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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale

December 3, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

WELCOME:
The Ultimate Fighter season 24 winner Tim Elliot claims his prize as he challenges flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson Saturday night! In the co-main event, TUF 24 coaches collide as Joseph Benavidez fights Henry Cejudo. At welterweight, Jake Ellenberger takes on Jorge Masvidal. In light heavyweight action, Ion Cutelaba fights Jared Cannonier. Plus, Sara McMann takes on Alexis Davis, Brandon Moreno vs. Ryan Benoit, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • And your host, Dan Plunkett!

    Preliminary Card
    UFC Fight Pass
    Middleweight Bout: Josh Stansbury vs. Devin Clark
    Middleweight Bout: Elvis Mutapcic vs. Anthony Smith

    Fox Sports 1
    Strawweight Bout: Kailin Curran vs. Jamie Moyle
    Lightweight Bout: Dong Hyun Kim vs. Brendan O’Reilly
    Bantamweight Bout: Rob Font vs. Matt Shnell
    Featherweight Bout: Gray Maynard vs. Ryan Hall


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Flyweight Bout: Brandon Moreno vs. Ryan Benoit

    Note: Due to the late finalization of the bout order, the staff was not asked to pick this fight.

    Dan Plunkett: Moreno, Submission, Round 2


    Bantamweight Bout: Sara McMann vs. Alexis Davis

    Robert Winfree: Sara McMann, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: McMann, Decision
    The staff picks Sara McMann, 2-0.


    Light Heavyweight Bout: Ion Cutelaba vs. Jared Cannonier

    Robert Winfree: If nothing else this one will feature some fireworks. Both these gentlemen are offensive fighters, both prefer striking, and both have a penchant for finishes. In fact Cutelaba just went the distance for the first time in his career in his last fight. I tend to feel that whoever’s moving forward in this fight will win, though that has the caveat of them not being stupid and reckless about it because if one of them pulls a Derek Brunson leaving their chin out they’ll get countered and likely finished. With the style and power being thrown around here either man has a chance at winning, but I’m leaning towards Cutelaba. Cutelaba’s demonstrated a slightly better chin and is a bit more seasoned, especially if he can induce a brawl.

    Winner: Ion Cutelaba, TKO, Round 1

    Dan Plunkett: Jared Cannonier was a good sized heavyweight and is now cutting down to light heavyweight. Whether that was a good decision remains to be seen, but, Daniel Cormier notwithstanding, I’m skeptical about how a 240+ pound heavyweight will handle a cut to 205. Cutelaba has a wrestling background, but he’s shown to be an aggressive striker. I think Cutelaba will outlast Cannonier.

    Winner: Cutelaba, Decision

    The staff picks Ion Cutelaba, 2-0.


    Welterweight Bout: Jake Ellenberger vs. Jorge Masvidal

    Robert Winfree: Man, getting a handle on Jake Ellenberger has been hard recently. He just snapped a four fight losing streak by beating Matt Brown, but even in that victory we saw a few of the same old issues with his game pop up. Ellenberger hits really hard and has a solid wrestling base but tends to fight only in flurries and struggles to recover mentally if someone survives. That being said the move to Kings MMA was clearly a good one as he remembered he could kick in that win over Brown and was able to recover after Brown survived the initial onslaught. I’m not sure just how much that camp will have helped him coming into this fight, which is causing some of my issues picking a winner. Jorge Masvidal is a very solid fighter, he’s good everywhere and tends to get a bit over looked because he’s more of a veteran than surging contender and hasn’t yet had the big signature win at welterweight. Masvidal’s recent record really should be 4-1 rather than 2-3 as his split decision losses to Al Iaquinta and Lorenz Larkin really should have gone the other way IMO. I’m leaning towards Masvidal here, the man is solid as a rock and the only real issue he’s had lately has been volume related and knowing when to turn up the aggression. That being said Ellenberger winning wouldn’t shock me as Kings MMA has proven invaluable to several fighters and might be the move he’s needed for a while now.

