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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes
Image Credit: UFC
WELCOME:
It’s UFC 200! In the main event, Miesha Tate makes her first bantamweight title defense against Amanda Nunes! Before that, Brock Lesnar returns to the UFC in a special heavyweight attraction against Mark Hunt! At light heavyweight, Anderson Silva steps up on short notice to fight 205-pound champion Daniel Cormier! The interim featherweight title is up for grabs when Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar meet again! Plus, former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez begins his quest back to the belt against Travis Browne, and much more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Lightweight Bout: Jim Miller vs. Takanori Gomi
Jeffrey Harris: Jim Miller, Submission, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: Jim Miller, TKO, Round One
Robert Winfree: Jim Miller, Submission, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Jim Miller, Submission, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Miller, Decision
The staff picks Jim Miller, 5-0.
Middleweight Bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Thiago Santos
Jeffrey Harris: Gegard Mousasi, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Gegard Mousasi, Decision
Robert Winfree: Gegard Mousasi, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Mousasi, Decision
The staff picks Gegard Mousasi, 5-0.
Lightweight Bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Lauzon
Jeffrey Harris: Joe Lauzon, Decision
Jon Butterfield: Joe Lauzon, Decision
Robert Winfree: Joe Lauzon, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Diego Sanchez, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Sanchez, Decision
The staff picks Joe Lauzon, 3-2.
Lightweight Bout: Sage Northcutt vs. Enrique Marín
Jeffrey Harris: Sage Northcutt, TKO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield: Sage Northcutt, TKO, Round One
Robert Winfree: Sage Northcutt, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Sage Northcutt, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Marín, Submission, Round 3
The staff picks Sage Northcutt, 4-1.
Bantamweight Bout: T.J. Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao
Jeffrey Harris: T.J. Dillashaw, Decision
Jon Butterfield: TJ Dillashaw, Decision
Robert Winfree: TJ Dillashaw, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: T.J. Dillashaw, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Dillashaw, Decision
The staff picks T.J. Dillashaw, 5-0.
Welterweight Bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Jeffrey Harris: Kelvin Gastelum, TKO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: Johny Hendricks, Decision
Robert Winfree: Johny Hendricks, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Johny Hendricks, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Gastelum, Decision
The staff picks Johny Hendricks, 3-2.
Bantamweight Bout: Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena
Jeffrey Harris: Cat Zingano, TKO, Round 2
Jon Butterfield: Julianna Pena, Decision
Robert Winfree: Cat Zingano, TKO, Round 3
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Cat Zingano, Split-decision
Dan Plunkett: Pena, Decision
The staff picks Cat Zingano, 3-2.
THE MAIN CARD:
Heavyweight Bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
Jeffrey Harris: This is a tough call. Cain Velasquez has had moments where it looked like he’d be dominating the heavyweight scene for years. Then he ended up losing the heavyweight title on two separate occasions. His amazing work ethic that likely brought him to the title could likely factor into what’s cutting his career short now. He’s constantly injured and getting hurt without being able to fight very often. Travis Browne on the other hand has gone through some regressive changes with his fighting style. His striking looks a lot sloppier with wide openings as of late. Now provided Cain Velasquez is healthy and ready to go, I’m picking him to win here. If he can maintain his trademark pace for three rounds, I see him ultimately breaking down Browne.
Winner: Cain Velasquez, Decision
Jon Butterfield: I was incredibly high on Travis Browne prior to his defeat at the hands of Andrei Arlovski, and still believe he’s an underrated talent having crushed some of the true stalwarts of heavyweight MMA. Mobile, creative, and undeniably powerful, Browne is a hulking brute who hasn’t reached his true potential – and now the concern has to be maybe he never will. That concern will soon evaporate if he can cast down the great Cain Velasquez, however. Despite the disappointment of his title defeat to brilliant Brazilian Fabricio Werdum and the thirteen month injury-lengthened break since that loss, I have no real reason to believe Velasquez isn’t as good or better than he was during his title run. Mental fortitude doesn’t seem to be something Velasquez lacks, as he proved in crushing wins over Bigfoot Silva and JDS following his then-sole MMA defeat to dos Santos. Here, I expect him to show that he has all the tools and the mental resilience to batter an athletic big man like Browne, who lacks the crucial ability to dictate levels against such a dangerous foe. While Browne is always capable of springing huge upsets with his monstrous power and ability to pull off the unexpected, I’m not sure he’s capable of dealing with the pace Velasquez will set. If Cain comes forward with real aggression, he wins this.
