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411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Did Conor McGregor Prove He Can Beat the Elite Lightweights?

August 24, 2016 | Posted by Lorenzo Vasquez

Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA! I’m your host, Lorenzo Vasquez III, and it is my pleasure to bring to you the fact and the fiction in the mixed martial arts biosphere. A quick thank you to all who voted and left comments last week. It is appreciated and encouraged. This week, we have a UFC 202 filled edition! The event turned out to be quite the spectacle and, whether or not, you were supportive of the immediate rematch between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor, you have to admit the event delivered beyond expectations. But, before we continue, I want thank last week’s competitors, Dino Zee and Wyatt Beougher, who always deliver. They tackled such topics as Conor McGregor spearheading the movement for a fighters union, Michael Bisping’s title win courtesy of the USADA, and whether or not Cris Cyborg should be cutting to 140-pounds. They went at it tooth and nail, but when the dust settled, it was Dino Zee who was left standing with the 13-to-9 victory. Congratulations Dino and thank you both for the grand effort and your contribution.

And now, let’s dig into some of the assumptions, truths, or supposed truths flying around since the conclusion of UFC 202. This week, your live coverage guru and host of the 411 Ground and Pound Radio Show, Robert “The Last rider” Winfree, takes on the “Handsome” one! Yes, we’re talking about the man with the greatest MMA column, “Handsome” Dan Plunkett. They will go toe-to-toe on subjects like Conor McGregor’s ability to go five rounds with the lightweight elite, Anthony Johnson letting Jon Jones know he has to take a backseat, who’s next for Donald Cerrone, and much more! Go grab some grub, sit back, and get comfortable because it’s time for another round of, 411 Fact or Fiction MMA! Let’s get the show going…

TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
“Handsome” Dan Plunkett
Contributor, 411 MMA Zone
0-2-0

VS

BLUE CORNER
Robert “The Last Rider” Winfree
Contributor/Live Coverage Guru/Host, 411 MMA Zone/411 Ground and Pound Radio Show
1-1-0

Despite proving his fighting style will exhaust him inside of two rounds, Conor McGregor showed the technical and calculated brilliance to defeat the likes of the lightweight elite—Khabib Nurmagomedov, Eddie Alvarez, Rafael dos Anjos—should such fights go beyond two rounds.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION I can’t exactly say that McGregor showed the ability to beat the likes of the lightweight elite in the latter rounds against Nate Diaz because the other opponents are completely different matchups. Certainly, McGregor has the ability and power to beat any lightweight, but I reckon his odds of victory against those mentioned would decline after round two. Diaz struggled to get McGregor to the ground, only succeeding at the end of round five, but I don’t see Nurmagomedov or Alvarez having similar issues against a tired McGregor. Against the likes of Nurmagomedov, Alvarez, and dos Anjos, I think McGregor will have to put them away early, hurt them badly over two rounds, or conserve more energy into the latter rounds in order to have a good shot at winning. It’s worth noting that all of those things are entirely possible for him to do.

Robert Winfree: FICTION I was impressed with McGregor’s ability to make adjustments after the first fight with Diaz, but Nate Diaz doesn’t fight like the welterweight elite do. When McGregor gassed in the third round, and the beginning of the fourth, Diaz walked towards him and tried to goad him into a brawl and fired punches when he could close the distance or get the clinch. Diaz’s clinch game is nowhere near as exhausting as that of dos Anjos or Nurmagomedov, Diaz didn’t go for takedowns frequently, and didn’t fight to capitalize on McGregor’s fatigue, he just kept fighting the way he always does. Someone like Nurmagomedov, dos Anjos, or even Frankie Edgar would be able to exploit that fatigue in entirely different ways and keep him tired rather than allowing him to walk away and regain his wind by covering up against the fence. I’m not saying McGregor can’t beat any of those guys, he is still a very good fighter, but against truly elite lightweights his conditioning is still a bit of a weakness.

Despite his impressive run, Cody Garbrandt is not ready for Dominick Cruz.

Dan Plunkett: FACT Is any bantamweight on the planet, save TJ Dillashaw, ready for Dominick Cruz? I don’t think so. Garbrandt is a great talent with stopping power that only a couple guys in the division could match on their best day, but Cruz is the most elusive fighter in the division. Cruz has the ability to take the fight to places that Garbrandt hasn’t experienced at this level. He’ll hit him and avoid getting hit back. He’ll time his takedowns and bring the fight to the ground. He’ll drag the fight into rounds that Garbrandt has never before entered and be as fresh as he was in round one. Garbrandt’s rise has been very impressive, but Cruz is a different animal.

Robert Winfree: FACT But I still want to see him fight for the belt, I fundamentally don’t think anyone is ready for Dominick Cruz. Garbrandt brings a few interesting things to the table though, one being his power and the other being his background. TJ Dillashaw may have turned into a good striker for MMA purposes, but Garbrandt has a successful boxing background and Cruz hasn’t faced a true blue striker on that level yet. Cruz’s game involves a lot of movement that he reversed engineered from highly successful boxers, and while the average wrestler in the sport was completely flummoxed by that perhaps someone with Garbrandt’s background can find openings that others couldn’t. The only other option is a rematch with Dillashaw, and while I really enjoyed their first fight I don’t think a rematch would go any differently. Plus people seem genuinely interested in Garbrandt vs. Cruz, I’m OK with the fight being made even if Garbrandt winds up losing.

