mma / Columns
411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Why is McGregor the Betting Favorite?
Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA, and I’m your host, Wyatt Beougher! Last week, Dan Plunkett and I broke down the career trajectories of both Kelvin Gastelum and Neil Magny, as well as the potential returns of GSP and Jon Jones, and I have to admit, I was shocked that I managed to score a 10-5 win over Dan. When I was editing his responses into the column, there were a few times where I thought to myself, “Man, I wish I had thought of that” and consequently, I was confident that he was going to pick up the victory. Thank you to everyone who voted, and I hope that American readers enjoyed their Thanksgiving holiday and survived Black Friday unscathed. This week, Larry Csonka and Todd Vote start the stretch run to the end of 2015, and they’ll be discussing Conor McGregor being a betting favorite over Jose Aldo, Bellator expanding overseas in 2016, and more!
TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
Larry “Big Bossman” Csonka
Editor, 411 MMA and Wrestling Zones
3-0-0
VS
BLUE CORNER
“The Toddfather” Todd Vote
Contributor, Various 411 Zones
2-2-1
1.) Somewhat surprising split decision aside, Benson Henderson’s win over Jorge Masvidal ensures him a ranked welterweight the next time he steps into the Octagon.
Larry Csonka: FACT I’d say so, for the simple fact that they don’t ask you how you won, just how many you won. At this time, Henderson is 2-0 at welterweight; considering how much of the voting appears to be based off of career achievements and how much the contributors like a fighter, Henderson should receive a spot. Although the “official UFC rankings” don’t mean anything to me personally, mainly due to reasons I discussed, it is what it is. The real question is WILL Henderson make his next appearance in the UFC? He has hinted that he will test the open waters, and if he gets a good offer from Bellator, we may not even see him back in the Octagon.
Todd Vote: FACT Provided his next fight is inside the Octagon, and he decides he wants to stay at welterweight, I don’t see why they wouldn’t bump up his competition a bit. I mean he would have had a ranked opponent this time out had Alves not been injured. If he sticks around in the UFC (which isn’t a given anymore), I think we see the fight we were supposed to get at FN79, Henderson vs. Alves, next.
2.) In spite of losses to George Sullivan and Dong Hyun Kim leaving him with an 0-2 UFC record, Dominic Waters will get another fight inside the Octagon, even with the UFC’s well-documented roster trimming still ongoing.
Larry Csonka: FACT Normally I would go fiction, due to the fact that Waters was finished decisively at UFC Fight Night 79. But the fact is that he was a last minute replacement, around two weeks out, and helping to save a main card fight. Due to the location of the event (South Korea), keeping Dong Hyun Kim on the card was vital for the UFC as they look to grow a new market. Say what you will about a lot of the UFC’s business practices, and lord knows I have in the past, but they give some relief for guys that take fill in fights. Considering how important this fight was for this event, Waters should get one more chance in the UFC.
Todd Vote: FICTION I’m not all too familiar with Waters, but looking at his record, we have a man who wins, mostly by decision, and has now lost two in a row, his first two fights in the UFC. I think it is more likely he would be cut and allowed to go hone his craft some more with a chance of being brought back later.
3.) Conor McGregor is the most surprising betting favorite in the UFC’s history for his upcoming bout with Jose Aldo at UFC 194.
Larry Csonka: FACT Some truth here, I love Conor McGregor. The man has made The Ultimate Fighter so much easier to get through this year because of his antics and I appreciate that. Now I expected the odds to be closer, because while it was on short notice, he did defeat Mendes to win the interim title. But in no way did I ever expect him to be the favorite over a guy that hasn’t lost since 2005 and is 15-0 under the Zuffa (WEC/UFC) banner. There are a lot of reasons people seem to not like Aldo, but the facts are the facts; Aldo has been dominating since 2005 and McGregor did have issues with a guy coming in on short notice. Yes McGregor did do the most important thing, win on the big stage, but that doesn’t get him to be a favorite in my eyes. The bottom line here is that either the oddsmakers know something (which is their job) or this is all a product of the Zuffa hype machine. And if that is the case, good on the UFC; they are building a star and you can’t fault them for that because people actually give a shit about the featherweights due to their work. So while I really love McGregor and he entertains me, I have no clue how he is the favorite here.