Winner: Cain Velasquez, TKO, Round Three
Robert Winfree: Two or three years ago this was a very interesting fight, Travis Browne was rising through the ranks and looked good while doing so and Cain Velasquez was a monster who was potentially going to be the greatest heavyweight of all time. A few years later, a team change for Browne and some injuries to Velasquez have taken a fair amount of the shine off of this fight. The move to the Glendale Fight Club hasn’t done Travis Browne’s game any favors, his striking defense got worse and even his offense lost a fair amount of technique in favor of theoretical aggression. Browne at his best poses a few problems for Velasquez, he’s a big long fighter who has pretty good takedown defense and has the power to trouble him. Sadly Browne isn’t at his best right now, he’s too prone to engage in wild brawls, keeps his chin too straight up in the air, and puts himself off balance too often. Cain Velasquez is unlikely to become the best heavyweight ever at this point, too many injuries and too much time away from fighting, but he’s still a tremendous fighter. While Velasquez doesn’t have the best head movement either he’s better at intelligently closing distance, mixes in takedowns with his striking game, and has shown tremendous conditioning in all but one of his fights. I’m struggling to see how Browne will beat Velasquez, he’s got a punchers chance and this is the heavyweight division, but Velasquez should overwhelm him and will likely be shoved back into the title mix before the end of this year.
Winner: Cain Velasquez, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Travis Browne has a heavy task placed in front of him. He is definitely the underdog and for good reason. Cain Velasquez, the former Heavyweight champion, is one helluva of a fighter to try to get through when you’re not in the high altitude in Mexico City. Browne is not really in same level as Velasquez or any other top five heavyweight, but let’s give him some credit. He’s working at Glendale fighting Club and in his time there he has looked nothing like the promising prospect fighting out of Jackson/Winkeljohn MMA in Albuquerque, NM. It’s quite disappointing because I believe the Travis Browne of then had the tools and athleticism to give trouble to any given heavyweight. He was unorthodox, long, and punishing. At least he still has reach and power behind his strikes. But judging from his last few fights, things don’t look too promising.
Velasquez is a grinder. His striking is good enough to push his foes back into the cage where he works dirty boxing off the clinch and takedowns. On the ground he grinds his opponents by using his wrestling to ride them while dropping heavy leather on their face. He pushes the pace in all areas and has the stamina to do it for five rounds. Browne is tough, but his defense seems week, Matt Mitrione was able to get some work in on him. I expect Velasquez to get on the inside and punish Browne against the cage while carefully looking for takedowns. He will do his for two or three rounds before the ref stops the actions.
Winner: Cain Velasquez, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Where is Cain Velasquez physically at as he approaches his 34th birthday? He obviously has some wear and tear on him, but I don’t know to what degree. Browne is a tough fight for Velasquez, particularly when the former champion hasn’t fought in more than a year. Browne is a much longer opponent than Velasquez is used to dealing with, he has power, and Velasquez can be hittable. However, I have to pick Velasquez’s unrelenting attack here.
Winner: Velasquez, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Cain Velasquez, 5-0.
UFC Interim Featherweight Championship Bout: Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar
Jeffrey Harris: Another hard call for me. I was there live for the first fight, and I think Jose Aldo pretty clearly won that fight. It was a typical Frankie Edgar performance, but lately he’s looked better than ever at featherweight. He knocked out Chad Mendes in his last fight. Aldo is coming off the first knockout loss of his career, after being put down by Conor McGregor in just 13 seconds. Aldo’s got very good takedown defense and exceptional leg kicks. Only one guy figured out a good way to combat that in Chad Mendes. It was not a technique Edgar dealt with the first time, and that’s after Aldo’s experience with hurting his opponents with brutal leg kicks was well documented. I could be going out on a limb here, but I feel like Aldo some how walks away with a win again.
