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411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Does Jones/Cormier II Make Sense for MSG?

November 25, 2015 | Posted by Wyatt Beougher

Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA, and I’m your host, Wyatt Beougher! Last week, Eric Moore and Lorenzo Vasquez discussed Holly Holm’s upset win over Ronda Rousey, Mirko Cro Cop’s drug test failure, and more, and it was a close contest, with Lorenzo jumping out to the early lead, the “Draw” option eventually overtaking him, and then both guys making a late push to end up tied, 10-10 (with 7 votes being cast in favor of a draw), so that means it’s yet another draw! This week, I’m thankful that the scoring system that I created for tournament seeding a few years ago actually acknowledges draws, or determining seeding in this year’s tournament would be a nightmare. This week, I’ll be taking on Dan Plunkett on subjects ranging from Neil Magny and Kelvin Gastelum’s career trajectories following their recent fight to the prospective returns of both Georges St. Pierre and Jon Jones. It’s a pre-Turkey Day showdown, so let’s get to the action!

TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
“Handsome” Dan Plunkett
Contributor, 411 MMA Zone
2-1-1

VS

BLUE CORNER
Wyatt Beougher
Host/Reviewer/Columnist, 411 MMA/TV & Movies/Wrestling Zones
0-1-1


1.) While the Neil Magny/Kelvin Gastelum fight could have been awarded to either fighter without major controversy, the fact that Magny won his ninth fight in the past two years and improved to 9-1 in that time frame has all but guaranteed that his next fight will come against a welterweight contender.

Dan Plunkett: FACT I was skeptical of Neil Magny for quite some time. When he won seven consecutive fights in a 15-month stretch, his wins came against the lower tier of the welterweight division. Then Demian Maia routed him in August to kill the streak and that could have been the end of Magny’s rise, but it turned out to be a minor blip. For a mid-level fighter, entering a five-round fight against a welterweight the caliber of Kelvin Gastelum on two weeks’ notice is to essentially accept defeat. Neil Magny proved he’s much better than mid-level. I don’t think there is any denying him a top-15 opponent, and he’ll likely land a top-10 fighter. It would make sense to match him back up with Wonderboy Thompson, who Magny was supposed to fight in January before getting the call for Gastelum. I’d also like to see him fight the fighter he replaced against Gastelum, Matt Brown.

Wyatt Beougher: FACT I re-watched the fight twice, and I agree with Robert Winfree’s assessment in his coverage of the event – the way you score the fight hinges on round three. It was pretty obvious that Magny won the first two and Gastelum the last two, but that third round was the critical one, and while I think the right decision was made, based on how strong Gastelum came on in the third round and for the rest of the fight, I can see why the crowd thought he was the rightful winner. That said, Magny got the official decision, and Dana White, to my knowledge, hasn’t come out and said it was the worst decision he’s ever seen (which he has used on fights with even borderline questionable decisions in the past), so I don’t see any way Magny doesn’t get a top ten (or even top five) opponent the next time he steps into the Octagon.

Realistically, Magny is at least two good wins away from a title fight (probably three, if we’re being honest), but with the way injuries have been killing the UFC of late, a fighter like Magny that is almost guaranteed to have an entertaining fight could legitimately be an injury or two away from finding himself in an impromptu title eliminator. But the most likely next step for him, I think, would be against someone like Matt Brown or even possibly Johny Hendricks.


2.) Conversely, in spite of losing a very close split decision, Kelvin Gastelum will not fall out of favor with the UFC’s brass like he did after his fight with Tyron Woodley and his next fight will likely be against a top fifteen welterweight.

Dan Plunkett: FACT Gastelum did all they could have asked him to do. He took the short notice opponent, he made weight, and he put on a very good and compelling fight. The Woodley fight was a much different story. He was hospitalized in the midst of an awful weight cut and missed weight by 10 pounds. That should have been it for his weekend, but he was allowed to compete the next night and had a horrendous fight with Tyron Woodley. If he’d criticized the Reebok deal (although it hadn’t yet gone into effect) and his pay, he would have hit for the cycle and done everything the UFC hates its fighters doing. Now he’s two fights removed from that weekend, and he put on a good show in Mexico, so things are pretty smooth between Gastelum and the UFC.

