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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor
WELCOME:
UFC returns to New York for the first time in 21 years and steps into the hallowed halls of Madison Square Garden with a mega card! In the main event, featherweight champion Conor McGregor challenges lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez! Tyron Woodley puts his welterweight title up for grabs against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in the co-main event! To complete the trifecta, Joanna Jędrzejczyk defends the strawweight belt against Karolina Kowalkiewicz! Before that, in a battle of middleweight contenders, New York’s Chris Weidman fights Yoel Romero. At welterweight Kelvin Gastelum takes on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. Plus, Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington, and much more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First two prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Bantamweight Bout: Liz Carmouche vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Jeffrey Harris: Liz Carmouche, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Katlyn Chookagian, Decision
Robert Winfree: Katlyn Chookagian, Decision
The staff picks Katlyn Chookagian, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Jim Miller vs. Thiago Alves
Jeffrey Harris: Jim Miller, Submission, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Thiago Alves, Decision
Robert Winfress: Jim Miller, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Jim Miller, 2-1.
Welterweight Bout: Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad
Jeffrey Harris: Vicente Luque, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Belal Muhammad, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Belal Muhammad, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Belal Muhammad, 2-1.
Middleweight Bout: Rafael Natal vs. Tim Boetsch
Jeffrey Harris: Rafael Natal, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Tim Boetsch, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Rafael Natal, Decision
The staff picks Rafael Natal, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson
Jeffrey Harris: Khabib Nurmagomedov, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Khabib Nurmagomedov, Decision
Robert Winfree: Khabib Nurmagomedov, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Khabib Nurmagomedov, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens
Jeffrey Harris: Frankie Edgar, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Frankie Edgar, Decision
Robert Winfree: Frankie Edgar, Decision
The staff picks Frankie Edgar, 3-0.
THE MAIN CARD:
Bantamweight Bout: Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington
Jeffrey Harris: On paper, I see this match-up favoring Miesha Tate. For all intents and purposes, she should win this fight. Pennington is more of a mid-level journeywoman. She has won her last three fights, but she came into the UFC with a 3-3 record, and then went 2-2 before, trading wins and losses before her most recent winning streak. Granted, if Pennington can keep this standing and land a good shot on Tate, she can make this a bad night for the former champion. However, if Tate gets this out of the first round, I see her controlling and dictating the rest of the fight for a decision win.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Pennington is on a nice 3-fight winning streak. Albeit, she’s isn’t the best, she has been in there with some of the best and caulked up a few lessons on the way despite some losses. She’s improved and she is a gritty fighter—not a cake walk by any means. She lacks a dominate presences in the cage, but her hands are fast enough to connect on the best, and she is tough enough to absorb her opponents strikes while making their output and power seem ineffective. And this is her key. She has a knack for making fighters look levels below their actual level. Her hand speed makes her seem effective, her strength allows her avoid takedowns and work soundly in the clinch or grappling, and her grit allows her to take what her foe can dish out.
Tate, on the other hand, is more polished and considered to be one of best women bantamweights in world. She has experience and is a workhorse. She is a strong wrestler and grappler with a decent takedown game. Her striking is adaptive meaning she’ll adjust to what her opponent is presenting. She mixes things up well and altogether this is why she is one of best. Tate is the better fighter with a bigger tool box. Yet, Pennington is strong and a tough girl and her skills are not to be taken lightly. This fight will be telling of the direction of both women’s careers; either Pennington proves to be more than a journeyman of sorts while Tate’s career takes a downturn or Pennington stays on the same path while Tate re-bounces. With that said, Tate should be able to bounce back here, but not with Pennington making her work hard for the victory.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Decision
Robert Winfree: I hate picking Miesha Tate fights before seeing how she handled the weight cut, because when she struggles to make weight she performs badly even in fights that should go her way. While Raquel Pennington isn’t an easy fight, this is a fight Tate should win. Tate has more experience, has better wrestling and overall grappling, and neither woman is a prodigious striker in terms of technique or power though Tate likely has a slight edge in power while Pennington’s technical striking has been improving recently. Both women are generally grinders, and all things being equal Tate is a little better everywhere. That said, if Tate was lax in her preparation or makes a couple of bad decisions in the cage Pennington could surprise her.