    Winner: Jorge Masvidal, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: I figured Jake Ellenberger was done fighting anywhere near the top level when he stepped up against Matt Brown in July. He’d been on a steady decline since a disappointing performance against Rory MacDonald in 2013, but turned it around at least for one night against Brown with a first round TKO. Masvidal is a tough, durable welterweight that doesn’t have many overt weaknesses. However, Matt Brown was also noted for his toughness and Ellenberger put him down. In a sport where most anybody can knock out anybody in their weight class, Ellenberger should be noted for his power. In addition to Brown, his strikes have put down Jake Shields, Nate Marquardt, and Carlos Condit (although he narrowly lost the latter fight). Like Robert, I like Masvidal here for his consistency and stronger cardio, but Ellenberger has tools that he can pull out of his back pocket to make Saturday a bad night for his opponent.

    Winner: Masvidal, Decision

    The staff picks Jorge Masvidal, 2-0.


    Flyweight Bout: Joseph Benavidez vs. Henry Cejudo

    Robert Winfree: If this were a five round fight I’d pick Benavidez without too much hesitation, but it’s just three rounds so that muddies the waters a bit. Henry Cejudo is coming off of his first loss when he was humbled by Demetrious Johnson but he’s got an overall impressive skillset between his wrestling skills and boxing. Joseph Benavidez is a much more experienced fighter and throughout his entire career he’s only ever lost to Dominick Cruz and Demetrious Johnson. That being said Benavidez might be slowing down a bit, his last two wins haven’t been terribly impressive and he’s been fighting for over a decade so the wear and tear finally catching up with him is possible. Benavidez is the better striker of the two, he’s shown greater proficiency with all of his limbs rather than Cejudo’s punching oriented attack. While Cejudo holds the strict wrestling edge the overall grappling might lean towards Benavidez, especially in prolonged scrambles. I can see Cejudo winning two of the three rounds here, his wrestling is that good and he’s quite competent in the striking department, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick against Benavidez if he’s not fighting Demetrious Johnson.

    Winner: Joseph Benavidez, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: It’s not fair that Henry Cejudo has to fight the scale before advancing to a fight with Benavidez, but that’s the way it works I suppose. Cejudo is still developing – he debuted less than three years ago and although he’s progressed considerably with his boxing, the Olympic gold medalist still has a lot of road left uncovered in his journey. Conversely, Benavidez, 32, is likely at his peak. He’s been the unquestioned #2 fighter in the flyweight division since losing to Demetrious Johnson in the inaugural title fight, but of all the opponents he’s faced, Cejudo has the best shot at taking that distinction from him. I still like Benavidez in the fight, he’s simply more complete.

    Winner: Benavidez, Decision

    The staff picks Joseph Benavidez, 2-0.


    UFC Flyweight Championship Bout: Demetrious Johnson vs. Tim Elliott

    Robert Winfree: I thought Tim Elliott got a raw deal the first time the UFC cut him, yeah he lost three in a row but those were to Ali Bagautinov, Joseph Benavidez, and Zach Makovsky. Two of those are studs and former title challengers and Makovsky is a really solid fighter, I never saw Elliot as dropping off of the UFC level even with that rough patch. Elliott has a really awkward style, he moves a lot and engages in some wild scrambles on the mat if the fight goes there. Despite his general skill level still being commensurate with the UFC, that tends to put him a step or two behind Demetrious Johnson. Johnson is very nearly the perfect fighter, he can do everything with near flawless execution. He can fight everywhere, which gives him the supreme advantage of always fighting where he has the edge be that striking or grappling, on the mat or in the clinch, quickly or over time. Elliott will have some height and reach to play with and MMA is a fundamentally insane sport, so completely discounting his chances would be foolish but picking against Johnson seems ill advised.

    Winner: Demetrious Johnson, Submission, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: Tim Elliott is a good fighter that may have eventually found himself in this position even without the reality show. He’s an awkward fighter and has the size edge, but Demetrious Johnson is simply a master. I can see Elliott’s style making it look like something less than Johnson’s best performance, but I see him cruising here.

    Winner: Johnson, Submission, Round 3

    The staff picks Demetrious Johnson, 2-0.


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