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411 Fact or Fiction MMA: Will UFC 197 Set a New PPV Record?
Welcome back to another edition of 411 Fact or Fiction MMA, and I’m your host, Wyatt Beougher! Last week, Dan Plunkett and Jonathan Solomon busted out their crystal balls and discussed the year 2016, and when the polls closed, Solomon edged Plunkett out, 8-6, which was good for nearly 54% of the total vote. Excellent effort from both guys and a big thank you to everyone who voted. This week, Scott Kuczkowski takes on regular commenter and Fact or Fiction participant Eric Moore, and they’ll be talking about UFC 197, Mirko Cro Cop’s recent disciplinary action at the hands of the USADA, and more, so let’s get to the action!
TALE OF THE TAPE
RED CORNER
Scott “Kuch” Kuczkowski
Contributor, 411 MMA Zone
0-4-1
VS
BLUE CORNER
Eric “Gimme Some” Moore
Commenter/Fact or Fiction MMA Participant, 411Mania
1-2-1
1.) Zuffa stacking March’s UFC 197 with both Conor McGregor vs Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight championship and Holly Holm vs Miesha Tate for the women’s bantamweight championship could see them potentially have two events in 2016 (UFC 200 being the other one) that break the PPV record currently held by UFC 100.
Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION This is hard to say this far out, but I’m going FICTION right now. UFC 100 did 1.6 million buys, which was probably the best any card is going to do until the UFC gets another star like Brock Lesnar. Sure, Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor draw big numbers, but neither of them draws like Brock did. Here’s some perspective: The UFC has broken 1 million PPV buys 10 times, and 4 of those cards were headlined by Brock Lesnar. Plus, it didn’t hurt that GSP vs Thiago Alves and Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping were the lead-up for the UFC 100 main event; that’s 3 fights worthy of headlining their own respective cards. McGregor vs RDA and Holm vs Tate on the same card will probably do well, probably breaking a million buys, but I don’t see them breaking 1.6 million buys, especially if the rest of the card is dog shit (which the UFC has done in the past). In perspective, UFC 194 drew 1.2 million buys with tons of promotion for Aldo vs McGregor and an incredibly stacked card that also had a Middleweight Title fight, so there is a chance they could do it again. But if the UFC gets lazy with the rest of the card, then it probably won’t happen. Perhaps UFC 200 will be stacked like UFC 100 was, maybe with the return of GSP or with Rousey rematching Holm, but unless Brock Lesnar is making a return to the cage (he isn’t), then I don’t think it will break UFC 100’s buyrate.
Eric Moore: FICTION You know, sure it would be cool to see 200 be a big spectacle with the largest names and whatnot, but that would ultimately mean the cards leading up to it will remain good but not great because McGregor and RDA, or Holm, will all be on the shelf a little longer. I would rather they fight when available, fight often, and fight well, regardless of the number attached to the card.
Plus, I don’t like the idea that they want to hold any fighters back for 200 because the magic of 100 wasn’t just the fighters, but how those fights happened and how they came to happen. It was lightning in a bottle, so to speak, with Brock Lesnar’s crazy cross-sport appeal (and freakish size and athleticism) along with GSP, who was firmly cementing his spot as one of the best, and a blood feud-driven Hendo vs Bisping, not to mention the UFC’s meteoric rise into mainstream sports at the time. It all came to a head at 100 in a relatively perfect way. Now, 7-ish years later, there isn’t really anything as compelling going on, unless Holm comes out unscathed and has the rematch with Rousey, McGregor gets a matchup with Pettis, and Jones v Cormier gets booked as well. Even then, it’s gonna be a hard run at, what, 1.5mil buys? 1.6mil? It could maybe do it, but I wouldn’t want to pause the first half of the year, more or less, and hold my breath in hopes that it comes to fruition.
I say make each of the cards the best you can regardless of the number.
2.) The recent report that suggests that the USADA suspended Mirko Cro Cop not for a failed drug test, but for the admission of use of HGH is a clear indication that the particulars of the UFC’s Anti-Doping Policy are not nearly as transparent as they should be.
Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION I don’t understand how transparent people expect the policy to be. Isn’t the goal of the policy to catch people who are using performance enhancing drugs, and even identify those who are using masking agents and all other types of synthetic shit that the state athletic commissions haven’t a hope to detect? Isn’t that one of the basic stated (and nuanced) particulars of the policy? Because if the goal is to identify cheaters, and someone admits to cheating simply because they expected to get caught, then that person should be punished. I kind of think it’s regardless that Mirko’s tests came back clean when he admitted to using HGH even though he knew it was banned. Is that even an argument? Is there a suggestion that he shouldn’t be punished without a failed test? I’m fine with the transparency of the policy.