Winner: Miesha Tate, Decision
The staff picks Miesha Tate, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Donald Cerrone
Jeffrey Harris: This is a tough fight, and I can see it going either way. Kelvin Gastelum, and he’s very well rounded, with great wrestling. That could pose some problems for Donald Cerrone. At the same time, I think Cerrone has actually been performing a lot better and way more consistently at welterweight. To be perfectly honest I’m not sure welterweight is not Gastelum’s ideal weight class. He impressed me far more during his time at middleweight. Not only that, he always struggles to make the mark, and he’s missed the weight twice already. Cerrone though just seems more confident and even stronger at welterweight. I could be going out on a limb, but I’m predicting a Cerrone victory.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Cerrone has had a great start in welterweight going 3-0 in the division and all by way of technical knockout or submission. Gastelum has alternated wins and losses in his last four fights. Just when it seems he’s about take it up a level he drops the ball, but then proceeds to raise it back up as he did in his fight and victory against Johny Hendricks. This is a tough fight for “cowboy” who has notoriously done not too well against lefties.
Gastelum is a solid boxer and wrestler who looked improved in his bout against Hendricks. He likes to get things started fast and aggressive and does exceptionally well inside the pocket. His grappling is quick and strong and he is exceptional during scrambles. Cerrone is a strong Muay Thai fighter with great wrestling and submission grappling. He’s looked improved in his use of combinations and his overall movement—head and feet. In addition, he seems to be putting a strong focus on offensive wrestling and gong for takedowns or just mixing things up. This could very well go either way. Cerrone, however, looks to be on a massive roll riding huge momentum. Don’t discount Gastelum, but Cerrone is likely getting the win by decision over a tough as nails opponent.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, Decision
Robert Winfree: Boy have I gone back and forth on this one. Kelvin Gastelum is a really big welterweight, especially through the body, who can generally push a very good pace and has some really excellent scrambling skills. Gastelum has a really diverse striking attack as well, but generally he fights to break you mentally and physically then grabs an opening for the finish. Donald Cerrone has looked exceptional since moving up to welterweight, he’s not been as vulnerable to body shots and his stopping power actually seems to have improved as well. Cerrone will have the general edge on the feet, and while his grappling game is good that’s probably not the arena he wants this fight contested in as Gastelum’s wrestling and scrambling are likely a little better. I can see how Gastelum wins this, but I can see Cerrone winning as well. Cerrone has looked so good recently, I can’t pick against him here though Gastelum winning shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
Winner: Donald Cerrone, Decision
The staff picks Donald Cerrone, 3-0.
Middleweight Bout: Chris Weidman vs. Yoel Romero
Jeffrey Harris: This is a very tough and interesting fight for the middleweight division. For cardio and stamina, I’ve got to give the edge to Weidman. It’s been an issue for Romero in the past, especially due to all that muscle he has packed on his frame. Romero has great, elite-level wrestling, and he does pack some significant knockout power. Weidman also has great wrestling, and he’s well-rounded as well. For Weidman, the intangible factor is all the recent injuries he’s suffered, which have significantly piled up over the course of his career. Weidman has good aggression, but sometimes he tends to just barrel forward with bad defense and put himself in dangerous spots. I can see this fight going multiple ways, but I’m leaning toward Weidman getting the job done here.
Winner: Chris Weidman, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: This is a match between two wrestling powerhouses. Both, Weidman and Romero are exceptional and elite wrestlers. Both can strike, too. While, we can give Weidman the edge towards technicality or really, volume, Romero takes it in sheer power, dynamics, and explosiveness. But let us see if that holds true after the whole doping and USADA fiasco Romero just got through. Nonetheless, despite his wrestling prowess, Romero likes to keep the fight standing. He likes to stay on his toes and feint while looking for the perfect opportunity to explode and land power combinations or a dynamic strike. And that is the jest of his entire MMA game. But it works! This is in great part due to his athleticism, explosiveness, strength, and power. His one caveat, however, is the gas empties fairly quickly and it’s gave him some controversial wins—Tim Kennedy and Jacare Souza come to mind.
