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411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Is McGregor vs. Mayweather Doomed?

May 3, 2017 | Posted by Lorenzo Vasquez
Floyd Mayweather Conor McGregor Mayweather vs. McGregor - Leonard Ellerbe

Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA! I’m your host, Lorenzo Vasquez III, and it is my pleasure to bring you the 411 on the fact and the fiction in this biosphere we call professional mixed martial arts. By the way, thank you, for your votes and comments last week. It is much appreciated and encouraged. Last week, two of the hardest hitting 411 capos took to the center of the cage and let it all out over subjects like Al Iaquinta crying over not getting a performance bonus, Cub Swanson’s win over Artem Lobov, and Conor McGregor making $75 million to fight Floyd Mayweather. Both competitors marched forward and unleashed a barrage of bombs in what turned out to be a back and forth beat-down. When the last bell rang the contest was deemed a draw. Thank you, Robert and Jeffrey, for your efforts and contributions.

This week, Dan Plunkett will take another shot at handing Dino Zee his first loss. Expect Dan to hit the gas pedal immediately while Dino puts his incredible defense on display as they tackle subjects like a Showtime executive claiming McGregor vs. Mayweather negotiations are at a standstill, Daniel Cormier doubting he can beat Jon Jones, the ESPN layoffs affecting the UFC’s television deal, and much more! It’s time! Grab your grub and have a seat because it’s time for another round of, 411 Fact or Fiction MMA! Shall we…

TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
Dino “Salad Bar” Zee
Contributor, 411 Wrestling Zone
7-0-1

VS

BLUE CORNER
“Handsome” Dan Plunkett
Contributor, 411 MMA Zone
3-5-0

Showtime executive, Stephen Espinoza’s claim that negotiations for Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather are at a standstill and that UFC is afraid of McGregor walking away from the MMA promotion after said fight, is further proof McGregor will defend his UFC Lightweight title before he fights Mayweather.

Dino Zee: FICTION Only because I don’t consider any of the above as “proof” of anything other than the negotiations not going so well at this point in time. Even if Conor’s next 2 fights are in a UFC cage, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be in a fight where he is defending his 155 title. He could do the third fight with Nate, or maybe he’ll be gifted a shot at the Welterweight Champion. There is absolutely no way to know what Conor’s next UFC fight will be, so even if he’s in a UFC cage his next couple trips out there, there’s no way of knowing if he’ll do something he’s never ever done before, and defend a championship that he holds.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION In the same interview, Espinoza told Chris Mannix that the fight needed to happen soon or it may not happen at all since Mayweather has not fought since September 2015 and recently passed 40. He also stated, “…if they don’t move relatively quickly, people may move on. People may tire of it.” Mind you, this is coming from an executive directly involved in the Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao mega-fight that did bigger business than any fight in history despite talk of the fight dragging on past both fighters’ best days. At the very least, there are clear tinges of true to some of Espinoza’s statements. The UFC should be afraid that McGregor would walk after fighting Mayweather; in fact, this fight really isn’t all that beneficial to them. It could also be true that, if talks drag out, Mayweather will lose interest. Perhaps the talks are even at a standstill at this point. However, as a whole, Espinoza’s remarks come across as contrived to strengthen his side’s position and push UFC and McGregor to make the fight as soon as possible. He’s dangling a golden carrot in front of them and promising it won’t be there for long, but it will likely be there longer than he’s letting on.

For the record, let’s not make any mistake about it: there are real obstacles to overcome to make this fight and UFC may have to put aside its best interests in order to make it. However, I don’t take Espinoza’s comments as evidence that the fight isn’t going to happen next for McGregor.

It’s time for Nate Diaz to saddle-up and fight Tony Ferguson while we wait for Conor McGregor’s next move.

Dino Zee: FACT Selfishly, I just want to see Nate fight, because I enjoy watching Nate fight. More selfishly, I’m a huge fan of Ferguson and would love to see him in a fight that’s almost guaranteed to be rather entertaining. Sensically, we have two guys who are basically waiting for Conor, albeit for different reasons completely. Why not let them fight each other, and the winner has the UFC’s Super Duper Trustworthy Golden Ticket to Fight Conor McGregor whenever he feels like fighting in the UFC again.