Winner: Jose Aldo, Decision
Jon Butterfield: It shouldn’t escape MMA fans that Nova Unaio’s most prominent exponents are rocking. Barao cannot seem to find a win regardless of his weight class, JDS has lost as many as he’s won in his last 6 fights, and the likes of Hacran Dias and Thales Leites have struggled. There are obvious exceptions such as ‘Dudu’ Dantas in Bellator alongside a plethora of fighters at lower levels, but at the very highest echelons of the sport the team’s success has been limited, if not 50-50. Aldo may be the one exception. Despite a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it defeat to Conor McGregor, Aldo was able to remain dominant in all preceding fights. You can thereby chalk up the McGregor defeat to misfortune, or you can delve deeper and worry that maybe Nova Uniao, despite possessing some of the very best fighters in the world, are no longer ahead of the game. Step up Frankie Edgar, the perfect test for any fighter seeking to prove they belong at the very highest level. Despite a loss to Aldo back in 2013, the featherweight landscape has dramatically changed since and many feel Edgar should in fact be facing divisional champion Conor McGregor at this very event. Sadly, certain distractions have ensured that won’t happen, so Edgar needs to face Aldo to cement his position as top contender at 145 lbs. If, that is, McGregor ever defends that belt again.
Leading in to this fight, a first round stoppage of Chad Mendes shows Edgar is as strong as ever, and ready to take advantage of any mental weakness on Aldo’s behalf. Furthermore, Edgar has torn through enough top featherweight talent that few still disparage him for being granted successive title shots despite coming off a failed title defence in another weight class. He’s no longer ‘that guy’, and more ‘the guy’. In conclusion, while I don’t feel the criticisms of Nova Uniao are a fair representation of Jose Aldo as an individual fighter, it does make me worry about the mental fortitude within the camp. If anyone was ever going to take advantage of that, it’s Edgar.
Winner: Frankie Edgar, Decision
Robert Winfree: I really enjoyed the first fight between these two, sadly I don’t think this one will resemble that one very much. A fair amount of time has passed and both men are different fighters now. Jose Aldo is coming off of his first ever loss via strikes, and before that he engaged in an all out war with Chad Mendes. Aldo’s technical proficiency has dipped a little over his last three fights, he’s still a tremendous fighter but his chin might be a little cracked and some of his decisions aren’t as good as they were in the past. Conversely there’s Frankie Edgar, who’s only gotten better since losing to Aldo though he still has a few exploitable issues. Frankie Edgar, for all of the talk of his footwork, still tends to attack in straight lines. That was a habit Aldo exploited beautifully in their first encounter, yet the most recent version of Aldo hasn’t had the same level of footwork he used to. Were these two fighting anyone else I feel I could pick that fight easier, Aldo vs. anyone else except for McGregor goes to Aldo, and Edgar vs. anyone else including McGregor would go to Edgar but the way these two can match up leaves a lot up for discussion. Aldo’s jab and leg kicks worked Edgar over handily, Edgar’s toughness and conditioning are still in play and he’s made a few adjustments to his game such as more attempted finishes and a generally higher work rate. I’ve never picked against Jose Aldo, and I might seriously regret doing so here, but I think Aldo lost a little something in that war with Chad Mendes and Edgar has just looked better and better recently.
Winner: Frankie Edgar, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: This is a great rematch. We have two guys at a crossroad. Aldo has to bounce back from his knockout loss to Conor McGregor, while Edgar has to get to the title now in the featherweight division or it may never happen. Edgar looked very impressive in his last fight when he stopped Chad Mendes in the opening of the first round. He’s looked far more aggressive and has improved his foot movement. He throws fast and punishing counters from close range and he hits takedowns from the inside as well. His jab is crisp and he follows up with a nice straight or aggressive combinations. If he gets you on the ground he punishes you with a top heavy game and some ground and pound. His defense is sound all-around. He is a perfect machine, but this doesn’t mean he is unbeatable.
Aldo is similar to a Muay Thai fighter. We all know he has that infamous and thunderous leg kick he uses to keep opponents at bay and to setup his punches and knees. His movement is great, he is agile, fast, and demonstrates great head moment (with exception to you know which fight…). He adapts while to what his opponents are showing him. That’s the reason he was a champion for so long. He is athletic and agile and explosive. He explodes into his strikes giving a punishing affect. He also sports some of the best takedown defense in the sport and is above a sound submission grappler.
Unless, Aldo is fading after 27 professional fights or the McGregor loss really messed with him mentally, I don’t see him losing. Yes, Edgar has improved and looked very impressive, but Aldo has the game to beat him. Edgar will have to get takedowns and use his top heavy game to keep Aldo down. If he can’t do this, he won’t win. On the feet, Edgar will pressure Aldo and the Brazilian will throw it right back at him. Edgar will land, but Aldo will dish it right back and then some. Maybe, Edgar has a different plan and it works. But, I think Aldo is not done. It should be a close and exciting fight.
