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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley

July 30, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett
Tyron Woodley

WELCOME:
Robbie Lawler makes his third welterweight title defense when he takes on Tyron Woodley in the main event of UFC 201! In the co-main event, Rose Namajunas looks to end Karolina Kowalkiewicz’s unbeaten streak in strawweight action. At welterweight, Matt Brown aims to take out Jake Ellenberger. Plus, Francisco Rivera fights Erik Perez, Ian McCall vs. Justin Scoggins, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • He’s 411’s Jack of All Trades, Jeffrey Harris!

  • Your host, Dan Plunkett!

  • And the Scoutmaster, Jon Butterfield!

    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
    First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 2.
    Lightweight Bout: César Arzamendia vs. Damien Brown

    Robert Winfree: Cesar Arzamendia, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Damien Brown, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Arzamendia, Decision
    Jon Butterfield: Cesar Arzamendia, Decision
    The staff picks Cesar Arzamendia, 3-1.

    Flyweight Bout: Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano

    Robert Winfree: Fredy Serrano, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Ryan Benoit, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Benoit, TKO, Round 2
    Jon Butterfield: Ryan Benoit, TKO, Round One
    The staff picks Ryan Benoit, 3-1.

    Welterweight Bout: Michael Graves vs. Bojan Veličković

    Robert Winfree: Michael Graves, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Michael Graves, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Graves, Decision
    Jon Butterfield: Michael Graves, Decision
    The staff picks Michael Graves, 3-0.

    Flyweight Bout: Wilson Reis vs. Hector Sandoval

    Robert Winfree: Wilson Reis, Submission, Round 2
    Jeffrey Harris: Wilson Reis, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Reis, Submission, Round 1
    Jon Butterfield: Wilson Reis, Decision
    The staff picks Wilson Reis, 4-0.

    Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Hamilton vs. Damian Grabowski

    Robert Winfree: Anthony Hamilton, TKO, Round 1
    Jeffrey Harris: Anthony Hamilton, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Grabowski, Decision
    Jon Butterfield: Anthony Hamilton, Decision
    The staff picks Anthony Hamilton, 3-1.

    Welterweight Bout: Ross Pearson vs. Jorge Masvidal

    Robert Winfree: Jorge Masvidal, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Ross Pearson, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Masvidal, Decision
    Jon Butterfield: Jorge Masvidal, Decision
    The staff picks Jorge Masvidal, 3-1.

    Light Heavyweight Bout: Ed Herman vs. Nikita Krylov

    Robert Winfree: Nikita Krylov, Decision
    Jeffrey Harris: Nikita Krylov, TKO, Round 2
    Dan Plunkett: Krylov, TKO, Round 2
    Jon Butterfield: Ed Herman, TKO, Round One
    The staff picks Nikita Krylov, 3-1.


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Note: Minutes before posting this roundtable, reports surfaced that Justin Scoggins was removed from his main-card-opening bout with Ian McCall due to weight cutting issues. As of this writing, the UFC has not announced any plans for a replacement opponent for McCall or a replacement bout on the main card.

    Bantamweight Bout: Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez

    Robert Winfree: I don’t have a whole lot to say about this one, Francisco Rivera was on his way to finding top fighting form not too long ago, then he got eye gouged by Urijah Faber and that seemed to derail all of that possible momentum and now he’s likely fighting for his job. Rivera likes to brawl, he’s got good power in his punches and solid enough takedown defense but he’s slowing down a little as a fighter. Erik Perez was supposed to be a key piece of the UFC’s plan to move more operations into Mexico, but sadly that plan seems to have fizzled a little bit. Perez is a solid all around fighter but he’s not shown to be exceptional in any particular area. Perez is the more technical fighter here, especially when it comes to striking, and I think he’ll be able to out work Rivera over three rounds or possibly grab a submission if Rivera gets rocked or desperate.

