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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson II

October 8, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

WELCOME:
After seven years, the rematch of one of the most brutal knockouts in mixed martial arts history is here, and the stakes are higher than anyone could have guessed. Will Dan Henderson’s career conclude by capturing the UFC gold that has long eluded him, or will Michael Bisping avenge his most stunning defeat? That question will be answered in the main event of UFC 204! In the co-main event, Vitor Belfort takes on Gegard Mousasi. At light heavyweight, Ovince Saint Preux battles Jimi Manuwa. Plus, Stefan Struve fights Daniel Omielanczuk, Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’s 411’s Jack of All Trades, Jeffrey Harris!

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • The new guy, Lorenzo Vasquez III!

    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
    First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
    Lightweight Bout: Lukasz Sajewski vs. Marc Diakiese

    Jeffrey Harris: Lukasz Sajewski
    Robert Winfree: Lukasz Sajewski, Decision
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Marc Diakiese, Decision
    The staff picks Lukasz Sajewski, 2-1.

    Lightweight Bout: Leonardo Santos vs. Adriano Martins

    Jeffrey Harris: Adriano Martins, TKO, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Adriano Martins, TKO, Round 3
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Adriano Martins, TKO, Round 2
    The staff picks Adriano Martins, 3-0.

    Welterweight Bout: Danny Roberts vs. Mike Perry

    Jeffrey Harris: Danny Roberts, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Mike Perry, TKO, Round 2
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Danny Roberts, TKO, Round 3
    The staff picks Danny Roberts, 2-1.

    Welterweight Bout: Leon Edwards vs. Albert Tumenov

    Jeffrey Harris: Albert Tumenov, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Albert Tumenov, TKO, Round 2
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Albert Tumenow, Decision
    The staff picks Albert Tumenov, 3-0.

    Bantamweight Bout: Damian Stasiak vs. Davey Grant

    Jeffrey Harris: Damian Stasiak, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Damian Stasiak, Decision
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Davey Grant, Decision
    The staff picks Damian Stasiak, 2-1.

    Bantamweight Bout: Ian Entwistle vs. Rob Font

    Jeffrey Harris: Rob Font, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Rob Font, TKO, Round 1
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Rob Font, TKO, Round 1
    The staff picks Rob Font, 3-0.

    Bantamweight Bout: Iuri Alcantara vs. Brad Pickett

    Jeffrey Harris Brad Pickett, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Iuri Alcantara, Decision
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Iuri Alcantara, Decision
    The staff picks Iuri Alcantara, 2-1.


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Featherweight Bout: Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane

    Jeffrey Harris: This fight got changed around a number of times on short notice. Russell Doane is now stepping up on short notice ot fight Mirsad Bektic, after there’s been some late injury shuffling. Doane is 0-3, and he likely needs a win here to stay in the UFC, with a 2-3 Octagon record. Obviously, Bektic is the surging prospect and likely pick to win here. The man is undefeated, and he’s been very impressive in the UFC so far with a 3-0 record. Bektic looked really good in his last UFC fight, knocking out Lucas Martins. Credit to Doane stepping up here, but I feel he still gets dominated everywhere.

    Winner: Mirsad Bektic, Decision

    Robert Winfree: It’s nice to see Mirsad Bektic back, I’m pretty high on his abilities but injuries and opponent changes have kept him out of action for over a year now. Russell Doane is on an 0-3 skid and normally fights at bantamweight, and I don’t like his chances here. I was going to pick Bektic against every one of his previous opponents and see no reason to change that now, Bektic is a bit of a beast with really good entries into takedowns, heavy top position, strong ground and pound, and an ever developing striking game. Doane is in for a wold of hurt here and Bektic reminds everyone that he’s very good.

    Winner: Mirsad Bektic, TKO, Round 2

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Bektic is one helluva prospect. He is coming off an ACL injury and I feel this is actually—despite Doane taking this on 4 days notice—a good warm-up fight to welcome the young man back. He is athletic, explosive, fast, and strong. So far he has shown an ability to mix all the facets of game smoothly. He leads with the jab and throws thundering combinations. He also has sound countering ability. His takedowns are explosive and he is heavy on top while applying suffocating pressure and creating openings for heavy ground and pound. Doane is riding a 3-fight losing streak. He is athletic and fast and likes his offense to have volume. He has nice kicking and punching combinations. He seems to have a grasp of takedowns and is aggressive on top. Doane is tough and won’t be an easy out for Bektic. He’ll put up a fight but I expect Bektic to get the win. Bektic should be able to take the fight to the ground and get the stoppage or decision.

