ended when he resigned on a movie set months ago. He didn't have a good showing against Brock Lesnar and that's not always a bad thing, but I just don't see how Couture fits into this division anymore. His upcoming fight with Big Nog is more than likely going to result in a loss. After this, there isn't much more for Couture to do in this division. It's probable for Couture to move back to the 205-pound division and try to make an impact there, but I think that is just wishful thinking.

2.) Gabe Gonzaga- It's not that I am counting Gonzaga out of the title picture as much as I'm just confused on what happens to Gonzaga in big fights. After his brutal KO over Cro Cop, he seems to choke anytime he's placed in a big fight. The recent loss to Carwin proved that Gonzaga isn't going to be ready for a title shot anytime soon. Gabe still has a chance but would likely have to go through Velasquez, and then a re-match with Carwin before being considered for that slot. Unless something drastically changes, I don't see Gonzaga being able to reach that level at the moment.

3.) Justin McCully- Not that Justin was reaching title contention or anything, but his most recent win over Eddie Sanchez might have pushed him up some rankings more than he should have been. McCully will always be a lower-level talent guy who might be able to pick off a mid-level guy. His fight with Gonzaga showed that he wasn't ready, and he's going to need some serious wins in order to move above his low-level status.

4.) Cheick Kongo- It always amazes me how someone as talented as Kongo would screw up a fight like he did against Heath Herring. Then again Kongo did the same thing when he lost to Carmelo Marrero at UFC 64. Moving his training to England was a smart move for Kongo, but I just don't see him beating an elite-level fighter in the UFC. For the record, I don't consider Cro Cop elite-level inside the UFC either. Kongo's next fight at UFC 97 against Antoni Hardonk is crucial for Kongo's future title plans. While I do believe that Cheick will win the fight, I don't see him beating any of the Top 5 title contenders that I have listed; however, I do see him landing various nut shots to the future contenders.

5.) Heath Herring- After being Donkey Kong-punched repeatedly by Brock Lesnar, it's no wonder we haven't seen or heard from Herring lately. Herring was riding high with a victory over Kongo but then ran into "The Next Big Thing." Herring's UFC run will always be remembered for his lack of finishing Big Nog. He's had some ups and some downs. Heath is an exciting fighter, but his inconsistent fighting hurts his credibility. On the bright side, Herring did call me "partner" at UFC 82 before he signed his name with a black sharpie on a black background.

Talking T-Bags
Last week's article brought in a lot of hate from everyone which is just another day on the job. Let's have a look at what all of you thought.

ncshvdavid states: How can you claim FG as one of the weaker champions in UFC history? True compared with Matt Hughes, Chuck and Anderson ANY champ would look week (seeing how BJ Penn has defended his title how many times in the past 34 years?) Forrest beat 2 great fighters- and who knows how good Evans is. Bottom line, Rampage has exactly ONE more title defense than Forrest does.

I will give you that Forrest beat one great fighter in Rampage Jackson; however, it was an extremely close decision that no one else, besides the judges, thought he won. I know with that statement, some of you will say that they are the only ones that count, but remember the hate that Bisping got with his victory over Hamill before you dive bomb me with hate comments. Shogun has proved nothing inside the Octagon and while he was great in PRIDE, this is a "what have you done for me lately world" and quite frankly who has Shogun beat in the UFC? He struggled to stop the takedowns of a 40-year-old man and was horribly gassed in the process. I'm also going to consider that BJ Penn defended his title against Sean Sherk and then took a huge payday fight with GSP. Thus Penn not defending the title isn't important. He's going to be fighting Kenny Florian soon enough and will defeat Florian fairly easily in the process. I guess to answer your question about Forrest being one of the weaker champions in UFC history: it's just an opinion thing. I didn't think that he beat Rampage, and he looked terrible against Rashad. The true test of being a champion is defending the title. Any one can get lucky once, just ask Matt Serra.

Adam is upset: No upsets in the first round? Come on. and 9 beating 8 isnt an upset.

The 8/9 match up is, of course, the most even match up in a tournament. I'm sorry that my lack of upsets hurt you dearly. You apparently didn't make it past the 1st round because I had a 7 seed beating a 2 seed. That's a pretty big upset in my mind. I'm sorry the 1st round wasn't as exciting as the 2nd round. I'm hoping that the NCAA Tournament features all the 15 seeds winning so that you will be happy.

clarkie is snoring: BORING!!

Not really too much to say on this subject. I'm available anytime that you need to go to sleep buddy. Just let me know, and I will be willing to help out!

Guest#1037 calls me a name: Bisping beats okami? Dude, you're a jackass.

I suppose that it's extremely hard for anyone to give Bisping any sort of credit because he comes across as a jerk for the most part. However, Bisping held his own against Rashad Evans in defeat, and I think that Rashad is much better than Yushin. I stated that the fight would be razor-close, but I think that Bisping's striking would be the biggest factor. What's that saying about sticks and stones?

Vordeo challenges one of the fights: Maia over Hendo? Not likely. Hendo takes Maia down and grinds out the decision. On that note, why is Hendo the only one on your card who makes a mistake, when he's among the most experienced guys on the roster? And Goran Reljic, really? Don't think he's fought since 2007.

Why isn't Maia over Hendo likely in your mind? Hendo was scared to death to go to the ground with Palhares, and you think that he will want to take Maia down? That's crazy talk right there. Maia wants the fight to go to the ground. It wouldn't matter what Hendo did on the ground because Maia is that damn good. Hendo wasn't the only fighter to make a mistake in those fights. I just stated that he made a mistake as a way of telling everyone that Maia could make a mountain out of a mole hill. It really has nothing to do with experience. Hendo made a mistake against both Nog brothers and Anderson Silva. I shall give you some slack when it comes to Goran Reljic because he's been injured, but his showing against Gouveia was awesome. It's always hard to come back from injuries in combat sports, and Goran is dealing with that each day, I'm sure. Perhaps you also didn't hear the story about him saving a couple of guys from drowning a few months back. For that heroic fact alone, he was considered for this tournament.

Thanks again to everyone for checking out my article. As always, if you don't agree with something, please let your voice be heard below. I hope that by the time this is posted in the morning that my former Little League teammate, Matt Jaggers, has pulled off a big upset at the Sengoku Featherweight Grand Prix. Remember to support your local MMA and keep your tapping hand strong.