    Winner: Erik Perez, Decision

    Jeffrey Harris: At one point it looked like Erik Perez could become a huge contender and Mexican prospect for the bantamweight division. That didn’t really pan out for him after key losses to the likes of Takeya Mizugaki and Bryan Caraway. However, Perez still has a 5-2 record in the UFC, and he’s coming off a win over Taylor Lapilus. So he definitely has the chance to keep his momentum going. Rivera is a tough banger, but he doesn’t win these big, important fights. He did give Urijah Faber a tough battle before an eye poke caused him to lose and get submitted. Perez is fairly well-rounded, and while Rivera has some good striking, I see Perez ultimately dominating this one.

    Winner: Erik Perez, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: Rivera has lost four of his last five, but all four losses were against tough fighters, and he probably should have gotten the nod over Brad Pickett in his most recent fight. He represents a stern test for Perez, a fighter it seemed like UFC was going to groom before the ice-cold Sean Shelby mercilessly threw him in against Takeya Mizugaki and Bryan Caraway. Rivera is easily lulled into a brawl (see his fight with Linker, John) and Perez, who has only been finished twice – both by submission – is a good and durable striker, so this has the potential to be exciting. I see Rivera taking this.

    Winner: Rivera, Decision

    Jon Butterfield: I’m not huge on this fight being on the main card when other bantamweight contender fights are relegated to the prelims on supposedly weaker cards (see: Wineland vs Saenz), but there’s a clear demographic the UFC are hunting for this one and the division could use exposure, so so be it. Rivera’s record in the UFC is 4-4, with 4 of those losses coming in his last 5 fights, but Brad Pickett has real reason to feel fortunate after his split decision win in February. Perez is 5-2, but I figure he’s had an easier ride than Rivera, and has beaten only credible opposition and not even a gatekeeper. While a harsher critic could argue the same of Rivera, that level of competition (Mizugaki, Faber, Lineker and Pickett) on a sustained basis can only engender improvements, and I figure Rivera lands the heavier, more telling shots in an entertaining scrap. I feel he finishes late on.

    Winner: Francisco Rivera, TKO, Round Three

    The staff calls it down the middle, 2-2.


    Welterweight Bout: Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger

    Robert Winfree: Remember years ago when Jake Ellenberger was supposed to be a top shelf welterweight and possibly even a title contender? If you don’t I can’t say I blame you, but trust me that was a thing for a while. Now Ellenberger’s 1-5 in his last six, that one win is over Josh Koscheck, and riding a two fight losing streak. Ellenberger is a powerful wrestler but he doesn’t use that skill all that often, he prefers to try and overwhelm his opponents with strikes but over the last couple of years he’s lost the aggression that made his striking effective. Matt Brown is in a somewhat rough spot as well, he’s 1-3 in his last four fights but those losses are to Robbie Lawler, Johny Hendricks, and Demian Maia, and he’ll need a win here. Brown is a wild and aggressive fighter, he loves to bring the violence and loves to push forward and break his opponent under a constant barrage of blows. I don’t think Ellenberger is in a position to oppose Brown here, I think he’s going to try and brawl with him and get overwhelmed by the pressure and volume that Brown brings to the table.

    Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Round 1

    Jeffrey Harris: Both fighters are in a must-win situation here, but Jake Ellenberger is in that situation more than anyone. He’s 1-5 in his last six fights. His last win was over Josh Koscheck in February 2015. I believe Matt Brown has more than enough to take care of business over the very timid and declining Ellenberger. Ellenberger’s mental game has been very lacking as of late. He’s been slow to engage, and he just doesn’t seem as confident as he used to be after he first joined the UFC roster. Brown will need to avoid the takedowns, but if he can do that and let his hands go, Ellenberger could be facing the unemployment line.

    Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Round 2

    Dan Plunkett: Robert and Jeff have already covered Ellenberger’s fall, but it is remarkable to compare how this match up would have been looked at just a few years ago to how it’s looked at today. A few years ago, Ellenberger, backed by his wrestling and punching power that took out Jake Shields in under a minute, would have been favored. Today, only 31 (four years younger than Brown), he’s almost considered a shot fighter. Certainly, the UFC has done no favors to him by matching him with easy opponents, and Brown is no exception to that. Although Brown is hardly lighting the world on fire at 1-3 in his past four, the results of those fights didn’t lead to a conclusion that he was slipping, but rather those three fighters posed tests he didn’t quite have the ability to pass on those nights. He’s still a formidable opponent, and will likely have his hand raised here.