    Winner: Mirsad Bektic, TKO, Round 3

    The staff picks Mirsad Bektic, 3-0.


    Heavyweight Bout: Stefan Struve vs. Daniel Omielańczuk

    Jeffrey Harris: I don’t feel great about picking Stefan Struve here. He hasn’t looked particularly great since coming back from a long layoff due to his heart ailment. He’s looked very sloppy with his striking game overall. Not to mention, his striking defense in his MMA career has never been particularly strong. I wouldn’t even consider Omielanczuk elite, but he has won his last three fights, and he did beat Oleksiy Oliynyk. Either someone gets knocked out quickly, or Omielanczuk wins a slow and sloppy heavyweight affair.

    Winner: Daniel Omielańczuk, Decision

    Robert Winfree: Urgh, heavyweights. The days of Stefan Struve as a potential title contender are long gone, despite his huge frame the man rarely fights long or tall and is way to accepting of being put on his back. Daniel Omielanczuk is no world beater, but he has pretty good cardio for a heavyweight and can push a pace that eventually outstrips most of the division even if his overall skill set falls on the mediocre side. Struve has a good submission game but Omielanczuk just spent fifteen minutes with one of the most accomplished grapplers in the division and didn’t get tapped so I imagine he’ll be alright closing distance and taking Struve down then working from top position. I mostly want this one to end quickly, but I’m not exactly hopeful that it will.

    Winner: Daniel Omielanczuk, Decision

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Struve is a veteran who has challenged some of the best and better heavyweights of the division. This includes a win over the current heavyweight champion. Still, he could never clear the hurdle and I doubt he can accomplish that feat these days. Struve is decent off his back and he has some good striking tools at his disposal to include his range. He just hardly reaches in for them. Rather, he usually gets inside and loses the inside game or gets taken down and loses the ground game. Daniel isn’t much of an elite contender, himself. He seems to have a solid gas tank and an awareness of the overall game and its multiple facets. He just isn’t at an elite level. I assume Struve will have trouble as Daniel closes the distance. Either, Daniel grinds this out or he TKOs Struve. Let’s hope for the latter to happen sometime in the first.

    Winner: Daniel Omielanczuk, TKO, Round 1

    The staff picks Daniel Omielańczuk, 3-0.


    Light Heavyweight Bout: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jimi Manuwa

    Jeffrey Harris: Ovince Saint Preux are both decent light heavyweights, and this is a good fight to see where they stack up after their recent losses. OSP lost a one-sided decision earlier this year to Jon Jones. Granted it was a fight where he filled in as a late injury replacement. Manuwa actually hasn’t fought since September of last year at UFC 191, where he was knocked out by Anthony Johnson. Manuwa is probably the better striker of the two. I see OSP winning. While OSP has holes in his game, specifically with his takedown defense and wrestling, I don’t see Manuwa exploiting in his areas. OSP actually has some decent grappling skills himself. Ultimately, I see Saint Preux picking up the win here and giving Manuwa a really bad night.

    Winner: Ovince Saint Preux, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: Ovince Saint Preux is an interesting case study, the man has some skill but some serious holes in his game as well and the window for him to move up and become a truly elite light heavyweight is starting to close. He’s 33 and while his finishing power and athleticism have taken him far, he can’t break through the light heavyweight caste system and has shown himself to be below Ryan Bader’s level. Jimi Manuwa’s only UFC losses are to Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson but his wins aren’t exactly over top competition. Manuwa is a pretty good striker but I feel like he lacks the raw power that Saint Preux has and Saint Preux has good enough grappling to force Manuwa into that area if it becomes necessary.

