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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz
WELCOME:
After years of anticipation spoiled by injuries, Dominick Cruz finally returns to the octagon to fight for the bantamweight title! In the main event of UFC Fight Night from Boston, Cruz looks to regain his championship when he battles TJ Dillashaw! In the co-main event, former lightweight champion looks to rebound against the always exciting Eddie Alvarez! At heavyweight, Travis Browne fights Matt Mitrione. Plus, Ross Pearson faces Francisco Trinaldo, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Light Heavyweight Bout: Francimar Barroso vs. Elvis Mutapcic
Bantamweight Bout: Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O’Connell
Featherweight Bout: Charles Rosa vs. Kyle Bochniak
Lightweight Bout: Paul Felder vs. Daron Cruickshank
Fox Sports 1
Featherweight Bout: Maximo Blanco vs. Luke Sanders
Lightweight Bout: Chris Wade vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Light Heavyweight Bout: Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman
Welterweight Bout: Patrick Cote vs. Ben Saunders
THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Jeffrey Harris: Believe it or not, Francisco Trinaldo is an underrated, battle-tested veteran for the UFC. He has a winning record in the Octagon of 8-3. Not only that, he’s on a four-fight winning streak. Combine that with his age at 37, he’s done pretty well for himself. Lightweight is the most stacked division, so you have a lot of talented players who are not ranked like Trinaldo, and also Pearson. Pearson has been trading wins and losses as of late. He’s been having trouble as a slow starter. He is coming off a win over Paul Felder, so a win here finally puts him on a two-fight winning streak. If Trinaldo wins here, this would be pretty big for his career as well. Pearson is probably the more polished striker of the two, and I would say he’s more powerful. I think this will be a tough fight, but Pearson will edge it out.
Winner: Ross Pearson, Decision
Robert Winfree: This isn’t a bad lightweight fight, both guys have winning UFC records and while Trinaldo might be relatively unknown he’s riding a four fight winning streak and boasts a solid skill set. Ross Pearson has been with the UFC for a while and seems to be settling into 50/50 territory, but he’s got solid boxing technique and a good high volume style offense. This should be a back and forth fight, but I see Pearson’s volume and high pressure style overwhelming Trinaldo en route to a decision.
Winner: Ross Pearson, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Pearson is better on the feet and proven against better competition, but he’s also inconsistent. Massaranduba is good all-around and a big lightweight. I’m leaning toward Pearson outlast the Brazilian.
Winner: Pearson, Decision
The staff picks Ross Pearson, 3-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione
Jeffrey Harris: All personal issues aside, I think Travis Browne’s skills have seen a regression since he moved his training camp to Glendale Fight Club and coach Edmond Tarverdyan. His defense and technique have both looked a lot sloppier and more open than they were in the past. Matt Mitrione has a lot of holes in his game, but he is a fast and heavy hitter. He has fairly decent footwork and movement. That could give Browne trouble. My main hope here is that the fight ends quickly in the first round. While I am not crazy about the changes Browne has implemented in his game, I still think he is the better overall fighter. Not only that, Mitrione has always had terrible takedown and submission defense. So I’m picking Browne here.
Winner: Travis Browne, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: If you told me 18 months ago that I’d have to pause and actually think about picking a winner in this match I would have laughed at you, but Travis Browne’s skills have altered since changing camps and not necessarily for the better. His offense has lost technique while he’s tried to compensate with raw aggression, and the results have been very mixed. Matt Mitrione will never be truly top shelf talent but he’s got relatively decent movement for a heavyweight, good fundamental technique with his kicking game and hits relatively hard. I still think Browne should win here, but with the way he’s been fighting lately if I wanted to bet on an underdog who had a better than average chance at paying out Mitrione is the guy to make that bet on.
Winner: Travis Browne, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Mitrione is a solid fighter. He moves well for a fighter his size and has serious power that isn’t often recognized. Browne was last knocked out by Andrei Arlovski, which created questions about his move to train at Glendale Fight Club. I wouldn’t be surprised if this came down to a first-round gunfight. In that case, it’s anyone’s guess who will come out on top. I lean toward Browne.
Winner: Browne, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Travis Browne, 3-0.
Lightweight Bout: Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez
Jeffrey Harris: This is a really strong lightweight match-up between the former UFC champion and the former Bellator champion. Both fighters are good strikers. Alvarez has the better boxing, and he has very good footwork. However, he also isn’t afraid of throwing caution into the wind and just banging it out. We’ve seen the blueprint to defeat Pettis. To beat Pettis, you need to constantly pressure him and not give him a second to breathe or find his rhythm. Alvarez is a good fighter, but I don’t see him giving Pettis the type of problems that Rafael dos Anjos used in his game plan for their title fight. I think this will be a tough fight, but Pettis will edge it out.
