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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm
WELCOME:
Three years after the UFC announced women were finally headed to the Octagon, two women’s title fights headline one of the biggest live shows in MMA history at Melbourne’s Etihad Stadium. In the main event, Ronda Rousey looks to continue her reign of dominance against former boxing world champion Holly Holm. In the co-main event, Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her strawweight title against Valerie Letourneau. Also, in a rematch of one of the best heavyweight bouts in UFC history, Mark Hunt battles Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. Plus, Robert Whittaker takes on Uriah Hall, Stefan Struve vs. Jared Rosholt, and more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First four prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Flyweight Bout: Ben Nguyen vs. Ryan Benoit
Jeffrey Harris: Ryan Benoit, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Ben Nguyen, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Nguyen, Decision
The staff picks Ben Nguyen, 2-1.
Welterweight Bout: Anton Zafir vs. James Moontasri
Jeffrey Harris: James Moontasri, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: James Moontasri, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Moontasri, Decision
The staff picks James Moonasri, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Richard Walsh vs. Steve Kennedy
Jeffrey Harris: Richard Walsh, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Richard Walsh, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Kennedy, Decision
The staff picks Richard Walsh, 2-1.
Middleweight Bout: Dan Kelly vs. Steve Montgomery
Jeffrey Harris: Dan Kelly, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Steve Montgomery, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Kelly, Decision
The staff picks Dan Kelly, 2-1.
Flyweight Bout: Richie Vaculik vs. Danny Martinez
Jeffrey Harris: Richie Vaculik, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Richie Vaculik, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Vaculik, Decision
The staff picks Richie Vaculik, 3-0.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Perosh vs. Gian Villante
Jeffrey Harris: Gian Villante, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Gian Villante, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Gian Villante, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Gian Villante, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Kyle Noke vs. Peter Sobotta
Jeffrey Harris: Kyle Noke, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Peter Sobotta, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Sobotta, Decision
The staff picks Peter Sobotta, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Jake Matthews vs. Akbarh Arreola
Jeffrey Harris: Jake Matthews, Submission, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Jake Matthews, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Matthews, Decision
The staff picks Jake Matthews, 3-0.
THE MAIN CARD:
Heavyweight Bout: Stefan Struve vs. Jared Rosholt
Jeffrey Harris: This is not exactly the hottest of openers for the PPV event. Jared Rosholt is actually 5-1 in the UFC, and he’s made his wrestling work pretty well for him for the most part. However, he doesn’t seem to be well-rounded enough to make it to a higher level. Rosholt’s striking is very sloppy. He doesn’t have the best reaction to getting hit, and he tends to tire pretty quickly. However, he does have good takedowns and wrestling, and he can grind out a fight. Struve is a decent fighter, but his career has seen better days. Struve has always had trouble with his striking defense despite his long range. Not to mention, he had a litany of issues to battle back from recently. he had the broken jaw after the Mark Hunt fight. After that, he had heart issues which nearly ended his fight career. Then he had personal anxiety issues in returning after the passing of his late father. He was able to pick up a win over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, but that was a very declining Nogueira who finally retired after the loss. Struve has pulled out some great wins in the past, but I sort of see Rosholt just doing what he generally does to Struve here.
Winner: Jared Rosholt
Lorenzo Vasquez III: I don’t expect this one to last too long. Either Struve catches Rosholt with something coming in, or Rosholt gets in the inside, takes down Struve, and ground and pounds him in unconsciousness. Struve lacks too much wrestling defense and Rosholt is terrible at letting it go at range. I can see them slow dancing to a decision but at some point Rosholt will rush in and either succeed or be laid unconscious. It’s a toss up.
Winner: Jared Rosholt, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Struve is an awkward opponent for almost anybody in the heavyweight division, particularly a grappler like Rosholt. Fighters aren’t used to grappling 7-footers, and Struve’s length has helped him notch submissions in the past. Struve’s chin is always an issue, and while Rosholt has some power (he is a heavyweight, after all), he’s still developing on the feet. I see this one going to the ground, where Struve’s length will prove to be a factor.
Winner: Stefan Struve, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Jared Rosholt, 2-1.