    Winner: Ovince Saint Preux, Decision

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: OSP and Manuwa are sort-a in the same place. They are destructors. Just not against the top of the heap. For all the potential they have shown they just can’t put it together against higher ranked light heavyweights. But, who’s better? OSP is a rangy fighter with an unorthodox style. He is athletic and explosive but works at a steady and slow pace. Manuwa is also athletic and explosive. He fights a more orthodox style when compared to OSP and likes to pressure. Manuwa is also a good and effective clinch fighter. I’d say OSP handles being hit much better than Manuwa. I’m giving the slight edge to OSP. He is tough and has more experience and I think losing to Jon Jones may have taught him a thing or two. OSP will get the stoppage in the first or early in the second.

    Winner: Ovince Saint Preux, TKO, Round 2

    The staff picks Ovince Saint Preux, 3-0.


    Middleweight Bout: Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi

    Jeffrey Harris: The way I see it, post-TRT Vitor Belfort doesn’t stand a chance in hell of winning this fight. Gegard Mousasi may come up short in most of his biggest fight. But let’s also not forget, he knocked out Dan Henderson, who is fighting for the title on this same card. Mousasi excels in too many areas where Belfort is deficient. He has a better gas tank, cardio and stamina. He has better MMA wrestling, and he has takedowns that will make it a long night for Belfort. Belfort’s always strongest in the first round, but as long as Mousasi takes this into deeper waters, Belfort is toast.

    Winner: Gegard Mousasi, TKO, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: Fun fact: both of these guys have knocked out Dan Henderson in the first round, Belfort has also knocked out Michael Bisping. Vitor Belfort hasn’t looked the same since the banning of TRT, his only win since that treatment was suspended is over Dan Henderson, and his mental weaknesses have started showing themselves again. Belfort is a front runner, but once pushed he tends to crumble. He pulled guard against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in his last fight if you need an example. The only edge Belfort has over Mousasi is in terms of pure power, Mousasi is the more well rounded fighter, the more technical striker, the more technical grappler, and the better conditioned fighter. Mousasi gets Belfort down, passes through his guard, and works him over with strikes from top position.

    Winner: Gegard Mousasi, TKO, Round 1

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: The last time we saw the post-TRT Vitor Belfort he looked like he had no business in octagon. Now, Mousasi is no physical presence like Jacare Souza, but I imagine we’ll see a replay of Vitor vs. Jacare. I’ll give Vitor credit. He will be able to burst on Mousasi for the first round. Soon after, Mousasi will take over and either out strike Belfort or take him down and win via ground and pound or submission. Belfort is a high level jiu jitsu practitioner with explosive and sound striking. Mousasi has a grasp of the striking game and is an experienced and high level submission grappler. But, like I said, Belfort is hardly the phenom he once was. Mousasi just has to survive the initial storm. Belfort goes down in the second round.

    Winner: Gegard Mousasi, Submission, Round 2

    The staff picks Gegard Mousasi, 3-0.


    UFC Middleweight Championship Bout: Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson

    Jeffrey Harris: Now that this fight is actually happening, there’s no way I’m picking against Dan Henderson. Some have criticized this match-up. Some are fine with it. I don’t really care about the criticisms. Dan Hendersons with one of the most hallmark MMA careers of all time, a bonafide future Hall of Famer, has more than earned this honor. He is arguably one of if not the greatest fighters of all time when you look at the accolades. He’s competed in the Olympics. He won a UFC tournament in one night. He’s the only man in MMA history to hold titles in two different weight classes at the same time. The so-called world’s greatest heavyweight ever, Fedor Emelianenko? Henderson knocked him out, at heavyweight. Now at 46 years young, is Henderson a lot slower than he used to be? Yes. Is his legendary chin starting to show some cracks? Also, yes. However, he’s still going to win this fight. Regardless of all those factors going against Dan Henderson, he still has the power of the H-Bomb and knockout power in both his right and left hands. It’s a power Michael Bisping has felt and been very susceptible before. He tends to circle into his opponent’s knockout punches. Michael Bisping is going to rue the day he picked and asked for this rematch with Henderson. He probably should’ve taken the fight with Jacare instead. Henderson’s chin is not what it once was, but Bisping is not a one-hitter quitter. He’s always lacked that one-punch knockout power. If you look at the Rockhold fight, that was more of an anomaly for his career. Bisping rarely finishes an opponent in that fashion. Not to mention, Rockhold didn’t fight smart, with his hands down and his chin wide open. Henderson just needs to land one good punch. Just one. And then in front of all of the Brits, Henderson is going to be declared the new UFC champion on British soil. It’s not a punishment for UFC to host what will be the single greatest moment in the history of this sport. The next UFC middleweight champion is Dan Henderson.

