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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – Bellator 170: Ortiz vs. Sonnen
WELCOME:
Bellator MMA kicks off the year with one of its biggest-ever shows! In the main event, Tito Ortiz takes on Chael Sonnen. Ortiz has stated the bout will be the last of his storied career. In the co-main event, strikers Paul Daley and Brennan Ward clash. At middleweight, Hisaki Kato welcomes Ralek Gracie back to MMA. In featherweight action, Georgi Karakhanyan fights Emmanuel Sanchez. Plus, Derek Campos vs. Derek Anderson, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
Spike.com
Flyweight Bout: Rebecca Ruth vs. Collen Schneider
Bantamweight Bout: Rob Gooch vs. James Barnes
Lightweight Bout: Mike Segura vs. Tommy Aaron
Welterweight Bout: Johnny Cisneros vs. Curtis Millender
Lightweight Bout: Jacob Rosales vs. Ian Butler
Catch-weight Bout: Christian Gonzalez vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Welterweight Bout: Gabriel Green vs. Jalin Turner
Welterweight Bout: Guilherme Vasconcelos vs. John Mercurio
Middleweight Bout: Kevin Casey vs. Keith Berry
Featherweight Bout: Henry Corrales vs. Cody Bollinger
Heavyweight Bout: Jack May vs. Dave Cryer
Featherweight Bout: Chinzo Machida vs. Jamar Ocampo
THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Derek Campos vs. Derek Anderson
Robert Winfree: I’m not familiar with either fighter, but Derek Anderson seems to have beaten a slightly better level of competition so that’s the direction I’m leaning.
Winner: Derek Anderson, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: I don’t know much about Derek Campos but I’ve followed his opponent, Derek Anderson, somewhat. Anderson has a decent grappling game, he can strike but he isn’t high level and I’m not sure you can say he’s a capable mid-level striker. Nonetheless, he is gritty when the fight is drawn out and he can be a finisher with strikes or submissions. Campos is likely more known for his finish of Melvin Guillard. He has knockout power and knows his submissions. Both fighters are young and have plenty of room for development. I’m going with Anderson who has better wins on his record.
Winner: Derek Anderson, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Both guys come in on two-fight win streaks. Anderson scored a notable victory over Patricky Pitbull about a year ago in a very close fight (a rematch of their 2013 bout, which Anderson also won), while Campos memorably knocked out Melvin Guillard last year. Anderson was slated to move up to welterweight and fight Paul Daley in November, but the fight was scrapped as Daley battled a tough weight cut. Both are solid all around and aggressive, but Anderson is the larger fighter and the more consistent one too.
Winner: Anderson, Decision
The staff picks Derek Anderson, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Georgi Karakhanyan vs. Emmanuel Sanchez
Robert Winfree: Based on merit this is the best fight on the card. Georgi Karakhanyan is a former WSOF featherweight champion and his only recent losses in Bellator are to Pat Curran and Daniel Weichel. Emmanuel Sanchez is that same boat, this fight likely crowns the next title challenger really. I could see this one going either way and my apathy for Bellator in general means I’m picking a little blind with respect to recent performances but I’ll go with Karakhanyan.
Winner: Georgi Karakhanyan, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Two Bellator tough competitors we have here. Karakhanyan is a finisher. He’ll submit you or hit you hard until the ref stops the action. Sanchez is a gritty fighter and likes to stick around until the last bell rings. I’m giving the edge to Karakhanyan as he seems to have a little more potential than Sanchez. But don’t leave Sanchez behind. At this level, he’s game.
Winner: Georgi Karakhanyan, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Karakhanyan has a lot of experience and very strong submissions. Sanchez is tough – the kind of tough that leads you to four consecutive split decisions – and has never been finished. A RoufusSport product, Sanchez is good on the feet, and really liked his kicks last summer against Daniel Weichel, but I see Karakhanyan taking this.
Winner: Karakhanyan, Submission, Round 3
The staff picks Georgi Karakhanyan, 3-0.