If Jon Jones is truly on his way back sooner rather than later, he will have to take a backseat for a title unification bout with Daniel Cormier because Anthony Johnson just showed the world he is ready to take the gold strap.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION If Jon Jones was cleared tomorrow, there would be no debate about it: he would be next for Daniel Cormier. I’m extremely interested to see Johnson rematch Cormier and battle Jones, but no matter how many of Glover Teixeira’s teeth he knocked out or how far they flew, nothing he did on Saturday night could have usurped Jon Jones’ claim to a light heavyweight title shot. Jon is far and away the greatest light heavyweight in the sport’s history, and arguably the best fighter in MMA history. He never lost his title, and then he went in and won the interim title. Sure, his drug test result weakened UFC 200, but if he’s cleared by USADA or receives a minimal sanction, you can’t take the shot away from him. Plus, in financial terms, Cormier vs. Jones is the significantly bigger fight.

Robert Winfree: FACT I’m completely OK with that playing out. I’m not sure I’d pick Johnson to beat Daniel Cormier but he’s earned the rematch, and lest we forget Johnson took that fight with DC on short notice after preparing for Jones when Cormier and Jones couldn’t be much different physically and fight very differently. Jones returning will have interest whenever it happens, and regardless of opponent so I see no harm in running DC and Rumble again with Jones getting a shot at the belt after that fight.

SWITCH!

Conor McGregor needs to defend his featherweight title to legitimize his win over Jose Aldo.

Robert Winfree: FICTION Conor McGregor needs to defend his featherweight title because he’s the featherweight champion. I’m a big believer in the philosophy that championship status is as much an obligation as a reward, the fact that he’s now fought twice outside of that division bothers me but the second half of the question is where I disagree. McGregor didn’t get a premature stoppage or a controversial decision, he knocked Jose Aldo out cold. Unless you’re one of the conspiracy theorists claiming that Aldo took a dive that was a perfectly legitimate win. He needs to defend the belt because that’s what champions are supposed to do not to legitimize what was a perfectly legitimate outcome to a fight.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION His 13 second win seemed pretty legitimate to me. McGregor could give up his featherweight title today; that wouldn’t take away from the fact that he decisively defeated Aldo to become the top featherweight in the world. That doesn’t mean he’d do it again (in fact, I’m leaning toward Aldo in a rematch), but he in no way needs to legitimize that win any further. Sure, McGregor beating Aldo again would add to his legacy, but it shouldn’t make the first win more meaningful in retrospect.

We want Donald Cerrone vs. Lorenz Larkin rather than Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez.

Robert Winfree: FICTION I want Donald Cerrone vs. Robbie Lawler, anything else is a let down. Cerrone trying for gold again would be interesting, especially against a guy he’s already beaten, but Cerrone’s last lightweight fight was a first round TKO loss and there are two or three deserving contenders I don’t want to see him leap frog in that division based on his success at a higher weight class. That said, I’m happy to watch Cerrone fight anyone.

Dan Plunkett: FACT< Mainly, I just want Donald Cerrone at welterweight. “Cowboy” has looked tremendous since moving up in weight with three decisive stoppage victories. I’d like to see how far he can take it at welterweight before he moves back down to lightweight, and Lorenz Larkin, who looked awesome against Neil Magny, would be a good next test. I do believe Cerrone would find great success back down at lightweight and could beat Eddie Alvarez, but he’s been more impressive in his three welterweight fights than he was at lightweight. Let’s ride this one out at 170 for a bit longer.

“The Notorious One” showed great heart and determination and a brilliant game; but, considering how the fifth and final round came to an end; that he exhausted himself again and Nate Diaz was able to make it a war; and that Diaz can say he finished Conor once and Conor failed to finish him, means Diaz still somewhat has the upper hand over McGregor.

Robert Winfree: FICTION Though, neither man really has an upper hand here, they’re both borderline delusional with their self belief and as long as they don’t go full blown delusional that’s perfectly fine for the fight game. McGregor exploited weaknesses in Diaz’s game that have been there forever, he still struggled with his cardio but adapted to fight around that. Perhaps, most importantly there’s a bit of a historical perspective that now favors McGregor: in trilogy fights whoever wins the second wins the third. Liddell vs. Couture, Velasquez vs. JDS, Cruz vs. Faber, Couture vs. Belfort, Ortiz vs. Griffin, GSP vs. Hughes, Sylvia vs. Arlovski (sorry for reminding everyone of their third fight), and Melendez vs. Thomson all hold to that pattern with only Silva vs. Jackson and Penn vs. Hughes really bucking that trend. So if history is any indicator of the future, and it really is, then McGregor now has a theoretical upper hand rather than Diaz for whatever it’s worth.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION I don’t buy that Nate has the upper hand any longer. He had the upper hand for about five months, but losing on Saturday negated that entirely. I can see where the statement is coming from, indicating that Diaz’s finish means more than McGregor’s majority decision, but I were to poll the audience about the outcome of a third fight, most would pick McGregor based on the way the second meeting went. To me, that indicates that it’s McGregor that has the upper hand on Diaz rather than the other way around.

So who won? Did Robert outshine Dan? Or, was Dan able to walk through his opponent? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!

And that’s it for today, but as always, we’ll be back next week with another contest! And please, be sure to vote!

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