Winner: Jose Aldo, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Jose Aldo has probably lost a step since these two last fought, while Edgar appears to have made improvements. I expect this to be close, but I’m leaning Edgar. He’s the more active fighter and his striking has gotten better, which should help him win a decision.
Winner: Frankie Edgar, Decision
The staff picks Frankie Edgar, 3-2.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Daniel Cormier vs. Anderson Silva
Jon Butterfield: Well who saw this coming?! Jon Jones tests positive and all of a sudden the UFC 200 main event is in jeopardy – again. Not wanting to let what sounds a very intense camp go to waste, Cormier would probably have fought anyone at this point, and in Anderson Silva he has the chance to claim a victory over the one of the greatest of all time. Silva may not be the force he once was, and his performances against Diaz and Bisping weren’t a patch on previous outings, but if Cormier wanted to lay one on a world class substitute opponent who once also got busted by the anti-doping authorities, he could do worse than Anderson Silva.
One thing is for sure, if Cormier is able to land an emphatic KO on Silva as I’m expecting here, it will forever adorn UFC highlight reels even if Silva is taking a big risk jumping up to 205 on such short notice. Still, I’m sure he’ll be duly compensated, and it’s not like anyone believes for a second Silva doesn’t think he will win this. As one of the most mercurial talents to ever grace the cage, Silva is a veritable one off. No fighter in the sport’s history has fought in the manner Silva has at the very highest echelons of the sport. Sure, there are fighters who have displayed otherworldly audaciousness, but when it came to cementing their eventual legacy, all but one have opted to reign things in and play it a little safer. GSP, Jon Jones, remain in your seats, gents.
Ultimately, however, Silva will forever be remembered for dying on his sword. When he was eventually toppled by Chris Weidman, the very nature of his loss still left many an unanswered question, even if his legendary status and mythic renown endured. Since then, however, Silva has shown he is no longer five steps ahead of the competition, even if he remains a legitimate threat. Cormier will have to circumnavigate that threat, and the best course of action may be wrestling; but I wouldn’t bank on that being an out-and-out strategy. Cormier is a high level striker and he’s bigger and stronger than Silva, even if Silva has eaten up bigger and stronger competition before. But we’re talking the Anderson Silva of today, as opposed to the Anderson that effectively rinsed the UFC Middleweight division across six long years.
Still, if 2016 has taught us anything, it’s that nobody is invincible, and no underdog can be safely written off. A year of shocks, title changes, and unbelievable outcomes, there could yet be another stunning upset if Anderson embraces the spirit of ‘The Spider’ of old and lays seige to a potentially frustrated Cormier.
Winner: Daniel Cormier, TKO, Round One
Robert Winfree: I imagine there existed a time period when this might have been an interesting fight, but now is not that time. Anderson Silva just had gall bladder surgery two months ago, and while he passed his medicals for this short notice fight the man simply isn’t what he used to be. Silva always had a wrestling weakness, even at his best and he’s not his best anymore. He’s got a punchers chance here if he can tag Cormier and recapture a bit of the magic that used to be, but Cormier is too good all around. Cormier has also absorbed punches from harder hitters than Silva. Cormier gets close, works the clinch, elevates and slams Silva then controls the action on the mat.
Winner: Daniel Cormier, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Talk about saving the day. Anderson Silva dropped in and brought back up the spirits of millions. By the way Jon Jones, come on man! You ain’t getting any putty from me so cry all you want. Anyways, a big thank you to Silva for stepping up on extremely short notice. This is actually an intriguing fight. It would be more in intriguing if Silva was still in his prime, but it’s interesting, nonetheless. “The Spider” is elusive and difficult to find. Of course, he isn’t as elusive as he once was but all it takes is for one opening and he’ll turn those lights out. He is primary a counter striker and waits for his opponent to engage and over extent at which point he lands his punches and kicks with great accuracy. If his opponent won’t engage, he’ll throw low kicks to try make them comply. His takedown defense was once above average but like his overall skill, it’s degraded a bit. And of course, he is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt.