Middleweight Bout: Ralek Gracie vs. Hisaki Kato
Robert Winfree: Oh look, a Gracie for one half of Bellator’s commentary team to verbally fellate. Ralek hasn’t fought in seven years, Kato had a really nice finish of Joe Schilling not too long ago and most Gracie’s have suspect chins. If this hits the mat Gracie shouldn’t have too much trouble but I’m not sold on his ability to do so.
Winner: Hisaki Kato, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Gracie has been gone from MMA competition for seven years and only has three fights to his record. Kato doesn’t have too many either but he is more experienced and he has some power. I don’t see how Gracie wins this. Look for Kato to embarrass Gracie and leave him wishing he hadn’t returned.
Winner: Hisaki Kato, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Obviously, I can’t pick the guy who hasn’t fought in 7 years and two of his three wins came against Katsuyori Shibata and the 2010 version of Sakuraba. Ralek will of course do well if he can take it to the ground, but the more likely result is Kato, a karate stylist that has finished all of his wins by strikes, adds another stoppage to his record.
Winner: Kato, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Hisaki Kato, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Paul Daley vs. Brennan Ward
Robert Winfree: Ah, violence. That’s really all I expect out of these two. Paul Daley has violent finishing power but he can be out grappled, and out struck as well if you’re a good enough striker. Brennan Ward is a bit of a brawler, and I don’t think those are the best terms to engage Daley on. Bellator wants Daley to get a highlight reel finish on a big stage and move him towards a rematch with Douglas Lima with the belt on the line.
Winner: Paul Daley, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: This should be action packed, but then again, you know how that goes. Nonetheless, Daley is a striker, and that’s about it. Ward is a brawler, but with a grappling background (not a fancy one and not that he uses it often but it’s there). Daley is more refined (striking) and experienced and should be able to counter/out strike Ward. However, as I mentioned, Ward is a wrestler and he can submit too. This happens to be Daley’s short coming and if Ward plays it smart look for him to try for takedowns and to weasel in a submission. But I have a feeling it won’t play out like that. Ward will fight fire with fire and I think Daley will get the TKO.
Winner: Paul Daley, TKO
Dan Plunkett: This will be fun. Ward loves to slug it out, and although that’s probably not his best path to victory here, it’s probably what will happen. Daley has vicious counters and a killer left hand, and if Ward leaves himself open it won’t be good for him. If Ward can stretch the fight out and make Daley, who has had a history of really tough weight cuts, work, the better for him. However, I see Daley’s power being the difference.
Winner: Daley, KO, Round 2
The staff picks Paul Daley, 3-0.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Chael Sonnen
Robert Winfree: Oh God, who cares. I’m flipping a coin, this farce doesn’t deserve anything else.
Winner: Chael Sonnen, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: For both fighters it’s about the clinch, takedown, and ground and pound. Both fighters have been out of competition for sometime—Ortiz for over a year and Sonnen much longer. Look for Sonnen to be a little rusty, more so than Ortiz. This will boil down to who can control the clinch and get the takedowns. I’m expecting a decision victory for whoever can take the lead and out wrestle the other. Both are hard nose wrestlers but I think Sonnen is the cleaner wrestler with better technique. So I would give the edge to Sonnen but his time away concerns me. Still, I think this is a toss up. I see Ortiz edging a decision with his size and grit but I could be totally wrong and I’m actually rooting for Sonnen to get the win.
Winner: Tito Ortiz, Decision
Dan Plunkett: There’s not a ton of room for confidence in this pick purely on the fact that we’ve seen so little of either fighter of late. Sonnen has been absent from competition since November 2013, when he was beaten down by Rashad Evans in one round. The following summer, he failed two drug tests for a pharmacy of performance-enhancing drugs and announced his retirement before receiving a two-year suspension. Ortiz, whose body was worn down when he first retired in 2012, hasn’t been seen since Liam McGeary submitted him in the fall of 2015. It comes down to a battle for top position. Sonnen is a significantly more accomplished wrestler than Ortiz, although Ortiz should be the larger fighter. But, once again, it comes down to where these two are today. If we go only by past performances, Sonnen should win handily, but perhaps he’s totally fallen off physically since that point. It’s little more than a shot in the dark, but I’ll say Sonnen takes out Ortiz based on the very limited information we have.
Winner: Sonnen, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Chael Sonnen, 2-1.
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