Wyatt Beougher: FACT Honestly, this is a FACT for me simply because Gastelum was able to make weight this time around. Had he missed weight like he did for the fight against Woodley, I could see Dana punishing him by forcing him to return to middleweight without the prospect of dropping back down. But the fact that he made weight and could have easily won this fight if one judge had scored the third round differently, or at least earned a draw with a deserved 10-8 score in the fourth frame, which saw him knock Magny down twice and Magny only manage six total strikes. Honestly, I could see Gastelum getting the fight he was scheduled for here, against Matt Brown, as his next fight, or perhaps Thiago Alves, depending on which fighter gets healthy closer to when Gastelum is ready to fight next.


3.) If Henry Cejudo did not sustain a broken shin bone (like he believed he did in his post-fight interview), then he makes sense as the next opponent for Demetrious Johnson, in spite of not looking particularly inspiring in his split decision victory over Jussier Formiga.

Dan Plunkett: FACT It’s unfortunate, too, because Cejudo, 28, is going to improve, perhaps significantly so, in the next year or two. Right now, he isn’t ready for Demetrious Johnson and frankly, nobody in the flyweight division is. That’s a large part of why Cejudo will get a title shot: Johnson has blown away everyone he has fought, and there isn’t anybody else making a splash at 125 pounds. Cejudo is the only guy there for Johnson. Among the division’s top 15 challengers, only Cejudo (4), Joseph Benavidez (4), Ray Borg (3), and Louis Smolka (3) have active winning streaks. Johnson has beaten Benavidez twice, and there less than zero interest in a third bout. Ray Borg is only 22, missed weight in his last fight, and isn’t going to challenge Johnson. Smolka is quite good and exciting, but at 24, he’s not yet ready. Where Cejudo is different is his name value, his unblemished record, and his Olympic gold medal. It’s the biggest unique matchup at flyweight for Johnson; it’s just a shame it’s going to come too soon.

Wyatt Beougher: FACT Cejudo moved to 10-0 with the win, called out Demetrious Johnson after the fight, and, perhaps most importantly, moved to third in the official UFC flyweight rankings. While third normally would probably mean a title eliminator fight, the fact that the only two guys ahead of Cejudo are Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson bodes well for him, considering both guys have already lost to Johnson twice. And while it’s been nearly two years since Benavidez’ last loss to Johnson, I still think the UFC is going to favor the undefeated former Olympic gold medalist who just so happens to be from a demographic that they are making a targeted push towards.


SWITCH!

4.) Dana White is correct – there is nothing of substance behind GSP’s talks of returning to the sport, even though UFC has implemented a more stringent testing program, which St. Pierre had previously said was the biggest roadblock preventing his return.

Wyatt Beougher: FACT I know St. Pierre has enlisted Freddie Roach to guide him through a six-week fight camp to see if he still has the urge to fight, and the UFC has seemingly removed the last hurdle preventing St. Pierre’s return by implementing a more stringent drug testing program, but I just don’t see this happening. St. Pierre is thirty-four years old, and would likely be thirty-five by the time White could get a fight scheduled for him (assuming this six-week training camp is really just a dry run and that he would need another camp prior to the fight, which White and Joe Silva couldn’t even start planning until mid-January or later), which is by no means ancient in MMA terms, but he has been out of action for over two years now and has not fought since tearing his ACL in training back in 2014. I think the biggest reason St. Pierre won’t be stepping back into the Octagon is because, quite simply, he has nothing to prove. Had his last fight been scored in favor of Johny Hendricks (which I maintain that it should have been), then yes, I could see St. Pierre making a comeback to avenge that loss, but at thirty-five, with two surgically repaired ACL tendons, I thinks GSP has a lot more to lose from a potential comeback than he has to gain.

On the flip side, the fact that the top of the welterweight division is full of guys that he’s either already beaten (Johny Hendricks, Carlos Condit) or were considered minor league during his run of dominance (Robbie Lawler, Tyron Woodley), I can certainly see the appeal. In the end, only GSP knows for sure, but I personally don’t think it’s going to happen.

Dan Plunkett: FACT Georges is reportedly doing a test camp to determine whether or not he still has the desire to fight. I’m betting heavily that his mind returns a resounding “No.” Georges walked away from the sport two years ago because he was burnt out. He did push for enhanced drug testing, but the main thing keeping Georges out of the cage was Georges. If he was doing a test camp to see whether he could still physically compete at the level he used to, I would think there’s a good chance of him coming back. However, I can’t see him igniting a desire to fight during a six-week camp when no such desire existed before the camp. Since Georges is only 34, I would bet on “GSP returning to MMA” becomes the next “Fedor negotiating with the UFC” for the next few years.


