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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale
WELCOME:
A strawweight title bout headlines night two of UFC 200 weekend! In the main event, Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her belt against Claudia Gadelha to settle a heated rivalry! At lightweight, former Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks makes his UFC debut against Ross Pearson. Additionally, two new Ultimate Fighters will be decided as Andrew Sanchez fights Khalil Rountree at light heavyweight and Amanda Cooper faces Tatiana Suarez at strawweight. Plus, Doo Ho Choi takes on Thiago Tavarez, Joaquim Silva vs. Andrew Holbrook, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Welterweight Bout: Li Jinliang vs. Anton Zafir
Lightweight Bout: Jake Matthews vs. Kevin Lee
Fox Sports 1
Middleweight Bout: Cezar Ferreira vs. Anthony Smith
Light Heavyweight Bout: Josh Stansbury vs. Cory Hendricks
Flyweight Bout: John Moraga vs. Matheus Nicolau
Featherweight bout: Gray Maynard vs. Fernando Bruno
THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Joaquim Silva vs. Andrew Holbrook
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Andrew Holbrook, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Joaquim Silva, Decision
The staff calls it down the middle, 1-1.
Featherweight Bout: Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares
Jeffrey Harris: Thiago Tavares, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Doo Ho Choi, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Doo Ho Choi, KO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield:Doo Ho Choi, TKO, Round One
The staff picks Doo Ho Choi, 3-1.
Lightweight Bout: Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks
Jeffrey Harris: The former Bellator MMA lightweight champion moves into the UFC, facing longtime lightweight veteran Ross Pearson. Pearson is a tough and talented opponent, but he’s also very inconsistent with his performances. Brooks is very talented and ended his run on Bellator on top, beating top contender Michael Chandler on two separate occasions. Pearson’s not always able to rise to the occasion in his fights. He has good striking and fairly decent takedown defense, but I think Brooks is more well-rounded then him. I think this is a good test for Brooks in his UFC debut, to see how he will perform under the pressure and bright lights of such a big stage.
Winner: Will Brooks, Decision
Robert Winfree: The linear Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks has made his way to the UFC finally. Brooks is a very good fighter, while he specializes in wrestling his striking game has shown improvement and he’s displayed a degree of intelligence in his fights when it comes to executing game plans. His back taking abilities in particular are solid and he’s a great addition to the already stacked division. He’s not getting a layup for his first fight though as Ross Pearson is a tough and proven veteran. Pearson has good boxing skills, particularly his left hook and has good counter wrestling. Pearson has been trading wins and losses lately and I think it’s relatively safe to say he’s gone as far upwards as he’s going to while Brooks has yet to reach his ceiling. This will be a tough fight, and Pearson has ways to win but given Brooks’ skill set I think he’ll be able to corral and grind out a win.
Winner: Will Brooks, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Will Brooks makes his UFC debut against veteran, Ross Pearson. Pearson has alternated wins and losses in his last eight fights, but that is really the story of his UFC career as a whole. He is a solid fighter but not elite and a good test for up and coming prospects. In other words, he is a gatekeeper. Now, either the UFC is using him to gauge Brooks or they think this is a good fight to get Brooks over and get him ready for the climb. Pearson likes to put on a show but he is guilty of lulling the action instead of working for openings. He is a striker with a good jab but works primarily as a counter striker, hence, his instances of stalling the action and waiting for openings. He isn’t a world class grappler but he does have an okay defensive wrestling game. Brooks appears to be well-rounded. He is athletic, strong, fast, and gritty. While, he has 18 career fights under his belt, he lacks high level experience beyond Michael Chandler. He seems to be an intelligent fighter and has some good offensive striking output, throwing jabs or kicks while pushing forward and he is good at landing punishing counters. His movement seems good as he is able to pressure forward and step, circle out of the way to avoid his opponent’s offense and hit counters. Brooks is also a good clinch fighter landing nice combinations of punches, elbows, and knees. He also works takedowns from tie-ups and appears to have a solid top game. On paper, Brooks is the all-around better fighter, athlete, and has more tools at his disposal. Pearson can be tough but Brooks, as the more diverse fighter, should be able to pick up, at the least, a close decision.
