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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 191: Johnson vs. Dodson 2
WELCOME:
Quietly, Demetrious Johnson has put together one of the most dominant title reigns in MMA history. Overlooked due to the lack of over-the-top charisma and competing in a newer weight class, Johnson has walked through everybody in his path at flyweight. Only three opponents have provided Johnson with some trouble. First, there was Ian McCall, who beat on a faded Johnson to close out their March 2012 match, which ended in a draw. Three months later, Johnson got his revenge with a clear-cut decision victory. Then, Joseph Benavidez fought him closely in the first flyweight championship bout, even earning one judge’s scorecard. Johnson didn’t let him out of the first round a rematch one year later.
And then there was John Dodson.
Dodson’s speedy punches dropped Johnson to the mat twice in their January 2013 match on Fox, but he didn’t capitalize on the opportunities. Johnson roared back, handily winning the final three frames against a tired Dodson. Nearly three years later, Dodson has his shot at redemption, while Johnson looks to impress yet again in a rematch. If Johnson wins, his seven consecutive title defenses will tie Jose Aldo fourth-most in major MMA history.
Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson headlines UFC 191 from Las Vegas, Nevada.
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First two prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Lightweight Bout: Joaquim Silva vs. Nazareno Malegarie
Jeffrey Harris: Joaquim Silva, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Nazareno Malegarie, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Malegarie, Decision
The staff picks Nazareno Malegarie, 2-1.
Middleweight Bout: Joe Riggs vs. Ron Stallings
Jeffrey Harris: Ron Stallings, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Ron Stallings, TKO, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Riggs, Decision
The staff picks Ron Stallings, 2-1.
Featherweight Bout: Clay Collard vs. Tiago Trator
Jeffrey Harris: Clay Collard, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Clay Collard, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Collard, Decision
The staff picks Clay Collard, 3-0.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Jessica Andrade vs. Raquel Pennington
Jeffrey Harris: Jessica Andrade, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Jessica Andrade, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Andrade, Decision
The staff picks Jessica Andrade, 3-0.
Bantamweight Bout: Francisco Rivera vs. John Lineker
Jeffrey Harris: Francisco Rivera, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Francisco Rivera, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Lineker, Decision
The staff picks Francisco Rivera, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Ross Pearson vs. Paul Felder
Jeffrey Harris: Ross Pearson, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Paul Felder, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Felder, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Paul Felder, 2-1.
THE MAIN CARD:
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Paige VanZant vs. Alex Chambers
Jeffrey Harris: It’s really great to see a women’s strawweight fight as the opener, not only that, but Paige VanZant on a main PPV card. This is clearly meant to be a showcase fight to build up Paige VanZant, but this will be her UFC PPV debut. So far, Paige VanZant has done very well for herself. Her opponent, Alex Chambers, is coming off a strong submission win over Kailin Curran, who VanZant has also defeated. I like this fight a lot. This is a fight where we will either see VanZant shine and continue her rise up the ranks as a potential major star for the budding strawweight division. Or Alex Chambers will get the upset over a big name opponent and move up in the rankings. Obviously, VanZant will need more fights before being put in a title situation, so that’s why I like this fight for her. She definitely seems to be an animal in the cage, so I think she will dominate this one.
Winner: Paige VanZant, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: VanZant is very raw but she is durable, athletic, explosive, aggressive, and powerful. Altogether, it compensates for her lack of technical skill. VanZant proved she is tough enough to hang with those at the top by shutting out Felice Herrig and she’ll likely pick up her third UFC win Saturday night. Chambers is older but doesn’t have much more experience than VanZant. Plus she doesn’t do well under pressure which is what VanZant does best. It should be a somewhat easy night for VanZant.
Winner: Paige VanZant, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: VanZant is being booked really well here, which is to say this is a favorable matchup for the 21-year-old potential star. I was impressed with her last performance, as I figured Felice Herrig would prove to be a tougher match. Chambers can pull of the upset – she’s good on the ground and VanZant is inexperienced, but VanZant will bring the heat.