    Winner: Matt Brown, TKO, Round 2

    Jon Butterfield: Jake Ellenberger is no longer a contender at welterweight, but that could all change if he can turn the tables on Matt Brown. Brown may have lost three of his last four, but nobody of less-than-elite stature has been able to dispatch him, while Ellenberger seems to have been losing to top competition for a long, long time. While lacking the tools to out-strike a technical kickboxer or even an evasive target, Ellenberger nonetheless made his name as a powerful boxer with legitimate takedown defence and that in itself was (for a while) a refreshing change from the likes of GSP and his overtly defensive style. Sadly, when Ellenberger was properly tested his defences haven’t held up at all, giving the impression that the 31 year old is long past his prime. That’s probably not true, and Ellenberger could yet mount a Robbie Lawler-like comeback, but right now Matt Brown is a worrying proposition. Ellenberger can still be a force is serious adjustments are made, but the way he fights is that way that got him here, and that way just isn’t enough any more. Brown will give Ellenberger his moments in a typical fists-and-fury fashion, but Brown is the better rounded, higher level fighter who should be able to find a finish here.

    Winner: Matt Brown, Submission, Round Two

    The staff picks Matt Brown, 4-0.


    Strawweight Bout: Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

    Robert Winfree: This fight likely will determine the next title challenger in the strawweight division. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is unbeaten and is a solid overall striker and fighter, she’s more of a counter fighter though and that will play interestingly with the aggression of Rose Namajunas. Namajunas is mostly a grappler or clinch fighter, striking at distance isn’t really her strength at this point, and she excels in scrambles on the mat. I can see ways for Kowalkiewicz to win this fight, if she can keep it standing and keep it a technical fight while exploiting the offense of Namajunas with counter blows, but I don’t find that to be the most likely outcome. Namajunas should be bringing the pressure and ability to fight pretty much anywhere and I think she’ll be able to get Kowalkiewicz down and use her superior grappling.

    Winner: Rose Namajunas, Submission, Round 2

    Jeffrey Harris: It’s very likely that the winner of this fight will go on to fight Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the women’s strawweight title next. Kowalkiewicz is undefeated, and she won her first two UFC fights, dominating Randa Markos and Heather Jo Clark. “Thug Rose” Namajunas has been on a role as of late. She got back a previous loss in her last fight, defeating the previously unbeaten Tecia Torres. Before that, she submitted the very popular Paige VanZant. Both women are highly skilled. Thug Rose has shown a lot of growth in the past year or so. Kowalkiewicz is very tough, so an upset here would definitely not surprise me. However, if Rose is prepared and shows the aggression she did in her last three fights, I think she will win.

    Winner: Rose Namajunas, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: The “Thug” Rose train stalled in Las Vegas in 2014, but was quickly repaired and regained much of its momentum. Rose is a dynamic fighter, good everywhere, and she’ll give Kowalkiewicz problems.

    Winner: Namajunas, Submission, Round 3

    Jon Butterfield: I actually don’t like Namajunas in this fight. She’s slightly taller and has better reach then Kowalkiewicz, both serious advantages here, and she’s also fought a higher level of competition more regularly – but Kowalkiewicz made to the UFC with some pretty legitimate wins over the likes of Mizuki Inoue and Kalindra Faria, and has a way of wearing down opponents on the feet and keeping fights there. Namajunas has improved a great deal and I understand her favouritism given her power and ability, but she strikes me as less efficient than Kowalkiewicz in a fight where stamina will be a prized asset. The Polish fighter has it in her locker to win here, and beyond Rose a title shot really isn’t far off. I see it round one to Rose, potentially, and two and three to Karolina.

    Winner: Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Decision

    The staff picks Rose Namajunas, 3-1.


    UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley

    Robert Winfree: Tyron Woodley hasn’t fought since January of 2015 when he got a dull split decision victory over Kelvin Gastelum but when a scheduled fight with Johny Hendricks fell through because of medical problems suffered by Hendricks and was able to turn that into this title opportunity. Woodley is a powerful wrestler with a really good punch but if he can’t finish you with one punch, or at least visibly wobble you, he resorts to either takedowns where he holds top position or stalls his opponent out against the fence. Woodley is a very low activity fighter who uses long periods of stalling if he can’t get his opponent out of the fight quickly, but the power he can generate with his punches is impressive and if he can catch Lawler on the chin he could possibly finish him. While Woodley has impressive wrestling, especially his double leg from the outside, Robbie Lawler has developed such a great counter wrestling game I have a hard time visualizing Woodley having prolonged success in that department. Robbie Lawler has been on a massive tear recently, his defensive wrestling has improved to the point where he’s successfully stopped takedowns from great wrestlers like Johny Hendricks or great MMA wrestlers like Rory MacDonald. Lawler’s striking has always been good, his power specifically, and recently he’s been fighting like a man possessed. The biggest knock on Lawler recently has been the hot and cold nature of his fights, he’s taken time off during rounds and has been very content to look for counters or openings to use his offensive tools. While Woodley has top notch wrestling and big power, he’s running into a nightmare match up as Lawler can stop his takedowns and will be packing more firepower and a more technical attack on the feet. Woodley also reacts poorly when he’s tagged, and given the power Lawler brings I think Lawler gets the finish.

    Winner: Robbie Lawler, TKO, Round 4

    Jeffrey Harris: Tyron Woodley is a very good, athletic wrestler and fighter. He has some heavy hands. However, I’ve not seen the tools from him to win this fight and ultimately become champion. Robbie Lawler’s problem is that he tends to be a slow starter. He tends to wait too long to flip his switch, but when he does, he’s one of the meanest and most vicious welterweights on the planet. Woodley is a good fight for him, but ultimately, I see Lawler coming out on top. I think with his game planning and skills, Woodley might even take a round or two, but he won’t be able to get it done. Eventually, Lawler’s switch will be flipped, and Woodley will go down.

    Winner: Robbie Lawler, TKO, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: Two out of Robbie Lawler’s last three fights have gone to a decision, and I felt he lost both of them. Regardless, if you don’t get excited to watch Angry Bob Lawler fight, there’s either something wrong with you or you’re a member of his opponent’s family. This is a close matchup. I believe Tyron Woodley has all the tools to beat Lawler; my biggest hesitance in picking him is that it’s been eighteen months since his last fight, and he didn’t set the world ablaze with that performance. On the other hand, the layoff, caused in part by choice and part by misfortune, wasn’t due to injury, so he’s been training and getting better in that time. Due to Woodley’s layoff and how Lawler’s fighting pattern, I expect a slow start to this one. If the fight lasts to the fifth round, you can be certain Lawler will go berserk, but the power both fighters possess make me question if we’ll make it to that point. Woodley’s wrestling is very good, but Lawler’s defense his among the best in the division. In terms of ability to take a shot, I trust Lawler’s chin more than I do Woodley’s, which makes me lean on the side of the champion.

    Winner: Lawler, TKO, Round 4

    Jon Butterfield: I understand picking Lawler. His performances have caught everybody by surprise since he joined the UFC, and I don’t care who you are, even Lawler’s closest friends would have doubted he’d be the champion midway through 2016 given his mediocre record beyond the Octagon – yet here we are. Tyron Woodley is a good opponent for him if he chooses to stand and study, the point where Lawler literally is at his best. He cannot do that. He won’t do that. Woodley has to come forward and believe in the power behind his strikes, or he has to go back to basics and score a takedown or two (or beast the clinch work at least) to take Lawler out of the first couple of rounds. If he waits, Lawler could easily smoke him, but Lawler’s recent résumé, while impressive, provides perfect material for Woodley to come up with a legitimate strategy. We’ve seen Lawler face great wrestlers, and we’ve seen him come up trumps – but we’ve also seen weaknesses, and while Lawler’s takedown defence is on point, Woodley has to ask the question and he has to test Lawler’s will and stamina. If he does that, he could win.

    Winner: Tyron Woodley, Decision

    The staff picks Robbie Lawler, 3-1.


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