    Winner: Dan Henderson, TKO, Round 3

    Robert Winfree: I hate this fight. I hate that Dan Henderson is jumping over five or six deserving contenders while being 2-3 with those wins coming over Hector Lombard and Tim Boetsch to get this shot. I hate that the UFC is making a blatant cash grab at the expense of athletic integrity. I hate that they gave a title shot to a man who’s said multiple times publicly that he’ll retire with a win. And I really hate that I can see how Dan Henderson wins this fight and does just that. Henderson is a legend of the sport, his resume is littered with wins over all time greats and he’s held titles for every organization he’s fought for except the UFC. He’s also got a grand total of 3 wins in the last three years to go along with six losses over that same time frame and hasn’t won consecutive fights since 2011. Plus if we’re going to talk about Vitor Belfort dropping off after the banning of TRT the same applies to Hendo. All that said, Henderson still has murderous power in his right hand. Unfortunately that’s all he has at this point. Henderson theoretically has power in his left as well, but he never throws it except to set up the right. His chin is at best cracked and at worst shot, his cardio has gone the way of the dodo, and his game plan is essentially plod forward and throw his entire body weight behind a windmill style overhand right. Despite all of that, I can see Bisping trying to crouch behind his shoulders and look to counter without moving his feet and get his head knocked into the fifth row yet again. I think that’s an extremely unlikely outcome, but it remains a possibility. Michael Bisping should win this fight. Bisping doesn’t have prodigious power, but he’s a technical striker and Hendo’s chin is compromised enough at this point that Bisping hurting and finishing him isn’t out of the question. All Bisping has to do to win is move, use a good straight jab, the occasional leg kick, and let Henderson wear himself out in the first round then take over later. Henderson’s striking style at this point is easy to predict, he plods forward and flashes an inside leg kick then throws everything into the right hand. Alternatively he plods forward while bent over at the waist, plants his feet, and looks to engage in what’s known as pitch and catch countering to land the right. All of this is easily avoidable, and Bisping is a smart enough fighter to do so. He stays mobile, stays technical, and finishes a tired Henderson in the second or third round.

    Winner: Michael Bisping, TKO, Round 2

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: As we all know, this is a rematch, only this time it’s for UFC Middleweight Title and one that parades the direction the UFC has decided to pursue. It doesn’t make sense, but we are here, and, it is what it is. Bisping is riding the peak of his career while Henderson is likely to hang up the gloves after this dance. As lucky as people perceive Bisping’s title win to be, he is a much better fighter than he is given credit for; and, his title win was a little more than luck. Sure, Luke Rockhold didn’t take him serious. Bisping, nonetheless, knew there was an opening, followed a plan, and lit Rockhold up. The champion is a sound kickboxer with great takedown defense. His jab is crisp and he follows it nicely with straights. He usually pressures from the outside and likes to throw in volume. Henderson is a far way off from his former self. He is a strong wrestler and clinch fighter but he lately relies on landing the H-bomb and not much else. These days, it is rare to watch Henderson setup his bomb. Instead, he will try to land heavy leather at any cost. He still seems to have a chin but it has been tested and is hardly what it once was. In fact, it has failed him 3-times in his last 6-loses. Having said that, Henderson is not too be taken lightly. When he is on par, he nicely times his counters and has a knack for sneaking in his H-bomb from the inside. Bisping is improved and should be able to stick and move and keep Henderson on the chase. Without a doubt, Bisping is the favorite and it shouldn’t be any other way. However, Henderson will land a few and, my gut tells me the Brit won’t be able to handle those few. Bisping should win, but, Henderson will knock him stiff one more time. I’m going with my gut on this one.

    Winner: Dan Henderson, KO, Round 2

    The staff picks Dan Henderson, 2-1.


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