Weidman likes to employ his wrestling much more. He likes to take his opponents down and maul them with heavy top/head control and ground and pound. He is a superb submission grappler and will threaten with one if it presents it self. On the feet, he is a fundamental striker who moves around well and cuts the cage nicely. And he doesn’t do too badly in the clinch. Mostly, he’ll look to cut the cages and throw combinations or stick with a one two has he walks down his foe. Currently, he is working with one of the best striking coaches in the business, Mark Henry. We should expect much improvement. Romero is a dangerous fight for any middleweight but I think Weidman is the favorite to win; at least this is my opinion. Romero will look for his opportunities to throw the big one or wild combinations and that will cost him. Weidman will press as Romero dances around and he will land combinations. Before you know it, Romero will be drained and Weidman will take over and get the decision or maybe even find the finish. But you also have to keep in the back of your mind that Weidman gets hit and this could be a bad thing against Romero
Winner: Chris Weidman, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: This is another really competitive fight on this card, this one likely crowns the next middleweight challenger since the Rockhold vs. Souza fight fell through. Chris Weidman should rank as one of the better middleweights ever, not just because he beat Anderson Silva but because of his skill set. Weidman is a tremendous grappler and surprisingly effective striker, particularly with his movement. Weidman is one of the best cage cutters in the sport, he effectively out maneuvered Lyoto Machida in their fight, and is one of the finer pressure fighters in the division. Weidman also has an exemplary top game, he works good strikes and passes from that position. Unfortunately Weidman has struggled to stay healthy, the man pulled out of the same number of title fights as Jose Aldo in a fraction of the time. Yoel Romero has been on a pretty big roll lately, never having lost in the UFC and finishing all but two of those wins. Romero has serious power, he knocked Lyoto Machida out cold and nearly finished Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza with a spinning back fist in their fight, and some of the best wrestling credentials in the division. The big question mark around Romero is his conditioning, he’s visibly faded in the past especially when fighting at the pace of his opponent rather than his own. I feel like if Romero wins it’ll be in the first round, though a controversial split decision isn’t out of the question either, and Weidman has proven himself quite durable. It took a prolonged barrage of blows from Luke Rockhold to finally get Weidman out of there and no one else has really come close. I’m done being shocked by the success of Romero but I’m leaning Weidman here.
Winner: Chris Weidman, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Chris Weidman, 3-0.
UFC Strawweight Championship Bout: Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jeffrey Harris: This very well could be the toughest fight of Joanna Champion’s career. Kowalkiewicz is a very dangerous fighter with an equally dangerous level of striking that could make her a significantly dangerous matchup for Jędrzejczyk. Not only that, Kowalkiewicz is undefeated in MMA and the UFC, but Joanna Champion has beaten undefeated opponents before. Jędrzejczyk actually has a slight height and reach advantage here. I think her experience in five-round wars will ultimately win her the day. Jędrzejczyk has shown some vulnerability in her fights. Claudia Gadelha and Valerie Letourneau were both successful in winning early rounds against her. I think though Jędrzejczyk makes up for that with her ability to make adjustments. Not just that, she has tremendous movement, footwork and head movement. She knows how to fight at range, stuff takedowns, and how to throw great combinations. I think while it could be a tough and back-and-forth fight, Jędrzejczyk eventually wins a five-round decision.
Winner: Joanna “Champion” Jędrzejczyk, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Well, up next for Joanna Champion is the rising, Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Let’s get down to it. Karolina likely won’t be Joanna’s toughest test to date, but she can not be overlooked; especially, when you consider many MMA champions fall in the least expected ways to the least expected person. She’s proven to be tough and capable of eating some punishment well holding strong stamina. This will be a good attribute to have against an unrelenting, crisp, and sharp Joanna. Karolina works well from the outside and in the clinch. From the outside, she maintains movement while looking to land heavy kicks and straight punches. In the clinch, she is strong, grinding, and lands knees and elbows with some dirty boxing.