Winner: VanZant, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Paige VanZant, 3-0.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Jan Blachowicz vs. Corey Anderson
Jeffrey Harris: Jan Blachowicz had a strong UFC debut, knockout Ilir Latifi. After that, he lost a dull decision to Jimi Manuwa, so he will be looking to come back with a strong win here. Corey Anderson is also 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a knockout loss to Gian Villante. I believe Blachowicz striking ability and background will be more than enough to dominate and stop the less experienced Anderson. Blachowicz wins here.
Winner: Jan Blachowicz, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Blachowicz is a great striker who works behind a jab and leg and body kicks. He relies on putting forth high-output but struggles when pressured. His offensive and defensive wrestling is decent. Overall, he’s a well-rounded fighter. Anderson is a wrestler who has the potential to be a sound striker. He pushes a good pace and has good foot and head movement. His clinch and his transitions are solid and he has a strong control game. Anderson needs to push the pace clinch up and incorporate his wrestling with his striking. Blachowicz has to hit first and often to establish his pace. Blachowicz is seasoned and should be able to out work Anderson.
Winner: Jan Blachowicz, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Blachowicz is a very solid veteran fighter notable for his striking, but he isn’t bad on the ground either. Anderson, 25, is a good wrestler that has only been doing this for a few years, so there’s still time to change his nickname. It’s going to be difficult for him to win this fight without heavy reliance on his wrestling; Blachowicz is the more sound striker. I see Blachowicz getting the edge here.
Winner: Blachowicz, Decision.
The staff picks Jan Blachowicz, 3-0.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Johnson vs. Jimi Manuwa
Jeffrey Harris: From a promotional standpoint, you can look at this as a fight for Anthony “Rumble” Johnson to win, look strong again, and maybe getting put back in the title mix soon. With Alexander Gustafsson about to compete for the light heavyweight title, there is always the potential of Gustafsson winning the belt. If that’s the case, Johnson would be in the best position to fight him next, considering that Johnson already defeated Gustafsson by knockout. Jon Jones status is still a question mark, and we have no idea when he’s coming back. The way these two match up, I would say Johnson is the more well-rounded of the two. Manuwa is a decent fighter, but I do not think he has the grappling or submission skills that will give Johnson a lot of trouble. In addition, Johnson is a much more dangerous and powerful striker. Then again, Johnson is coming off a crushing defeat. However, I see Johnson looking back to form and destroying Manuwa.
Winner: Anthony Johnson, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: I’ve been looking over Jimi Manuwa fights and the more I watch them the more I think this is a bad matchup for the Brit. Jimi has some nice power and if he can clinch Johnson up against the cage and trade from there he can wear down the behemoth. But the Brit won’t do that. He likes to get in the pocket and trade and his striking defense isn’t anywhere close to sound. Johnson has power and he has excellent counters. Combine that with his square stance and when Manuwa steps into the pocket and lets something fly, the end for the Brit will be close. As Manuwa trades Johnson will counter and level out the Brit with devastating power.
Winner: Anthony Johnson, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Johnson, with his immense power, is the scariest striker in the division. Manuwa is a very good striker, but he hasn’t quite shown to be on Johnson’s level. It should be noted that Johnson has the wrestling to take Manuwa down and keep him there, but I’d be surprised if this was anything but a striking battle. In that game, Johnson should be able to land some big ones.
Winner: Johnson, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Anthony Johnson, 3-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Andrei Arlovski vs. Frank Mir
Jeffrey Harris: This is a fight 10 years in the making between two former UFC heavyweight champions. Oddly enough, these two men are not fighting in a decline but at a time where they are actually looking very good right now. Arlovski is on one of the best career runs in years and is coming off an amazing knockout win over Travis Browne. Mir knocked out his last two opponents in Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee. I could see this fight going any number of ways. I can see there being hesitancy between both men, not to mention a lot of stalling and clinching against the fence. I can also see Arlovski nailing Mir with a punch that puts him on the ground. Mir’s ability to box has gotten a little better as of late, but his bread and butter has always been his very dangerous submission game. This is a fight that I have been feeling 50/50 on, but I’m leaning toward Arlovski since he hasn’t been stopped in quite some time. Not only that, Mir doesn’t always react very well to getting hit, and I think that works more in Arlovski’s favor. Hopefully it will be an exciting heavyweight fight and not a 15 minute bore as both men have been in those as well.