Outside of all of that, speaking about Nate specifically, yes, I feel we’ve reached a – pardon me – shit or get off the pot moment. (Waits for the weed jokes to pass). While I’m sure Nate is more than content to wait for Conor, and that he probably believes he’s absolutely earned that right, he needs to stay relevant in this game, and fighting twice in 2016 – going 1 – 1 in those fights – just isn’t going to be enough. Everyone at 155 wants a piece of Conor, and Nate’s going to have to do a little extra if he wants to hold his place in line. Should he beat El Cucuy, I think he would have done just that. Until then, it just seems like desperate posturing at this point.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION Why should he? Nate Diaz made a lot of money fighting Conor McGregor in 2016, perhaps enough to set him for life. McGregor, recognizing Diaz as the best-drawing opponent he’s ever had and the biggest money fight of any other lightweight in the UFC, won’t be against a Diaz fight down the line if he continues on in this sport. To fight Tony Ferguson, Diaz would risk riches and injury for a fraction of what he would make with McGregor. So what’s the upside for Diaz? In the past year, UFC has shown a penchant for booking based on money rather than merit, but a bad loss to Ferguson would hurt Diaz’s chances, and his current position is pretty strong. The promotion’s loan repayments aren’t going away anytime soon, and as a result, that booking strategy isn’t going anywhere either. Nate Diaz can sit on the sidelines and get punched in the head as long as he pleases.

The recent ESPN layoffs signify the UFC will have to renovate their television deal(s) and presentations in the near future to keep up with market. changes.

Dino Zee: FACT Yeah, that sounds right. Sorry, I’m not a huge expert on this kind of stuff, and I hate people who pretend to be experts, so I feel a bit fraudulent in opining. However, from the little I know, I’d assume that, yes, deals will need to be done, probably at lower amounts, and the dependency on cable TV overall will have to be cut back. I do wonder how something like UFC’s Fight Pass might be able to protect them a little bit from this scenario (in much the same way that WWE is able to exist without a huge PPV support system), especially when considering that, unlike WWE’s Network, people with Fight Pass do still have to order the pay per views at price.

But I really have more questions than answers about this, so I’ll just say “Fact” from a “that seems correct” standpoint. Hey, I can admit what I don’t know.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION There may be small changes and a renewed push for over-the-top distribution (although not on a major scale), but by and large the UFC has already planted its seeds in the television market and we will see what harvest they bring next year when they begin to negotiate a new TV deal. Even as the television landscape changes, nothing immediate is going to change the fact that UFC’s largest revenue streams are pay-per-view and traditional television contracts. In two years, when the UFC has a brand new contract and may or may not be on Fox, their two largest revenue streams will still be pay-per-view and traditional television contracts. In all likelihood, they will not get the kind of yearly rights fee that WME-IMG were hoping for when the purchased the promotion last summer, but they should still see a healthy increase from the current deal, which likely pays them roughly $150 million this year and will culminate at $168 million next year. Comparatively, UFC Fight Pass brought the company roughly $14 million in 2015. There is room to grow there, and Fight Pass may be a facet of the new television deal, but right now there is no reason to do a hard pivot away from the traditional media that still promises riches in the near future.

SWITCH!

Al Iaquinta’s feud with the UFC and Dana White may actually help him become a seller; thus, finally getting him his long-awaited pay boost.

Dan Plunkett: FACT A large part of becoming a star in this sport is getting noticed, and from there getting remembered. It was impossible not to notice Al Iaquinta when he knocked out Diego Sanchez two weekends ago, and people are going to remember Al raging on the UFC and Dana White for days after his fight. People are going to want to see his next fight, and people are going to want to hear what he has to say about it. If the UFC is afraid of Iaquinta rocking the boat, they’ll give him tough fights and cut him after he loses a couple. If they aren’t afraid of Iaquinta getting noticed by ripping on the promotion, Iaquinta will be a much bigger star when his contract ends compared to when he signed it.

