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411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Is Wanderlei to Bellator a Slam Dunk Signing?

February 3, 2016 | Posted by Wyatt Beougher

Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA, and I’m your host, Wyatt Beougher! Last week, prohibitive favorite to replace me as host of this column (Evan Zivin) took on guy with no life who spends every weekend recapping MMA shows for you, the readers (Robert Winfree), and they discussed the potential of Conor McGregor actually pushing the UFC to allow him to co-promote his fights. Both guys did an excellent job, but when the dust settled, Winfree was able to snag an even fifty percent of the vote, earning an 18-15 win. This week, Larry Csonka takes on Alex Rella in a rematch from the first tournament that I was responsible for a few years back, a matchup that saw the unheralded Rella upset the Boss en route to winning the tournament. Will history repeat itself here? With Larry overflowing with the power of Mil Muertes thanks to covering the always-excellent Lucha Underground, it’s going to be a tall task for Alex, but if anyone is up for it, it’s the guy who styles himself as Little Mac, so let’s get to the action!

TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
Larry “Big Bossman” Csonka
Editor, 411 MMA and Wrestling Zones
2-3-1

VS

BLUE CORNER
Alex “Little Mac” Rella
Contributor, 411 MMA Zone
0-1-0


1.) While it looks like the UFC will get the Anthony Johnson vs Jon Jones fight that they missed out on last year due to Jones’ legal issues, the UFC on FOX 18 main event fight between Ryan Bader and Anthony Johnson proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Bader will never be more than a gatekeeper in the light heavyweight division.

Larry Csonka: FACT I think so, he put together a great run (winning five UFC fights is no joke) but who did he really beat? He beat old man Perosh, a never was Cavalcante, OSP who is in the same boat he is, the always refusing to evolve Phil Davis, and Rashad Evans. It’s impressive to win the five fights, but let’s not try to think that he was a worldbeater. There is a clear hierarchy in the LHW division; you have Jon Jones, then you have Daniel Cormier and then Johnson. From there you have guys like Gustafsson, Bader, Glover, and OSP, and then you have the names that used to mean something (Henderson, Machida, Shogun, Henderson) and then the rest of the guys. The Gustafsson, Bader, Glover, and OSP guys will be great Fight Night main eventers and put together runs, but they will never be the top of the division when you have Jones, Cormier, and Johnson at the top. And there is nothing wrong with that, because not everyone is the star. Bader is one of the more successful TUF winners, has had a good career and still has some years in him to make money. He’s just not a top contender, and has the black mark of submitting to Tito Ortiz in 2011. The only thing worse than that is submitting to Tito Ortiz in 2011? Submitting to Tito Ortiz in 2014 (sup Alexander Shlemenko?).

Alex Rella: FACT It pains me to say this as Ryan Bader has been one of my favorite fighters for years (yea, I know), but he is a high level gatekeeper and it is unlikely he will ever be more than that. He’ll likely be a top five light heavyweight for years to come, but he has never been able to take that next step up when given a chance to compete against truly elite fighters. He’s come close to a title shot several times, but Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida, Glover Teixeira, and now Johnson have all finished him.

Plus, UFC management doesn’t really want to give him a title shot either. He should have challenged Cormier for the title back at UFC 192, but the UFC opted for Gustafsson instead. Bader was on a four-fight winning streak and just defeated Phil Davis, Gustafsson was just KTFO by Johnson. One clearly deserved it over the other and they just didn’t want to give it to Bader. Being a gatekeeper for the title contenders isn’t the worst spot in the world; he’ll make a lot of money doing so. It’s just unlikely he’ll be able to put together another long winning streak or be able to improve that much at this point in his career. This was his chance to demand a title shot and he couldn’t pull it off.


2.) In spite of being outpointed by Josh Barnett throughout the entirety of the fight, Ben Rothwell’s surprising submission of Barnett (the fourth fight in his current win streak), combined with the fact that he was the last fighter to beat third-ranked contender Alistair Overeem, should bump him up in the heavyweight rankings and potentially put him in position to fight for the heavyweight championship depending on the injuries at the top of the division.