The champ is a Muay Thai fighter—former Muay Thai champion—and has adapted well to MMA with an ever improving game. Like her foe, Joanna is an excellent distance fighter with a brutal clinch game. She is accurate and has a stinging jab, follows up with nice straights, or combinations. Her combinations come fast and she closes the distance to land them well. In the clinch, she hits combinations just as effective but she also has knees and elbows of her own that do damage. Keep in mind that she is high level and is very likely the best striker in the division—levels above most if not all. While, Karolina and the champ may share similarities, Joanna is far more superior. And still, she continues to improve and develop a well-rounded game. Her takedown defense is top notch. Her movement is improving and her cardio is almost a non-factor. All in all, Joanna can keep the fight where she wants it but if thing goes south she will not be fazed. She is tough, has heart, and a true champion’s mindset. Karolina may make this a fight but I see Joanna getting a TKO in the 3rd or 4th round.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: The first of three title fights tonight, this one has a few interesting lines of in cage conflict. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a striker by trade and hasn’t looked tremendous during her UFC time, but has remained undefeated as a professional. Kowalkiewicz has a good sniping style at distance, though she tends to square up too often and get hit with counters when trying to engage, the most impressive element of her game shown thus far has been the clinch. The clinch is where she turned things around against Rose Namajunas and is where she’ll be on the closest to even terms with the champion during this fight. Neither woman has shown tremendous grappling skills thus far so that’s likely to be something of a non-factor. Joanna Jedrzejczyk has the best striking in the division, has proven incredibly difficult to take down and harder to keep down. At range Jedrzejczyk will essentially have her way here, Kowalkiewicz doesn’t have the combinations that Jedrzejczyk does and has proven hittable. Again, the clinch will be the most telling element of this fight as both women bring elbows and knees from there with evil intentions. This is going to be a very tough fight, both women bring the violence, but I feel that everywhere Kowalkiewicz is good Jedrzejczyk is better.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Decision
The staff picks Joanna Jędrzejczyk, 3-0.
UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson
Jeffrey Harris: There are a lot of interesting factors here. Tyron Woodley is very athletic. He has great wrestling, and he has very dangerous one-hit knockout power. Meanwhile, Stephen Thompson has captured the hearts and minds with his dynamic karate style and an arsenal that typically includes some impressive kicks. He’s improved by leaps and bounds over his UFC career, especially his takedown defense. He knocked out former champion Johny Hendricks, something Tyron Woodley never had to do in order to gain his title shot against Robbie Lawler. He also completely shut down Rory MacDonald, who had absolutely nothing to supply against Wonderboy. If I am Woodley, I would want to keep the fight close, push the pace and the aggression. He should try to at least mix in some takedowns. When Thompson finds his range and rhythm, that’s when he’s most dangerous. Woodley does have one hit knockout power, but he doesn’t have world-class boxing or striking either. I could see Woodley grinding out a decision, or even ending the fight with one well-placed shot. My other issue with Woodley is that he always seems to have issues with having hit and miss performances. Sometimes he looks very gun shy and has trouble pulling the trigger. However, Thompson generally has done very well against MMA wrestlers as of late, at least a lot better than Carlos Condit. Tough fight, but I’m predicting a win for Thompson here.
Winner: Stephen Thompson, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: What a clash of styles we have here—Woodley, a power house wrestler who packs a tremendous punch, looking to defend his title against Thompson, the new era karate kid. Thompson has worked his way to this title tilt in impressive fashion scoring two dramatic first round finishes over former champion, Johny Hendricks, and Jake Ellenberger, and upsetting former title challenger, Rory Macdonald. I’ll tell what, he’s outclassed some great fighters. Thompson has been steadily improving since his loss to Matt Brown. He has improved his distance control and takedown defense while shaping his game to suit mixed martial arts. Thompson likes to keep the distance wide and threaten with kicks to keep his foe at distance and away from takedown range. He times counters excellent and combined with his speed he is accurate and deadly as all his opponents can attest too. His movement and karate style help him keep distance and allows him to range kicks and punches very accurately. At the moment, in the welterweight division, you can not top Thompson’s distance control, counters, and timing. He is simply the best at it.
Woodley is a power wrestler with one-punch knockout power. He is an athletic monster—very explosive, strong, dynamic, and fast. This athletic prowess allows him to get away with having a narrow game. Though, he’s improved offensively and defense, he lacks a well-rounded game and usually relies on his athletic abilities to wrestle through his opponent or end their night with heavy leather. Nonetheless, it has been enough for him to beat some top dogs and finally win a gold strap. But, when it comes down to it, Woodley doesn’t have the game to hold onto the belt for too long; and, Thompson is likely the man to take it from him. Woodley will always have that one punch advantage, but Thompson has the game to stifle the champ. Thompson has more tools and he is learning how to put it altogether. His distance control and timing will win him the fight, either by an uneventful decision or another spectacular finish. It depends on whether Woodley decides to explode into the inside or play from the outside after not getting a takedown. I think we’ll get the Woodley we saw at UFC 174 against Rory MacDonald.