Middleweight Bout: Robert Whittaker vs. Uriah Hall
Jeffrey Harris: This was originally supposed ot be Whittaker vs. Michael Bisping, but Bisping was forced to withdraw due to injury. The good news is that Whittaker gets another top 10 opponent in Uriah Hall. Hall is actually riding a ton of momentum right now after a recent stunning knockout victory over Gegard Mousasi. If Hall can win here, he beats another ranked opponent and finally has a nice three-fight winning streak going after his UFC career started very slow. Whittaker recently moved up in weight from 170 pounds, but he has yet to look overmatched at all. Whittaker is a good example of how size and being the bigger guy does not always win fights. In his last fight, Whittaker knocked out Brad Tavares, a fighter who managed to go on a six-fight winning streak in the UFC and has about 9 or so wins inside the UFC. Before that, Whittaker also knocked out Clint Hester, who was on a four-fight UFC winning streak before that loss. A win here could put Whittaker solidly into the top 10 and much more lucrative fights. This is a good striker vs. striker battle. Hall will be the emotional and likely betting favorite. If there is one fight I would recommend consider betting on the underdog, it’s this one. Uriah Hall has some scary kicks, but Whittaker also has speed and knockout power. Hall’s other problem? he has trouble letting his hands and feet go. Hall frequently has mental issues and it causes him to start slow in multiple fights. As a result, I believe he lost a some fights he should’ve won. I would like to see Hall finally shake off these issues and come out victorious again, but I’m just not convinced he’s the real deal. I predict Whittaker to pull off an interesting upset.
Winner: Robert Whittaker, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: I like this matchup! Hall seems to be coming out of his shell finally. He defeated Gegard Mousasi a short time ago in impressive fashion. Will he finally live up to his hype? We’ll find out Saturday. Whittaker has been making a name for himself in middleweight division. To keep it short, he is a solid striker who relies on a strong fundamental boxing game. His footwork is precise and effective and he is a strong boxer in the pocket. Hall is athletic, dynamic, and explosive. He is flashy and has an improving game to compliment his flashy striking. He can deliver strong takedowns and incorporates them well with his in and out game. Can he get done against Whittaker? I don’t think so. I think Whittaker’s game is too tight and at middleweight he has power. Hall will try to stick to basics and throw some flashy stuff here and there but Whittaker will be better and he either catch Hall coming in or hunt him down.
Winner: Robert Whittaker, Decision
Dan Plunkett: You never know what to expect with Uriah Hall. As soon as you think he’ll use his uncommon athleticism to go on a nice run, he comes out flat and never recovers. When you start expecting him to come out flat, he kicks you in the face really hard. Really hard. Whittaker is very talented and, at 24, appears to be progressing quite a bit. Due to Hall’s inconsistency, and the fact that he took the match on short notice, I’m leaning toward Whittaker.
Winner: Robert Whittaker, Decision
The staff picks Robert Whittaker, 3-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva
Jeffrey Harris: This is a rematch to a highly lauded five-round war between these two at UFC Fight Night 33. The fight ended in a draw, which was then overturned to a NO CONTEST for Silva due to failing a drug test for high testosterone levels due to his use of TRT. Not sure how that works if the other guy didn’t win, but it’s still a draw for Hunt. Oh well. So these two are facing each other yet again. I imagine we will learn if Hunt still has it in him to stop someone or if maybe the wear and tear of his recent battles is starting to set in. Antonio Silva has never had the strongest of chins, and Hunt’s hands are still massively dangerous. I could be off, but I’m picking a good ole’ Mark Hunt decides here.
Winner: Mark Hunt, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: This is a rematch of a fight that will live on as a classic in MMA. The only problem is, it won’t live up to the first one. Let’s face it. Silva isn’t close to what he was the first time he met Hunt. Since that time he’s been on a steady decline. Sure he won his last fight but he wasn’t in there with a top ten heavyweight. Hunt isn’t the same fighter he once was either, however, since his first bout with Silva, he’s been in the cage with far better competition and though he suffered some defeats he’s still shown he’s tough as nails and has the tools to beat someone like “Bigfoot.” Hunt was on his way to beating Fabricio Werdum for the interim heavyweight title only a year ago. That’s crazy to fathom for some. Stipe Miocic put a beating on Hunt in Hunt’s last outing, but still, I think Hunt has more gas left in the tank than Silva. Silva is well-rounded but he’ll get tagged to often by the Super Samoan. Hunt’s championship caliber kickboxing will be too much for Silva this time around.
Winner: Mark Hunt, KO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Antonio Silva has not been the same fighter since he and Mark Hunt went to a draw in December of 2013. However, it’s worth noting that Mark Hunt shares the same 1-2 record as Silva since that bout, and whereas Silva won his last fight, Hunt was brutalized by Stipe Miocic. Hunt is also 41, so it’s likely he isn’t the same guy that went to that legendary draw in December of 2013 either. However, Hunt has only lost to elite level heavyweights, and he even had some moments against Fabricio Werdum last November. With his power and striking ability, coupled with Silva’s often questioned chin, Hunt is the favorite here.
Winner: Hunt, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Mark Hunt, 3-0.
UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship Bout: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valerie Letourneau
Jeffrey Harris: Valerie Letourneau gets a huge opportunity to face Joanna Champion for the UFC women’s strawweight title here on one of the biggest stages ever. This will be a striker vs. striker battle, and with that in mind, I heavily favor Jedrzejczyk. Letourneau is coming in with a slight height, reach and size advantage, but Jedrzejczyk I believe will be able to make up for that. Jedrzejczyk’s striking and pace are simply nasty. I see Letourneau hanging in there for a couple rounds, but Jedrzejczyk will eventually finish this.
Winner: Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Round 3
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Rousey is good and I love watching her fight, but what Rousey lacks Joanna Jedrzejczyk has, and that’s competition. Joanna is good and at least she is in a division that has a bit more competition than the women’s bantamweight division. She an elite striker and her takedown defense is beyond solid. She has the ability keep the fight standing and it literally breaks her opponents. It’s amazing to watch and I sense that is what we’ll see Saturday night. Her opponent, Letourneau, is a solid offensive striker, one of the better in the division. However, her stand up defense trails behind and her ground game really isn’t close to top notch. She might be competitive earlier on but as the fight wears on, her defense will let her down. Letourneau just isn’t good enough. Joana will outbox her and eventually find the TKO.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: I have a really hard time seeing Letourneau challenging Joanna. Where Letourneau is solid, Joanna is top notch. Joanna Champion wins this one on the feet by a wide margin.
Winner: Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Joanna Jedrzejczyk, 3-0.
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout: Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm
Jeffrey Harris: Now there are always these intangible X factors you could talk about here. There’s Ronda Rousey’s dating life. There’s her mother publicly insulting and calling out her coach and trainer Edmond Tarverdyan. There’s also the recent public news that Tarverdyan has filed for bankruptcy and claim that he made no money from coaching Rousey, which is hard to believe. Plus all the media, press, Hollywood obligations, blah blah blah. So yeah, Rousey has a lot on her plate. But does one actually bet on that affecting her for the fight? I’m not. Now with the undefeated Holly Holm, I do see interesting ways she could match up with Rousey. Holm will be the bigger woman in this fight. I don’t recall Rousey ever being the smaller fighter in her previous UFC title fights. Holm is good at fighting at range and keeping distance. She’s also shown good grappling and takedown defense in her previous UFC fights. However, in those fights, Holm was not facing the level of grappling that Rousey brings to the table. And it’s not just the grappling, but Rousey’s slick transitions and obviously dangerous striking and ground and pound. Obviously, anything can happen in a fight. I believe you can almost never entirely rule out an outcome of an underdog like Holm winning. I just don’t feel confident that it can happen here. I think this might get out of the first round because Rousey might have to figure out how to get inside and get ahold of Holm. However, I do think Rousey will get ahold of her and eventually chip away. And then she will eventually submit her.
Winner: Ronda Rousey, Submission, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Rousey defends her title against former professional boxer Holly Holm. Again, like her pervious foes, Holm is being billed as Rousey’s toughest foe to date, and again, Rousey will very likely walk away with her hand raised. Judging by Holm’s last two performances, it is difficult to say she will wipe the floor with Rousey, let alone walk away with the win. But that’s just it! That is Holm’s game. She excels at keeping distance by employing a stick-and-move game. She constantly stays on her toes, moves, and feints occasionally setting up an offensive attack. It isn’t pretty and it isn’t too entertaining but it works and has kept her undefeated in her short MMA career. The former professional boxing champion has also developed some decent takedown defense. Is it good enough to stop Rousey from tossing her through the mat? No, and the same can be said about her ground game. Holm also lacks power in her punches. Rousey isn’t an excellent striker by any means but her aggression makes her stand up presence overwhelming; especially, in a division that is well below Rousey’s level. We all know what happens when Rousey closes the distance…it’s usually the end via knees, punches, or a takedown and submission. That’s how I expect it to happen Saturday night. Can Holm get the upset? Sure, her pedigree speaks for itself. It is possible she could have Rousey chasing her all night and winning a close decision. But I just don’t see it happening. Rousey wins via armbar in the 3rd round.
Winner: Ronda Rousey, Submission, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: My feelings on this matchup haven’t changed since it first became a possibility. Holm is an interesting challenger in as much as she will force Rousey to adjust to things that she isn’t used to adjusting to. Her movement is great, and her strikes are very good and well placed. However, Holm’s movement isn’t going to stop Rousey from grabbing a hold of her for 25 minutes, and she doesn’t have the kind of power to make a knockout a likely outcome. On the floor, there’s a gap in experience, there’s a gap in skill, and there’s a gap in speed. Rousey wins, but I think it goes at least a couple of minutes.
Winner: Rousey, Submission, Round 1
The staff picks Ronda Rousey, 3-0.
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