Larry Csonka: FACT FACT, and an easy one. The heavyweight division in MMA, as I have said numerous times, is largely shit. You have a few top guys, and then a huge drop off in skill level and/or marketability. Werdum is the champion; but then Cain keeps getting hurt and looks toasted due to years of rigorous training. JDS lost to Overeem (who is off contract and negotiating a new deal, with a three-fight winning streak), Miocic has potential and has two straight wins, but that’s over Arlovski and Hunt. There is just a whole lot of meh and not a lot of momentum for me. With Overeem out negotiating a new deal, Rothwell is a guy with four straight wins, and those are all finishes. He has a good story, has a wacky charisma, and feels as if he has earned the short. Give it to him, heavyweight can draw well, and to a degree it doesn’t matter out of this bunch who they put in there for a title shot. I actually hope Rothwell gets a title shot and wins just to fuck it all up.

Alex Rella: FICTION It was the biggest win of his career and he’s now a legitimate top five heavyweight, but he doesn’t get a title shot just yet. White seems sure of Velasquez coming back soon and getting the next title fight against Werdum. If Velasquez weren’t able to return, it’s likely that Stipe Miocic would go back into the title fight. Rothwell isn’t in a bad spot though. If Velasquez is healthy, the easy number one contender fight to make is Rothwell vs Miocic. I would definitely put him ahead of Overeem in the rankings, but Velasquez and Miocic are still closer to title shots at this point in time.


3.) Sage Northcutt’s loss to Bryan Barberena will do little to derail his upward momentum in the UFC, in spite of Barberena taking the fight on only eight days’ notice.

Larry Csonka: FACT It will do little to derail him because the UFC will keep shoving him down the fan’s throats as a new star. And I get that, he’s young, he’s good looking, he has a big background in martial arts; he is everything they want to push as a star. Unfortunately this is not pro wrestling, and you just can’t book all the wins to make the star. This fight was such a mistake, and his camp should never have taken it. I get that it is a huge opportunity on FOX, but he had fought six times since April of 2015. On top of that, he lost his original opponent and moved up to 170 to stay on the card. These would have been red flags for me. And then there is the fight. Many detractors of Northcutt had said, “the first time he gets hurt, the first time he gets in deep trouble, we’ll see how much he has.” He got hurt in the fight, he got in an uncomfortable position, and he wanted out so he tapped out. Sure, in theory you can tap people from the position that Barberena had, but it’s such a low percentage way to do it that you only tend to get a submission when someone is scared or has never been trapped in that position. Barberena was still in the half guard and on the wrong side; he had a strong hold but no positioning. Northcutt threw a couple of shots, looked panicked, wanted out and got out by tapping. Hopefully this is something he learns from, and takes some time to rest and get into a real gym/camp/team going forward. He’s only 19, and has a lot to learn. But I can imagine Dana White just throwing shit when he lost – first Ronda, then Paige, and now Sage. Thankfully he still has Conor.

Alex Rella: FICTION This really hurt Northcutt’s momentum. Any logical fan knows no fighter will remain undefeated forever, but he took a lot of criticism for this one. Barberena took the fight on short notice and many question the submission hold itself. Fighters and fans all over the place are questioning the toughness of Northcutt claiming he tapped too soon or he just merely wimped out. Whether or not there is any merit to these critics, Northcutt’s stock took a huge hit. Though he is only 19 and still has all the potential in the world, he’s just going to be a joke for cynical fans for a little while. A modest winning streak or more highlight reel finishes will help to remove this negative stigma, but the UFC won’t be able to hype him as the next big thing for awhile.


SWITCH!

4.) Assuming Wanderlei Silva can even get licensed to fight in the United States, which is not a guarantee in spite of his lifetime ban in Nevada being overturned, he would actually be an excellent fit for Bellator’s current business model.

Alex Rella: FACT Absolutely, Wanderlei Silva would be a great fit for any other company right now. Despite being suspended and getting older by the second, Silva is still one of the most popular fighters of all time and people will tune in to see him fight on free television. He’s years past his prime, but Silva still wouldn’t fall into that senior circuit at Bellator at only 39. There’s plenty of intriguing match-ups to make. Silva vs Tito Ortiz, King Mo, or even Fedor would draw huge numbers. The Axe Murderer vs Kimbo Slice? That would without a doubt be the highest drawing Bellator fight ever. While it has been a couple years now, Silva was looking pretty good before his suspension too. His wins over Cung Le and Brian Stann were beyond awesome and even his loss to Rich Franklin was a great fight. If Silva can get licensed to fight in the United States, Bellator needs to sign him as soon as they can.