Winner: Stephen Thompson, Decision.
Robert Winfree: This fight really goes one of two ways, either Tyron Woodley is able to find the range on his blast double leg and wet blankets his way to a win or Stephen Thompson picks him apart on the outside and finally cracks his chin. Woodley has power to spare, but he also has a grand total of two set ups for his right hand. He either stutter steps forward faking a left then lands the right, as he did against Robbie Lawler and Jay Heiron, or fades backwards then plants his rear foot and launches the right hand counter as his opponent comes forward, as he did against Carlos Condit and Josh Koscheck. For that to work effectively his opponent needs to either not know how to avoid his telegraphed forward motion or over commit to their work against the fence and leave themselves open for that counter. I have a hard time imagining a striker of Thompson’s credentials and experience falling for either tactic, if Woodley backs up he’s not going to rush in with his chin forward he’s going to continue to snipe him with kicks then fade that counter and land one of his own. If Woodley moves forward he’s going to slip the right and counter with a hard two one combination, Thompson used that method to tremendous success against Robert Whittaker, Patrick Cote, and Johny Hendricks. If Woodley tries to go full wrestler there are some questions, Thompson has developed very good takedown defense but he’s also not faced a wrestler with the kind of power double leg that Woodley possesses and stopping that takedown is very different from stopping the single leg of Hendricks against the fence. Thompson has never fought more than three rounds so his cardio is a bit of a question mark, but the last time Woodley went more than 3 he gassed a bit and got knocked out by Nate Marquardt. There are specifics of this match up that I feel favor Thompson a little too heavily, he knows how to keep and fight at distance, he moves much better than Woodley, and his use of lead leg kicks and good defensive posture will keep Woodley at bay until he lands something that rocks him. I’ve been on the Stephen Thompson train too long to get off now.
Winner: Stephen Thompson, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Stephen Thompson, 3-0.
UFC Lightweight Championship Bout: Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor
Jeffrey Harris: In the past, I’ve picked against Conor McGregor, and that’s bit me back big time. However, I was one of the few people who correctly predicted Nate Diaz would win in their first fight. For this fight, I’m picking Eddie Alvarez. McGregor has insulted Alvarez by calling him a stocky wrestler. That might be true, but that’s a style that could potentially give McGregor problems all night long. Alvarez’s main issue is that he tends to throw caution into the wind sometimes with his fights, and he will just abandon his defense and stand and bang with guys. However, McGregor sometimes fights far too much with his wide open, ripe for the punching. He was able to get away with that at featherweight when he was fighting smaller opponents, and McGregor tended to be the bigger guy. Alvarez does have holes in his game, but I just don’t see McGregor exploiting them. Everyone is already expecting McGregor to win two titles in two weight classes like it’s an absolute certainty. I won’t say it will never happen in history. But it’s not happening on the night of November 12 at the Madison Square Garden. Alvarez wins.
Winner: Eddie Alvarez, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: And the Conor McGregor show continues. This time he is stepping up to what could end up as the biggest challenge of his career as he goes after the lightweight strap. Conor must be given credit where credit is due. He stopped Jose Aldo in 13-seconds and very narrowly avenged his loss to lightweight—yes lightweight not welterweight—Nate Diaz. Eddie Alvarez is looking to defend his title for the first time while silencing the loudest mouth in MMA history.
The jest of it: Conor McGregor also brings in a sort of karate base striking game to the table. For MMA, his boxing is fluid and he ties it in nicely with a kicking game geared at having his foes run into his big left hand. He is rangy, pressures from range, has great timing, has an excellent eye for counters, and heavy duty power. He showed marked improvement in his last fight with Diaz. He was somewhat more patient and his clinch game was there and decent for someone losing steam. Most importantly, he seems to have adjusted mentally to adversity while improving his conditioning.