Daniel Cormier is a wrestler and he brings that toughness and mentality into his fights. His striking is developing. it neither bad or above average. Where he is great is in the inside and the clinch where he uncorks some vicious dirty boxing and takedown attempts. If he takes you down, he controls you while punishing you with hard punches, and he won’t shy away from submission attempts. Anderson Silva needs to evade Cormier’s aggression and pressure and make him pay every time he over extents or comes in too aggressive. He has to use that Muay Thai clinch to circle away from the cage and punish Cormier every time he clinches. Silva is one of the greatest of all time and this why. He was a fantastic counter fighters and his Muay Thai clinch was brutal. The only thing he always struggled with was with great wrestlers or great submission fighters. Cormier is just that, a great wrestler. Cormier has to get a hold of Silva and grind him into defeat via a stoppage or decision.
Silva is no longer a spring chicken and Cormier is like no other light heavyweight Silva fought. Cormier is a monster and I am sure he’ll put Silva to bed early. In fact, I’m not entirely convinced a prime Anderson Silva handle DC. Plus, Silva just recently had his gallbladder removed and hasn’t been in hard training for a while. Cormier will get the technical knockout late in the first or early into the second.
Winner: Daniel Cormier, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: I admit to being curious about this fight, but I’m uncomfortable with Silva taking the fight without any training. If Silva had a full training camp, I believe he’d have some nice moments and there would be really great clinch work on both ends, but ultimately Cormier would handle him. In this instance, I think things could get quite bad for him. Cormier has power, he’s sharp, he’s going to have a major cardio edge, he’ll have a wrestling advantage, and he’ll be significantly heavier. Sure, Silva could land something, but I don’t see that being a likely outcome.
Winner: Cormier, KO, Round 1
The staff picks Daniel Cormier, 4-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
Jeffrey Harris: It’s not going to be a good night for Brock Lesnar and Brock Lesnar fans. This is the worst possible match-up for him to fight a motivated and in-shape Mark Hunt, who is looking better than ever even at age 42. Lesnar shouldn’t have taken a fight like this against Hunt after being away from the cage for so long. The problem isn’t just with the striking. Of course nobody likes getting hit. But Lesnar’s problem is the way he reacts when he’s hit hard. He clearly doesn’t like it and he’s not able to react well when that happens. Hunt will decide when this fight ends. He’s going to take Lesnar to the dark lands and leave him there. This will be Lesnar’s true last MMA fight.
Winner: Mark Hunt, TKO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: Brock Lesnar is a freak athlete. Quite probably if ever a guy could go from wrestling in WWE one day to beating an MMA legend the next, it’s him. But it’s still a stretch. MMA isn’t something you can commit to at will, or at least that’s what we’re all led to believe. Yet still he has certain theoretical advantages in this fight, such as his world class wrestling and the fact Hunt has been pretty terrible off his back in the past. Still, ‘off his back’ isn’t really something we’ve come to associate with Hunt, and that isn’t simply a fluke. While Hunt was easily beaten by Sean McCorkle in his UFC debut, and while his pre-UFC record was pretty woeful, almost nobody not currently a champion in the UFC has successfully followed up such an obvious blueprint against such a massively heavy hitter.
Frank Mir tried three takedowns on Hunt, and failed every time. Bigfoot Silva didn’t bother. Miocic, memorably, used this strategy to his advantage with six of eight successful takedowns to his credit, while Werdum, like Mir, was unable to secure any of his three efforts. Nelson grounded Hunt once out of six attempts, while JDS shot just once (successfully) while Struve and Kongo didn’t attempt any. Rothwell went for a takedown-heavy strategy way back when but landed only 2 of 14, while Brock’s one-time training partner Tuchscherer achieved 1 in 4.
Clearly, Hunt isn’t an easy man to take down. Hark back, then, to Lesnar-Overeem, and the minute Lesnar found himself unable to ground a clearly superior striker, his best-laid plans went out the window. Having said that, I’m still struggling to understand how Lesnar wasn’t capable of taking Overeem down given the mix of technique and unworldly power he packs. I understand and credit Velasquez’s takedown defence against Brock as phenomenal and see why that led to Lesnar’s demise, but Hunt, like Overeem, is nothing like Cain. The question now is this: can Lesnar take Hunt down, or can Hunt, like Overeem, repel any such attempt despite the odds? If it stays on the feet, Lesnar has proven inept at taking damage or even defending well against better strikers. Even with a takedown, however, does Lesnar still have a serious advantage over a great veteran like Hunt given his absolute lack of top level participation? That’s why it’s a great fight, though, right, that level of intrigue? For me, while Lesnar is clearly a superior wrestler and Hunt has a historical weakness to strong wrestlers, how do you pick against a fighter that has been blitzing some of the best MMA fighters in the world when he’s facing in essence, a part-timer? You can’t.