Larry Csonka: FACT Bellator is about using older fighters as attractions to draw an audience for their company, and a 39-year-old Wanderlei Silva who hasn’t fought in three years would fit the mold. Wanderlei still has a fanbase, still has a group of people that think he was wronged by the UFC and they will either pay or tune in to watch him fight. And if Bellator can get him for a good price and move tickets and TV numbers, more power to them. I will say this for Bellator, they are doing what others always failed to avoid, they aren’t trying to be the UFC and there is an audience for that. As long as Viacom is happy in what they have bought into, it gives MMA fans something else to watch and gives more fighters a place to try an earn a living. It may not be for everyone, but it is for someone, and there is nothing wrong with that.


5.) While Dana White is optimistic about Cain Velasquez’ recovery timetable from his upcoming back surgery, Velasquez’ injury history would suggest that it will take significantly longer than four weeks for him to return to training.

Alex Rella: FACT I’m just so tired of Velasquez being in the title picture. He averages about one fight a year and almost all of his fights have been delayed or pushed back. Dana White loves Velasquez and understandably so because he is an amazing fighter, but it’s gotten to the point that I’ll believe he’s actually fighting when I see him walking to the cage. I hope it’s only four weeks, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Velasquez ends up sitting out the rest of 2016. He’s a great fighter, but his injuries have created log jams in the heavyweight division for years.

Larry Csonka: FACT I have a hard time imagining Cain can be back and training heavily in four weeks; in fact I have a hard time thinking he’s back to doing much of anything in four weeks. In the fight with Werdum, a lot of people like to discuss that Cain got tired due to altitude and that is why he lost. And there is something to that because it certainly did not help. I am one of those that feel Cain is basically shot, due to the years of training and various injuries he has gone through. But now he is having issues with his back, which will require surgery. You can get past knees, hands, and other injuries, but when you start having back problems, traditionally your days are limited in sports. I just think that this will be too much, and if he does return, he’s likely never going to be the same. The Cain train just feels derailed.


6.) With fights between Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua either signed or being discussed, it serves to highlight how drastic the drop off in talent is in the UFC’s light heavyweight division after the top three or four fighters.

Alex Rella: FICTION Yea the light heavyweight division is in a weird spot right now. Jones, Cormier, and Rumble are elite fighters at the top and then you have a couple really good fighters in Bader, Gustafsson, and Teixeira. Even the jump between those two tiers of fighters is pretty big and after that it’s just kinda bleh. There’s aging veterans like Evans, Shogun, and Little Nog that are still respectable fighters, but will never be in title contention again. Then you have guys like Cummins, OSP, and Manuwa who are also good fighters, but they get knocked off by the top guys whenever they put together a solid winning streak. The only prospect in the top 15 is Corey Anderson and I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see him developing into a title contender in the future. The top guys have dominated so much that they make the rest of the top 15 look like average fighters even though they’re still pretty good. The division will be stagnant like this for awhile unless some veteran has an epic resurgence or a young fighter climbs the rankings fast.

Larry Csonka: FACT We discussed the LHW division earlier in this column, and this really feels like a fine way to close things up. All four of these guys feel like special attractions at best. I have no desire to see Henderson continue fighting, because when he enters the cage I actually fear for his safety. Shogun is just a guy to me, partially beaten up from his fights in PRIDE and partially suffering from BJ Penn syndrome. Rashad’s injuries kept him out for almost two years, and he looked rough as hell in his loss to Bader. Machida is finally slowing down in the last year, which happens when you get older, but that takes away from his game, which was quickness, angles, and the ability to be elusive. These guys have a name, these guys have a place if they want to fight, but they are nothing more than special attractions for the company.


So who won? Was Alex able to dethrone 411 MMA’s Bald Bull, or did the Csonkamaniacs continue to run wild? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!


And that’s it for today, but we’ll be back next week with another contest! As always, if there’s anything you’d like to see featured in a future edition, leave your statement in the comments and I’ll add it in. Let me know what you thought in the comments or on Twitter. And please, be sure to vote!

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