Dino Zee: FACT It *may*, but he’s going to have to fight more than once every two years, which is what will keep him from getting that raise. Iaquinta’s story has intrigued me for a while now, basically since he made headlines by crying about fans booing him after he won a questionable decision over Jorge Masvidal. Since then, the guy has done well to keep himself in the news with his “poor me” story, and while I usually love anyone that rails against the fickle UFC machine, I just, at this time, don’t feel like Al’s done quite enough to warrant all of his griping. He’s a top fighter, has had good showings, comes from a good camp, and continues to improve. The opportunities he wants will come if he just takes the opportunities the UFC throws him when they offer fights. If you’re hurt, obviously don’t fight. But if you’re just sulking because you don’t think that things are fair – even if that’s your right to do so – you might not end up with what you wanted. I hope Iaquinta knows what he’s doing because I’d hate to see a fighter with his promise flame out over things that could be rectified with a little effort from both sides.

By demanding Jon Jones accept a July bout with him instead of a tune-up fight, Daniel Cormier may be unknowingly showing us he has doubt he can beat Jones on any night other than the night he returns after a long layoff.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION There aren’t many fighters that make it to Cormier’s level that doubt their ability to beat the best fighters in the world. Certainly, Cormier is smart and is likely aware that his best chance to beat Jones is coming off a long layoff; he was sure he would have beaten the Jones that knocked off Ovince Saint Preux last April. However, I don’t read anything more into this than Cormier angling to get Jones to fight him at a time most advantageous to him.

Dino Zee: FICTION I’ve seen this thought put out there quite a bit in my MMA reading, and while I can at least see where that thought comes from, I don’t agree with it. Cormier certainly doesn’t endear himself to fans by saying things like “The Jon Jones that fought OSP would get destroyed by me,” while then campaigning for Jones immediately without a tune-up fight (which would thus give us, theoretically, the Jon Jones that fought OSP). It’s not the best look from Cormier, but at the same time, if Jones is due a shot, then he should take it. Cormier knows that Jones losing the tune-up fight completely kills his own legacy, as everything Cormier can hope to be in this game, at this point, all stems from his ability to be the one that finally earned an actual victory over Jon Jones.

So, even if that means demanding the shot as soon as possible, possibly against the *not* best version of Jones, you have to do it. You can’t risk Jones slipping on a banana peel to someone else, and taking your moment away. Furthermore, if Jones is good enough to be handed a shot, then he should be good enough to get himself into shape for a fight against a US Olympian without much trouble, too. I definitely see the point of view from those who think Cormier’s showing that he doesn’t think he can beat Jones, I just think the more important reason he’s demanding the fight with Jones is that he needs to be the one that beats him, and doesn’t want to risk losing that credential to someone else.

If Jon Jones isn’t getting the next light heavyweight title shot then Glover Teixeira should get it over Jimi Manuwa.

Dan Plunkett: FICTION You could argue that Teixeira is a bit more deserving than Manuwa, but there is much more momentum behind Manuwa as a challenger. In the “what have you done for me lately” category, Manuwa has scored two memorable knockout victories, while Teixeira went to a forgetful decision against Jared Cannonier and lost to Anthony Johnson in 12 seconds. Light heavyweight Daniel Cormier has already begun to build up a fight with Manuwa as a backup in case the Jones fight doesn’t work out, and it wouldn’t make any sense to switch gears at this stage and go with Teixeira, who remains near the top of the division but doesn’t have much excitement surrounding him.

Dino Zee: FICTION It’s not pretty when you compare the two, as neither really have a great win recently. Since August of 2015, Glover’s beaten OSP, Patrick Cummins, Rashad Evans’ Corpse, and Jared Cannonier, while getting crushed by Rumble Johnson in 13 seconds. Meanwhile, April of 2015, Manuwa beat Jan Blachowicz, OSP as well, and Corey Anderson, with a loss of his own to Rumble Johnson, getting KO’d in the second round. None of their wins are that impressive overall. Both men are known as brutal fighters with a high finish percentage. Still, Manuwa’s not yet fought for the title and even had a little instant-drama with Cormier after Cormier’s win over Rumble. That feud, to me, is enough to put Manuwa in the title fight instead of Glover.

While neither has a super killer reason to get the next shot, I’d still strongly lean Manuwa over Glover, provided Jones isn’t next in line. I think that’s the more fair fight to make.

So who won? Did Dan hand Dino his first loss, or is Dino on the verge of becoming the 411 Fact or Fiction MMA G.O.A.T.? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!

And that’s it for today but, as always, we’ll be back next week with another contest! And please, be sure to vote!

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