Eric Moore: FICTION The initial report from a month or two ago was not exactly clear on the cause, other than a substance violation. Later in the month, it was reported that he admittedly used HGH within the timeframe of the testing, not that he failed the test. I don’t think the test results themselves actually came into play at all or a failed test was ever officially announced, but I could be wrong here, and if I am wrong, well, my bad. (source).
At any rate, had he kept that info to himself, he probably would have snuck past and have been able to compete, but the fact is, he informed both the UFC and the USADA that he injected HGH into his shoulder to try to heal a lingering injury. That was the cause of the red flags and eventual two year ban. I don’t think this is an issue with the policy as I’m sure the use of HGH or other non-specified substances (section 4) was made very clear from the get-go and, though he did not fail a test, admission of guilt is equivalent, so this is a clear violation that is well within the realm of the policy and a suspension is justified. A desperate man resulted to desperate measures to heal an injury and openly admitted to it, so he faces the music. Seems clear-cut to me.
Maybe there are still gray areas within the Policy itself that could use some clarity or expanded information/definition (it’s 20 pages long, so I haven’t read it all… call me lazy, it wouldn’t be a lie…).
Read for yourselves here.
3.) The winner of Sunday’s Eddie Alvarez/Anthony Pettis fight will be the rightful number one contender for whoever wins the aforementioned RDA/McGregor lightweight title fight.
Scott Kuczkowski: FACT This seems like easy matchmaking if the winner can stay healthy. Alvarez looked good over Melendez after losing his debut to Cerrone while Pettis looked great in all his fights leading up to his loss to RDA. The only other people in the Top 5 are Cerrone, who just lost to RDA, and Tony Ferguson, who I think should have to beat a Top 5 fighter to get a crack at the championship. Aside from the names I mentioned, there isn’t really anyone on the list deserving of a title shot, so I’m fine with it.
Eric Moore: FACT I think this is a safe FACT. Pettis is the darling of the LW division and getting a win over a guy in the Top 5 will be more than enough for him to get a crack at RDA again, or potentially a new champ in McGregor (which is a dream fight of sorts and what the UFC wants to see, I’m sure). Alvarez, on the other hand, came in with some heavy steam behind him, only to stutter a bit, dropping a decision to Cowboy. The win over Gil was big in helping him back, though, and beating Pettis, the aforementioned darling, will be enough to catapult him to the top. It’s a shame Nurmagomedov wasn’t able to fight Ferguson, because that would have most likely been the #1 contender’s bout (if Khabib would have come out on top, mind you… because a Ferguson win would have still made Pettis/Alvarez for #1 contendership, methinks). With Nurmagomedov on the shelf (and questionable on a return), and Cowboy losing in pretty dominant fashion (along with Johnson’s momentum screeching to a halt), it’s wide open for Pettis or Alvarez to take this weekend.
Side Note: Who smells a Ferguson/Diaz bout for #1 afterwards? I kinda think the UFC wouldn’t mind a McGregor/Diaz fight and if Nate gets another W, especially over a top contender who’s riding a nice win streak in Tony, it will be hard not to pull the trigger. Just think of the banter those two would fire off at press events…
SWITCH!
4.) While Conor McGregor’s response to Floyd Mayweather was filled with his usual hyperbole, his refutation of Mayweather’s claim that McGregor and Ronda Rousey were popular because of their race was otherwise spot-on.
Eric Moore: FACT I think his more serious response was exactly what he needed to say. McGregor’s schtick is to be the ‘bad guy’ who antagonizes his opponents, yet he still remains humble and respectful in victory. He understands the show versus the fight versus the life afterwards, whereas Mayweather only understands money and claiming he is the best. That is the difference between confidence and cockiness. Mayweather is confident in his ability, and has every right to be, but has shown time and again disrespectfulness to others, such as his comments about McGregor and Rousey (not to mention his little feud with Rousey from before). He continually speaks on things he doesn’t fully understand, such as this race claim for popularity, and will continue to do so for as long as he remains relevant. Maybe race does have something to do with it, though it didn’t seem to hinder Anderson Silva (a Brazilian) or Jon Jones (an American black man) at their times on top (not to mention countless others who are of many races/heritages). If race is a factor here, though, it’s far from the only one and far from the most prominent.