Winner: Andrei Arlovski, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: While, this is a fun matchup, it would have been better had it taken place a decade ago. Arlovski has been on a surprising rise as has Frank Mir. This fight stays on the feet for its entire duration. Both guys have solid offensive and defensive striking. However, Arlovski has had it much longer than Mir. He also has a better foundation and movement than Mir’s past few opponents he found success with. Mir also tends to allow his opponents to dictate where the fight take place and he’ll likely do it here. Hence, Arlovski racks up another win and inches closer to heavyweight gold.
Winner: Andrei Arlovski, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: I can’t make a confident pick in this matchup. I’d favor Arlovski on the feet, although Mir can certainly connect and do damage. On the ground, it’s Mir’s world, although I’m not certain of his ability to consistently close the distance on Arlovski to get it down there. I can see this fight going many different ways, from a quick finish to a short war to a snoozer decision. When it comes down to it, if it goes long, I’d think Arlovski would be the better conditioned of the two. So, that’s what will sway my pick.
Winner: Arlovski, Decision.
The staff picks Andrei Arlovski, 3-0.
UFC Flyweight Championship Bout: Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson
Jeffrey Harris: This is definitely a long-awaited rematch for the flyweight division. Their first fight was a legitimate 3-2 round decision. Dodson started very strong and even knocked Johnson down twice. However, Johnson managed to rally back, proving his toughness and dominated the later rounds to win a decision. Still, it was one of the toughest and closest fights of Johnson’s career. I would say Johnson has gotten even better in that performance. However, I would also say, Dodson definitely has the tools to beat Johnson as well. Do I think that will happen here? No. I expect Johnson to win. Dodson is very fast, and he’s probably one of the few men who can keep up with Johnson’s speed. The problem is that sometimes he freezes and looks like he doesn’t know what to do. He has trouble letting his hands go. People call Johnson boring, but he’s finished four of his last five title defenses. There will be a couple tough rounds, but eventually Johnson wins the day by decision. If he wins, this will mark Johnson’s seventh successful title defense. If anyone could potentially meet or surpass Anderson Silva’s title defense record of 11, I think Johnson could be the man to do it.
Winner: Demetrious Johnson, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: This is a rematch I’ve been waiting for. If you remember, Dodson dropped Johnson twice and had the champion trailing him for the early part of their fight. If anyone has the tools to beat Johnson it is definitely Dodson. However, I don’t think it happens Saturday night. Dodson is fast and very athletic, even more so than Johnson. In addition, he has some devastating power, probably the most devastating in the division, and very strong wrestling and takedown defense. But, he hasn’t put it together like Johnson has. He struggles with accuracy and he doesn’t seem to keep a steady flow of output. Johnson on the other hand has become a technical masterpiece He has harnessed his speed and movement to become extremely technical and fundamentally sound. He also switches gear effortless to transition from one aspect of the game to another. As good as he is he continues to improve. In short, Mighty Mouse is one of the most well-rounded players in the game and is an example all the fighters should look too. While, I believe Dodson could catch Johnson with that power, I think it’s not his time just yet.
Winner: Demetrious Johnson, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Dodson’s unremarkable performance against Zach Makovsky in May, which Makovsky arguably should have won, seems to have taken a lot of the steam out of this rematch. Considering that was Dodson’s first fight back after ACL surgery, I like to think we’ll see a stronger version of him this Saturday night. As he showed in the first fight, Dodson has the speed and power to trouble Mighty Mouse, who hasn’t lost as much as a round since their January 2013 bout. However, Johnson has proven to be durable, and unless Dodson can take the fight early, Johnson should be the stronger of the two late in the fight. I cannot pick against Johnson; he is too good at every aspect of fighting. But, Dodson remains his biggest threat.
Winner: Johnson, Decision.
The staff picks Demetrious Johnson, 3-0.
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