Ultimately, the end will come if Lesnar either cannot ground Hunt, doesn’t get the chance to shoot, or grounds Hunt but cannot maintain top control. Any of those options will instantly favour Hunt for a nasty, perhaps relatively easy out, and that all seems more likely than Lesnar’s solitary option. Still… impossible is nothing, right?
Winner: Mark Hunt, TKO, Round One
Robert Winfree: Well through a series of bizarre circumstances, Brock Lesnar will have headlined UFC 100 and UFC 200. Both of these men have a very clear, very defined path to victory. For Brock Lesnar it is to get Mark Hunt down and pound his face in, for Mark Hunt it’s to knock Lesnar’s head into the fifth row. Lesnar is capable of winning this fight, his athleticism and wrestling shouldn’t be overlooked and he’s got some power in his blows both on the feet and on the mat. For Lesnar to be successful he can’t just try to tackle Hunt down, Mark Hunt has developed a great sprawl and a surprisingly effective limp leg yet he struggles against fighters who can chain together takedown attempts. Hunt will also bite on fakes and feints, watch his fight with Stipe Miocic if you don’t believe me, and timing a takedown with his forward motion is key to actually getting him down rather than simply trying to bull rush him. Lesnar has the theoretical capability to do that, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to execute. Lesnar reacts very poorly to getting hit, not to say his chin is bad but his reactions are poor and if he finds himself just covering up and backing into the fence then Hunt will knock his block off. I’m going with Hunt here, because Mark Hunt decides after all, but I just want to mention that should Lesnar be successful I wont be terribly surprised.
Winner: Mark Hunt, KO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: The beast incarnate returns for a showdown with one of, if not the, hardest hitter in the division, “The Super Samoan” Mark hunt. It’s a short notice fight for both as the bout was put together at the last minute, so to speak. On a side note, win or lose Lesnar will now be credited for having headlined both UFC 100 and 200. Damn you Jon Jones, damn you. I feel that Lesnar isn’t getting the credit or respect he is due. In all seriousness, regardless of the numerous claims that Lesnar is not a real fighter or that he can’t handle getting hit, this is a winnable fight for him. I’m not saying it’s an easy fight, but he can win. The man is a freak athlete. His physical and athletic gifts make him a wrestling powerhouse and his top game unrelenting and crushing. He never showcased fluidity in his striking, and his defense was always penetrable. His game best revolves around bull rushing a takedown, or powering a takedown from the clinch, and smothering top control—riding his opponent while mashing their face with his fist.
Mark Hunt is a hard hitting and gritty veteran. You can rest assure, that no matter how trying the fight gets, Hunt will never stop looking for a path to victory until he is stopped or the final bell rings. No, no, no. You won’t see him burning out like Shane Carwin. In addition, Hunt can take some punishment. He is a technical striker and sets up and times his strikes on account of what his opponent is doing. If they are dropping for a takedown, his jab will be waiting. Push forward and he slips out and counters with a jab, hook, or overhand. Indeed, he has become crafty with time and has developed sound wrestling defense.
If Lesnar can get by Hunt’s takedown defense and ground him, I have no doubt Hunt will have a difficult time getting back to his feet as Lesnar begins batter him with punches. This will be especially true the longer the fight goes. If Hunt can circle and avoid the clinch and bull rush, I have no doubt he can out strike Lesnar and get the technical knockout stoppage. Lesnar doesn’t necessarily go out cold when hit, he just seens to panic and have no clue on what to do. So, who wins? Lesnar has been out for about five years and I have no doubt ring rust may be an issue. He has seemed calm and collected throughout the week, but still, jumping in there after a five year absence with a top ten is a large task. It won’t surprise me if Lesnar wins, but I see this fight going like Lesnar vs. Overeem, albeit slower in pace. Lesnar, after a five year absence, will start slow and look hesitant and Hunt will take advantage. Hunt picks apart Lesnar for two rounds before the ref calls a stop to the action.