Winner: Will Brooks, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Former Bellator Lightweight Champion Will Brooks follows in the footsteps of Eddie Alvarez as he makes his UFC debut against tough veteran Ross Pearson. While the rugged Pearson is a tough out for pretty much anyone, it’s no surprise that Brooks walks in a moderate favourite in betting terms. While Pearson has some creditable wins to his name, he also possesses disappointing defeats to the likes of Trinaldo and Iaquinta, and his lack of an absolutely superior element of his game probably explains his ability to trade wins and losses against fighters or similar ability levels. While Pearson’s style lends itself to technical brawls which has been problematic for some, Brooks has been there and done that against opponents with superior wrestling bases – Michael Chandler is the obvious example. Having said that, Brooks has faced a string of phenomenal grapplers under the Bellator banner, and Pearson is a world away from the likes of Held, Jansen and Sarnavskiy in terms of style if not ability, but I’m not sure he has a strong enough up-side to really disrupt Brooks too much.
Winner: Will Brooks, Decision
The staff picks Will Brooks, 4-0.
Strawweight Bout: Amanda Cooper vs. Tatiana Suarez
Jeffrey Harris: Amanda Cooper, Decision
Robert Winfree: Amanda Cooper, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Amanda Cooper, TKO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield: Tatiana Suarez, Decision
The staff picks Amanda Cooper, 3-1.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Andrew Sanchez vs. Khalil Rountree
Jeffrey Harris: Andrew Sanchez, Decision
Robert Winfree: Andrew Sanchez, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Andrew Sanchez, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Khalil Rountree, TKO, Round One
The staff picks Andrew Sanchez, 3-1.
UFC Strawweight Championship Bout: Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs. Cláudia Gadelha
Jeffrey Harris: I love this match-up, and I’m glad the rematch between these two is finally happening. Their first fight was a very close split decision that Jędrzejczyk won. Some argued that it should’ve gone to Gadelha. Now they will have five rounds to play with. Jędrzejczyk has such a fantastic striking game that’s simply amazing to watch. I see few fighters slip strikes and throw combinations like she does inside the cage. In fact, I rarely do. Gadelha is another tough striker. I could see her possibly winning the fight. Right now, I am very high on Jędrzejczyk, and her evolution as a champion is what’s making me lean toward picking her. I do expect five tough and hard rounds of fighting. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gadelha takes one or two rounds either.
Winner: Joanna Jędrzejczyk, Decision
Robert Winfree: This was a very close fight the first time around and very likely will be again. Claudia Gadelha has only ever lost to Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Gadelha has a top notch grappling game, mostly from top position, and is a very aggressive fighter who’s striking showed improvement over her last couple of fights. For Gadelha to win she must control the pace of this fight, there’s a question mark around her ability to fight over a full five rounds and she’ll likely perform better if fighting at her pace rather than her opponents, and secure takedowns because she’s highly unlikely to win a prolonged kickboxing bout against Jedrzejczyk. Joanna Jedrzejczyk has been unstoppable as an MMA fighter, and her last three outings have been brutal and generally one sided in her favor. She has world class Thai boxing skills, great takedown defense, and a penchant for violence like few other fighters. She’s great at stopping takedowns either against the cage or in open space, has some of the best hand speed in the entire sport, and a rock solid mental game. Gadelha has fought just once since losing to Jedrzejczyk while Jedrzejczyk has fought three times. I’ve seen more improvement from Jedrzejczyk over that time period and while this will be another tough fight I have very little reason to pick against her.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Round 4
Lorenzo Vasquez III: This is a rematch, but only this time, the strawweight title is up for grabs. The last time these two locked horns Joanna won a razor thin split decision, one in which many felt Claudia should have been given the nod. It was a competitive fight last time around and you shouldn’t expect anything less this Friday. Joanna is a strong Muay Thai and kickboxing fighter and has developed excellent takedown defense which has lead her to a successful run as the champ. Overall, she is technically sound. She keeps a strong pace, measures and judges her timing and distance with a solid jab, and she keeps the pressure turned up. She’ll also time counters nicely and strike and disappear from her opponent’s offense. Once again, that takedown defense has really come around since the first fight with Claudia; and, she’ll make you pay for trying by sneaking in punches, elbows, and knees after defending. Claudia has only fought once since losing to Joanna. She essentially dominated Jessica Aguilar in route to a unanimous decision.