Scott Kuczkowski: FACT Yeah, it was good, but I think the entire thing is stupid and I don’t know why McGregor even wasted his time with Mayweather. The only reason Mayweather says stuff like this is because he’s done fighting and he doesn’t have anything else to do with his time. The reason McGregor is popular is because he talks a really good game, says some outlandish shit during interviews, and then goes out there and soundly beats his opponents. The reason Rousey is popular is because she’s a pretty good looking woman in combat sports and was seemingly unbeatable until her last fight. The reason that Mayweather isn’t as popular as those two is because his interviews aren’t overly entertaining and he seems like a typical rich prick; that’s the type of stuff that will turn people off and make them not like someone. Mayweather can try to cry that it’s a race thing, but then how does he explain the enduring popularity of someone like Mike Tyson? Mayweather isn’t as popular as he could be because he isn’t as likable or entertaining as Rousey or McGregor.
5.) With SpikeTV’s tape-delayed airing of Rizin Fighting Federation’s New Year’s Eve debut event peaking at 271,000 viewers (during Fedor Emelianenko’s return to action), it is unlikely that Rizin will gain a foothold in the United States.
Eric Moore: FACT I don’t really think they will, honestly. Fedor is the only thing they have and that fight wasn’t exactly earth-shattering. Add in the other organizations (Bellator, WSOF, to name a couple) who are also fighting for space in MMA, I just don’t think it will do that well here. Overseas, sure, it will have its place and I think it could potentially prosper. Maybe they get a notable fight for Fedor (like his original opponent Kohsaka, who got a W over Fedor like 15 years ago), but outside of that, there’s not much else that will interest the casual fans in the US. I just don’t see it in the current landscape.
Scott Kuczkowski: FICTION This is hard to say just yet because we’ve only seen one show from Rizin, so we don’t know what changes they might make (if any) to attract more viewers. The problem with Rizin’s New Year’s Eve show is that there weren’t many notable current fighters and it was on at an odd hour. Plus, Fedor had been gone for 3 years, and while some fans were excited to see him return. I think just as many wanted to see him stay retired. And while Spike’s “Breakfast with Fedor” advertisement was unique, I think it missed the mark when trying to get people to tune in. A better timeslot and adding current, notable fighters to the mix should boost ratings, but if Rizin is going to continue booking freakshow fights, then they probably won’t do well.
6.) Eddie Alvarez makes a valid point that more fighters should consider when negotiating contracts – rather than focusing on the perceived prestige of the organization offering the contract, they should focus on maximizing their earning potential.
Eric Moore: FACT I mean, sure, it’s in their best interest financially to do so, and they certainly should not allow themselves to get low-balled just to get a roster spot, but at the same time, those roster spots are not exactly easy to come by, so you don’t want to play hardball too, well, hard. For younger fighters, they really have no choice but to take what’s offered to them. I think the real message, though, is about those fighters building themselves first and not just demanding money or begging for a spot. Make themselves a commodity that the UFC (or any other organization for that matter) would want and would be willing to invest in. Build your name, your record, your skill set, build yourself as a brand so that when you finally reach that point, it is them knocking on your door with a number, then go from there.
That, I can agree with, and I feel is what he was hitting on and is good advice from a guy who’s been there for those who have yet to.
Scott Kuczkowski: FACT…but that’s a double-edged sword. Fighters should absolutely be looking to maximize their own earning potential, but that’s often tied to many, many things. Eddie Alvarez came over from Bellator where he was the champ and the big fish in the little pond for a long time. And during his UFC debut, he was dismantled by Cerrone. Sure, he came back to defeat Melendez, but if he loses to Pettis, then he’s 1-2 in the UFC and probably not going to headline a fight card (or get a title shot) anytime soon. That hurts his earning potential within the UFC. Now, the UFC is arguably the most prestigious promotion that offers him the opportunity to have the most people watch him fight (and therefore make money), but if he loses, then his stock ultimately falls. But if he wins and becomes champion, then he’s in line to make a lot of money. If he’d gone to WSOF, he might be making more money from sponsors, but he might not be fighting as much and not in front of as many viewers. Lots of fighters chased the big bucks when they left the UFC to sign with Affliction, but when that folded, those guys were left without a promotion. Smart fighters like Rousey, Liddell, Couture, and Faber used their UFC stardom to maximize their earnings outside of fighting by getting involved in movies and television. Other fighters became coaches and opened their own gyms. So, while I agree with Eddie that fighters should be looking out for themselves and not just jumping to sign with the best promotion, there’s a lot more that goes into a fighter’s earning potential than just the amount a promotion pays them to fight.
So who won? Did Kuch start the new year off with his first win, or was Eric able to even up his record? You’ve got until midnight eastern on Saturday to vote, so make sure you make your voice heard!
And that’s it for today, but we’ll be back next week with another contest! As always, if there’s anything you’d like to see featured in a future edition, leave your statement in the comments and I’ll add it in. Let me know what you thought in the comments or on Twitter. And please, be sure to vote!
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