Alvarez is a gritty fighter who never lets up but continues to dig deeper win or lose. He is experienced and has seen it all. Alvarez is a boxer-puncher at best and a wrestler. He throws fast combinations in the pocket and he throws then with the intent to hurt. He can grind you in the clinch with pressure, takedown threats, and dirty boxing. He can take opponents down with a double or from the single leg. On top, his pressure is heavy and controlling. He’ll land ground and pound and if the submission presents itself he will dive on it.
With that said, both McGregor and Alvarez have flaws. McGregor, though accurate and deadly with sound movement, leaves himself open to be hit. He can take a punch as long as the tank has gas, but against a fighter like Alvarez with speed, pressure, and aggression it could backfire. On the other end, Alvarez is extremely hittable and is always willing to brawl. Not good against a counter puncher with beautiful timing like McGregor. McGregor lacks endurance and stamina and Alvarez lacks reach and head movement and gets hit often too early.
To win, McGregor needs to be poise and patient while keeping the distance at his range. Then he will pick Alvarez apart and maybe find the finish. But he has to be ready to stop the pressure and takedowns. Alvarez needs to pressure with combinations while pushing McGregor into the cage. From there it’s all dirty boxing and takedown-attempts/takedowns. Much like he did with Anthony Pettis. But, this time around he needs to avoid getting hit so often. Finally, he can not let Conor control the distance. While some people are saying Alvarez should be able to undo McGregor, it is not this easy. But, there is an x-factor that might play a role. McGregor is a little over 2-month removed from his grueling fight with Nate Diaz.
To clarify, that is 2-months and about 3-weeks. You have to questions whether or not the turn around is too soon after a grueling affair. Maybe, he’s not over-training like before, but is he recovered from the fight with Nate. Will that affect his conditioning or ability to absorb punishment? His body might tell him he is good, but it could quickly decide it’s not once Alvarez pounces. Ultimately, I don’t like that Alvarez takes the kind of punishment he does early in his fights. I’m not sure I can say Alvarez has fought a fighter with the timing and as accurate as Conor, and with Conor’s accuracy I can see Alvarez getting tagged on the button one too many times. Alvarez needs to survive round 1 and half of round 2 or get the finish early. He has to make Conor work, while Conor just has to be Conor for a round and half and hope he hurts Eddie enough to stop him or keep out of the fight for five rounds. I think this is a toss-up but McGregor should be the favorite. McGregor by first-round TKO, but I am hoping Alvarez proves me wrong and gets it done.
Winner: Conor McGregor, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Well this is it, McGregor’s chance at UFC history. I’ve gone back and forth on this one as well, there are just so many possible lines of conflict that favor one man or the other. McGregor fights well at distance using low line side kicks to the leg or snap kicks to the belly along with the occasional over reaching left. McGregor’s game plans are pretty simple, he either probes at distance until he hurts you and the finishes you with a combination or a single left a la his win over Chad Mendes or he annoys you into rushing into his hanging left hook counter just like Jose Aldo did. Eddie Alvarez is primarily a brawler, but that title doesn’t do his technical ability the appropriate justice. Alvarez also has some really good movement if he’s against the fence, he constantly baited and switched Michael Chandler in their fights allowing him to circle back to the center relatively unscathed. Cardio in this fight favors Alvarez, who’s conditioning isn’t otherworldly like say Tony Ferguson, but he’s proven he can fight five hard rounds at a consistent pace while McGregor has struggled at times. If McGregor fades in rounds 3 and 4 against Alvarez the same way he did against Nate Diaz he’ll be in serious trouble as Alvarez wont plod after him and try to goad him into a brawl, he’ll cut the cage and punish him with pressure and takedowns in addition to flurrying hard if he thinks McGregor is hurt. Neither man has much in the way of defense, McGregor constantly lives on his chin and Alvarez has a history of getting hit. Most troubling to me during tape study was how weak Alvarez is to a straight left, both RDA and Anthony Pettis landed that punch consistently and I think it’s safe to say McGregor hits harder than either of those two gentlemen. I can see ways for both guys to win, if Eddie makes this an ugly dogfight that goes long or a prolonged wrestling match he probably wins, but McGregor has substantial power and accuracy against a man with proven defensive deficiencies. I’m leaning Mcgregor here, but unless there’s a flying gogoplata in this fight nothing is going to really surprise me.
Winner: Conor McGregor, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Conor McGregor, 2-1.
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