Winner: Anthony Pettis, Decision
Robert Winfree: Here’s a fun lightweight fight. Anthony Pettis is coming off of losing the lightweight title and a subsequent injury but he has one of the most dynamic striking games in the sport, an active guard, and the ability to transition fluidly from striking to grappling if necessary. Eddie Alvarez has a good boxing game and underrated wrestling, if he’s going to win he needs to pressure Pettis against the fence, land a few hard punches and secure takedowns. Easy enough on paper but extremely difficult in execution, I’m not sure Alvarez has the pressure necessary or the movement to corral Pettis like Rafael dos Anjos did. This isn’t a gimme for Pettis by any stretch of the imagination, but I think Alvarez might get a little too comfortable at distance then make a mistake trying to get in close.
Winner: Anthony Pettis, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Oh boy. This is gonna be a good one. Pettis is tremendous. He’s quick, creative, and really good at everything. Alvarez is tenacious, always gets up after being knocked down, and is an underrated wrestler. I expect Alvarez to pressure Pettis, put him against the cage and try to do some damage. It could work. However, I can’t ignore that Alvarez gets tagged and knocked down too often, and has been in too many wars. I think this will be another war, with Pettis emerging victorious.
Winner: Pettis, KO, Round 3
The staff picks Anthony Pettis, 3-0.
UFC Bantamweight Championship Bout: TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz
Jeffrey Harris: I am going all in on TJ “Thrillashaw” Dillashaw here. Dominick Cruz was a great champion. However, this will be his first fight after a near year-and-a-half layoff. He’s going straight into a five-round title fight with the champion. I just don’t see this going well for Cruz. I thought Cruz had a very unique and effective style for MMA, and he utilized that style well. However, it was never a style that I thought was unbeatable. It was a style where Cruz always left openings for his opponents to land strikes and do some damage. Even in the second fight with Faber and Cruz, Faber left Cruz off the hook on numerous occasions. In the second fight with Benavidez and Cruz, Benavidez actually managed to land on Cruz in the pocket and do quite a bit of damage to his face. However, the other problem for Cruz is that he’s never faced an opponent as dangerous as Thrillashaw. Takeya Mizugaki is a tough opponent. That was a good win for Cruz, especially after such a long layoff. But look at Takeya Mizugaki’s record. Between his 10 ZUFFA wins, the only time Mizugaki has ever finished an opponent was against Cole Escovedo in 2011. Mizugaki is not a finisher, and he’s not a dangerous opponent on the level of someone like Dillashaw. Not only that, Thrillashaw has very dangerous kicks that Cruz will have to watch out for. At the end of this, TJ Thrillashaw will remain the bantamweight champion, and he will finally have a win over the former champion who never actually lost his belt.
Winner: TJ “Thrillashaw” Dillashaw, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: From a technical perspective this is a dream fight. While Dillashaw may have taken some elements of Cruz’s style he’s also adapted them to his own skills and has moved beyond being “Cruz lite”. Dillashaw is a dangerous and ambidextrous striker, he excels at stringing together long combinations and switching his stance while doing so. Dillashaw does his best work in the pocket where the constantly switching angles and high volume can keep his opponent off balance and open up kicks for him as they try to disengage. Dillashaw also has a solid wrestling game, he’s not used it offensively as much lately but it’s still there. Cruz has the better movement of the two and prefers to strike from angles at range rather than trade in close, and Cruz excels at mixing wrestling with his striking more than almost anyone else in the UFC. This fight is going to be determined by distance, if Dillashaw can corral Cruz and work in close he’s got more than enough skill to win but if this fight is contested at range and with Cruz dictating what transpires based on his movement and angles then I don’t like Dillashaw’s chances. I’m leaning slightly towards Cruz here, Dillashaw hasn’t had to fight a mobile fighter before and certainly not one as mobile as Cruz is but it’s by the narrowest of margins and Dillashaw winning shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Winner: Dominick Cruz, Decision
Dan Plunkett: I can’t wait for this fight. Dillashaw has been fantastic for the past couple of years. Cruz’s inactivity gives me caution, and is ultimately the reason I can’t pick him here. He blew through Mizugaki, but that was a year and an ACL ago. It’s tough to pick against Dillashaw here.
Winner: Dillashaw, Decision
The staff picks TJ Dillashaw, 2-1.
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