5.) The trash talk between Dominick Cruz and TJ Dillashaw does little to improve the anticipation for their upcoming fight.

Wyatt Beougher: FACT First off, I am a big fan of Dominick Cruz; that said, until he actually steps into the cage with Dillashaw, I have a hard time believing that this fight is actually going to happen, for the simple fact that every time I get excited for a Dominick Cruz fight with some history behind it, Cruz gets hurt – first it was his rubber match with Urijah Faber, then it was the unification fight with Renan Barao, and then this fight, which was actually announced fourteen months ago. And while it has been mildly entertaining to see Cruz say that Dillashaw stole his style and Dillashaw to counter that Cruz is old and he does it better, the fact that a lot of the talk has turned to the bad blood between Dillashaw (or, more accurately, his trainer, Duane Ludwig) and Team Alpha Male has soured the whole proceedings for me. I have no interest in seeing either Dillashaw or Cruz fight anyone from Team Alpha Male, so keeping the trash talk centered on their bad blood with one another might actually help. Truth be told, I was already excited about this fight, just because I want to see if Dillashaw actually does fight Cruz’ style better than Cruz does, so trash talk would have just been icing on the cake. As it stands, though, this cake is only about half-iced, at best, and even that half isn’t particularly skillfully done.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION Their trash talk hasn’t registered at all and means nothing at the moment because nobody is looking past December. It’s really difficult to gain traction for a fight that isn’t a huge event to begin with when there are multiple huge events before it. Dillashaw vs. Cruz isn’t going to get any attention until UFC 194 is over, and then it still probably won’t get any attention until January 2’s UFC 195 wraps up. However, after that there is an open two-week window for Dillashaw vs. Cruz to be the focus, and at that point all the trash talk will become important and start to build momentum for the fight. There are too many distractions right now, but that will change six weeks from now. That’s when Dillashaw saying Cruz “used to be good” and the like will gain traction in the news cycle and improve anticipation for the fight.


6.) If Jon Jones’ recent Instagram post is correct, and his return happens against Daniel Cormier on April 23rd at the show UFC has tentatively scheduled for Madison Square Garden, putting him on the first New York City card makes more sense than holding him out two more months to fight on UFC 200.

Wyatt Beougher: FACT Honestly, I feel like the UFC is in a win-win situation here. Assuming the final hurdles are cleared and they can run a show at Madison Square Garden, putting New York (state) native Jon Jones on the card is almost a no-brainer, considering he was one of the fighters they used to argue that the sport should be legal in years past. His return fight, whether it is against Cormier or not (and it should be), should perform well, thanks in part to Jones being the best mixed martial artist of this generation and in part because of people who hate him for what he does outside of the cage and are dying to see him lose. And if the MSG card falls through? Jones/Cormier is icing on the cake for UFC 200, which will more than likely feature the Holly Holm/Ronda Rousey rematch and could potentially also feature the return of Georges St. Pierre (if my response to statement number five this week proves to be wrong).

While I can see the logic of holding off the fight until UFC 200, that card is doing to do big numbers even without it, so if they’re also trying to break into the New York City market just two months earlier, Bones/DC is, in my opinion, the fight to do it.

Dan Plunkett: FACT There is no sense in putting Jon Jones on UFC 200 if Holly Holm vs. Ronda Rousey 2 is going to be on that show. As such, there is no better place for his rematch with Daniel Cormier than New York City. It’s a big debut fight for a city where that really matters, because what gets a lot of press attention in New York will get a lot of press attention across the country and world. Cormier vs. Jones is a fight and rivalry that can really take advantage of that attention, because it’s such a heated feud and a very compelling story. Even if the April 23 PPV ends up in Dothan, Alabama, like the last show UFC tried to run in New York State, Cormier vs. Jones still makes more sense for that date than holding it off to play second banana to Holm vs. Rousey, because the two together aren’t greater than the sum of their parts.

[Editor’s Note: My parents and sister have lived in/around Dothan since 2006, and even I forgot that UFC 12 took place there. Of course, it ran the Dothan Civic Center about a dozen years before my sister worked there, so I don’t feel too bad about it. Nice reference on Dan’s part, though. -W]


So who won? Did Dan move to 3-1-1 or was I able to pick up my first win of the tournament season? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!


And that’s it for today, but we’ll be back next week with another contest! As always, if there’s anything you’d like to see featured in a future edition, leave your statement in the comments and I’ll add it in. Let me know what you thought in the comments or on Twitter. And please, be sure to vote!

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