Winner: Mark Hunt, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: It seems silly to pick Brock Lesnar here. He hasn’t competed in almost five years, and it’s not as though he was in the gym every day in that period rolling around on the mats. I don’t know when he started training for this fight, but after such a lengthy absence it usually takes a very long time to get back into the swing of things, if that’s even possible at 38-years-old. Plus, there’s that whole “doesn’t take a punch well” thing and Hunt hits damn hard. All that said, the task isn’t insurmountable for Lesnar. He can win. He can take Mark Hunt down. He can pound on Hunt’s face with his too-small 5XL gloves. He can lay on Hunt and make him feel his weight. The tricky part is doing it before being punched in the face, or shaking off a punch and keeping your bearings enough to shoot a solid takedown. Then, if Hunt gets back to his feet, you have to do it again. Hunt is the favorite for a reason, but let’s go with Brock.
Winner: Lesnar, Decision
The staff picks Mark Hunt, 4-1.
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout: Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
Jeffrey Harris: Amanda Nunes is very dangerous with some deadly knockout power. If Miesha Tate isn’t careful, we could see an upset and a new champion here. It wouldn’t be surprise me, since the women’s bantamweight division is quite competitive. I think what Tate has going for her here is that she’s a good game planner, and she’s good at going into the later rounds. Nunes has clearly faded in many of her big fights before in the later rounds. If Tate takes her into the deeper waters, I believe that’s how she ultimately wins out here.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Decision
Jon Butterfield: While I feel that Women’s MMA is still a fairly young division and there is always a large amount of guesswork going into each prediction, I think it’s fairly easy to lean towards Tate in this bout. I think Tate is durable enough to withstand Nunes’ undeniably heavy artillery, and her grappling is effective enough to cause Nunes enough problems that a finish is a very real possibility. I’m still not sure I’d say Tate is the best female fighter in the world, but she’s certainly a very worthy champion and that mantle should really be hers to lose. I wouldn’t be stunned by a Nunes stoppage victory, far from it, but to me Nunes seems the more beatable fighter and despite one great win over Sara McMann, I’m not sure she’s ready for the top three women in the world.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Decision
Robert Winfree: I don’t have a whole lot to say here, Amanda Nunes is the rightful top contender right now but has a few obvious short comings. Specifically she gasses relatively quickly but is absolutely ferocious during those first five or so minutes. Miesha Tate is a very durable fighter and unless she gets blown out by a burst of early offense she should have this one relatively in the bag.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Submission, Round 4
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Miesha Tate is looking to get her title run going by defeating Amanda Nunes, who has steadily climbed the ladder. Nunes is a finisher with no stamina, while Tate is a survivor who gets better with time, and this is what this fight boils down too…can Tate survive Nunes’ out pour and come back to break an exhausted foe? Or, will Nunes’ burst and power be too much for Tate to survive?
Nunes is a powerful and aggressive striker and her ground game isn’t much different. Her movement is sound and she likes to hit combinations by coming in through angles. Her low kicks are hard and she uses them to set her range, regroup, or setup combinations. Her wrestling is decent and her top game revolves around her landing powerful punches and pursuing submissions.
Tate is a slow starter but she is tough, perhaps, the toughest in the division, but that is arguable. Anyhow, her striking is developing; it is sound, but not great. Nonetheless, she is competitive in the division. She is hittable but her movement seems to improve as the fight wears on. Tate is a wrestler, simply put. And this is really the purpose of her striking—to setup the wrestling. She can get takedowns from the clinch and by shooting in for a single or double. Her takedown completion is good. From the ground she likes to unload the ground and pound while searching for submissions.
Both women are intelligent fighters; however, Nunes always seems to run out of breath fairly early. Tate gets into trouble but always seems to squeeze out of trouble and beat down her foes. Nunes needs to finish this fight early, within the 1st or 2nd. If she fails to do so Tate will pick up the pace as she fades and gets finished or losses a decision. Tate has to be wary of Nunes’s accurate and heavy punches early because Nunes will put her away if given the chance. Tate should be able to get the win. Her experience, improving game, intelligence, and grittiness should be able to fend off Nunes and help her get the submission or stoppage in the third or fourth.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Submission, Round 4
Dan Plunkett: Yesterday, I would have picked Miesha Tate in a competitive fight. Amanda Nunes is a storm, and Tate has shown she can persevere through storms and come out on top. However, it appears Tate had a bad weight cut. I think that will swing things Nunes’ way. She may need to show some more of the patience she showed in her last fight, but the BJJ black belt has the skills to win.
Winner: Nunes, Decision
The staff picks Miesha Tate, 4-1.
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