Todd Vote: FACT Aside from Mendes, McGregor really still hasn’t beaten a top 5 guy, so this is easily the most surprising betting favorite. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a fair chance in the fight, he does. I’m really surprised that he is the favorite. Has McGregor talked himself into position of being the favorite in the fight?
SWITCH!
4.) Bellator scheduling a handful of shows overseas in 2016 is a risky business proposition that will do the promotion more harm than good.
Todd Vote: FICTION I don’t see any problem with testing the market overseas with a handful of shows. It might end up being a failed experiment, but it isn’t necessarily a bad choice. If they are able to open up a better worldwide market for Bellator, I don’t see that as a bad thing.
Larry Csonka: FICTION I actually do not think so, I actually think that they are approaching this smartly so far. The event in April (in Turin, Italy) is a co-promoted event, as they are working with Oktagon Kickboxing. The card will be a mix of MMA fights from Bellator and kickboxing fights from Oktagon Kickboxing, with the MMA fights airing in the US. Coker is a pretty smart guy in building his companies, and working with Oktagon Kickboxing (who has been in business for 20-years) is a smart way to enter the Italian market. Bellator has shown that they are not afraid to go outside the box and present a show with both kinds of fights, and partnering with an established group in the country that they are debuting in (on the surface) will minimize monetary risks for the company. I can’t sit here and say that this will create a financial windfall and millions of new fans, but looking at the early plans, I appreciate what they are trying to grow the company.
5.) The upcoming Josh Barnett/Ben Rothwell fight is a matchup that makes sense for both fighters.
Todd Vote: FACT Absolutely, Rothwell is on his way up, Barnett wants to keep himself in competition for a title shot, this fight makes sense. Not to mention it could be a really decent heavyweight fight. Yes, this fight makes total sense for both guys. For Rothwell, adding a name like Barnett to his resume will help his chances in his pursuit of a title shot. For Barnett, stopping Rothwell’s rise puts him right back in title contention.
Larry Csonka: FACT Sure, I mean why not, the state of MMA heavyweights is abysmal so for the most part it really doesn’t matter. If you get a win or two, you’re going to get decimated by one of the higher-level guys and go back to where you were prior to that fight. As for this fight, Rothwell is 3-0 with three finishes and Barrett is coming off of a win over Roy Nelson. I love Barnett, but the best thing here would be for Rothwell to win, because with four wins in a row, he will appear to be a threat and a guy that actually earned a potential title shot.
6.) With the Federal Trade Commission completing a second investigation into Zuffa without finding grounds for further action, it is unlikely that the class action lawsuit brought against the UFC by a handful of current and former fighters for unfair business practices will bear any fruit.
Todd Vote: FACT It will not bear any legal fruit, no. Based on that, I will go FACT for my answer. But there is more to it than this. If this many fighters are unhappy, perhaps, even without legal obligation to do so, perhaps Zuffa takes a look at what they are doing and actually try to make it better for the fighters. Time will tell.
Larry Csonka: FACT I am not an expert with legal stuff like this, but from the outside looking in, it will take something huge for the fighters to get any traction here. They may have good intentions, but Zuffa is burying them in paperwork, and to me the most important part, they can outlast the fighters because they have the financial advantage. Sure some lawyers may do the old, “we’ll battle and get ours in the end when we win” but when you get into these huge lawsuits, the big company will fuck the little guy. They will bury them in motions and paperwork, which will lead to the legal team of the fighters needing to spend more to try and go through it all. And then it goes on and on and on, and most of the time the big company will either offer a small settlement or simply outlast the people challenging them, similar to what big tobacco did for years. It’s obviously not an impossible battle, but they’re likely going to need a great legal team and a sympathetic judge to get anywhere.
So who won? Did Larry remain unbeaten or was Todd able to topple 411’s own “Face Who Runs the Place”? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!
And that’s it for today, but we’ll be back next week with another contest! As always, if there’s anything you’d like to see featured in a future edition, leave your statement in the comments and I’ll add it in. Let me know what you thought in the comments or on Twitter. And please, be sure to vote!
Also, follow 411’s various and sundry zones on Twitter for your daily 411 fix!
411 Wrestling Zone Twitter
411 Movies/TV Zone Twitter
411 Music Zone Twitter
411 Games Zone Twitter
411 MMA Zone Twitter