The Brazilian is athletic. She is strong, fast, explosive, and dynamic. She is good all-around. Her game revolves around pressuring her opponent with jabs, low kicks, and combinations. And her combinations come hard. She is strong in the clinch and from there transitions nicely to takedowns. Her top game is heavy and she is submission savvy. To win, Joanna has to be ready to fight those takedowns and get back up if she is taken down. The champion will have to stick and move and time her entry into pocket to land combinations occasionally and get out quick. If she can do this and land in volume from a distance, she’ll secure the win. She won last time by landing in bunches from a distance using her reach, but if she can get in close and land more from the inside and get out quick, she makes a better case than last time. Not to mention, her counter striking will have to be on par. Claudia needs to get takedowns like last time, but this time, she needs too work her top game while keeping Joanna pined for much longer periods of time. In the last fight, the champion was able to stop the Brazilian from employing her top game which in turn, cost Claudia the fight. Claudia’s striking looked improved against Aguilar, but Joanna is just more refined with more tools in the stand up. Claudia must get the fight to ground and must be active from the top with ground strikes and submission attempts. So, who wins? Both women have looked improved, though Joanna has fought more often since, and has gone through adversity in her last fight. Claudia has only been in there one time, since. The key for Claudia is getting takedowns and Joanna has greatly improved her takedown defense. This leads me to believe Joanna will do better this time around and pick up a hard fought unanimous decision.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Speed, movement, cardio. These are the three demons Gadelha must slay before the full effect of a five round title fight really begin to kick in. In some ways, this match clearly favours Jedrzejczyk, not least the fact she is clearly the superior athlete in terms of all those factors (speed, movement, cardio) – from the opposite stance, however, Gadelha is being massively overlooked by certain sections of the UFC audience based on the fact she lost a close first fight and isn’t likely to have come up with a solution to the conundrum facing her. But Gadelha is a very sound fighter, technically good in the stand up, strong on the ground, and powerful enough to either hurt Jedrzejczyk or blanket her against the fence or on the mat. Despite Joanna’s upsides (which are great), I don’t see her really hurting Gadelha in the non-championship rounds, so those are all there for the theoretical taking from Claudinha’s stand point. The latter two, unless Gadelha has severely damaged Joanna by that point, are likely to favour the Polish fighter – so you can argue the pressure is definitely on the challenger, and she’ll have to be far more effective far more consistently than she was in the first fight. Can she do that?
That all depends. We’ve seen less of Claudia since these two first met in 2014 to the tune of 3 fights to 1 in Joanna’s favour. That’s allowed Joanna to showcase a superior and more well-rounded skillset, but that doesn’t mean we haven’t missed radical improvements on Claudia’s side – after all, her only fight since then was a victory over the highly talented Jessica Aguilar which effectively made her the undisputed number two in the division. Had she fought someone like Letourneau, I’m sure people would be raving more about Claudia because Claudia clearly wins that fight handily. That said, even with all the guesswork involved, Claudia’s ability to hang for five rounds (which is the likely outcome) is just too big a concern for me. This is closer than some think, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we crowned a new champion, but I’m sticking with the safer bet.
Winner: Joanna, Decision
The staff picks Joanna Jędrzejczyk, 4-0.
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