mma / Columns
411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
WELCOME:
The biggest week in UFC history kicks off Thursday night on Fight Pass with the lightweight title on the line! UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos defends his belt against former Bellator titlist Eddie Alvarez! Heavy-handed heavyweights collide in the co-main event as Roy Nelson fights Derrick Lewis. Plus, Alan Jouban faces Belal Muhammad, Joseph Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Welterweight Bout: Vincente Luque vs. Alvaro Herrera
Bantamweight Bout: Marco Beltran vs. Reginaldo Vieira
Lightweight Bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Lukasz Sajewski
Bantamweight Bout: Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders
Bantamweight Bout: Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Bantamweight Bout: Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Lightweight Bout: John Makdessi vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Welterweight Bout: Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina
THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Joseph Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Jeffrey Harris: Joseph Duffy, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Joseph Duffy, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: Joseph Duffy, TKO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: Joseph Duffy, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Duffy, Decision
The staff picks Joseph Duffy, 5-0.
Welterweight Bout: Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
Jeffrey Harris: Alan Jouban, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Alan Jouban, Decision
Robert Winfree: Alan Jouban, TKO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: Belal Muhammad, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Muhammad, Decision
The staff picks Alan Jouban, 3-2.
Heavyweight Bout: Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
Jeffrey Harris: Interesting heavyweight clash here. Roy Nelson I would say is probably more technically sound and well-rounded than Derrick Lewis. However, Nelson doesn’t always fight smart and doesn’t take his training very seriously. Lewis hits very hard and can be a bit sloppy at times, but he generally does a good job of taking fights where he needs them. Even in fights where he’s been taken to deeper waters, he’s found a way to come out on top. I’m picking Lewis here because although Nelson’s technique is probably more refined, I think Lewis will eventually hurt Nelson with a big punch and then ground and pound him out.
Winner: Derrick Lewis, TKO, Round 2
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Roy Nelson will try to make it two in a row after dropping three straight to heavyweights ranked in the top ten. The “Black Beast” will not be denied, however. Derrick Lewis looked good in his last bout and is obviously trying to improve his game. He has knock out power and likes to come in fast and heavy, throwing his weight into his strikes. He also throws some decent combinations. It’s important to note, Lewis is still in development and shows many defense deficiencies. He is young and a prospect to keep our eye on. Nelson is a veteran and can be crafty with his jab and footwork; however, he seems to rely on landing that right hand with all he’s got too often. And, in my opinion he takes too many shots far too often. It’s a shame as he is far more gifted than he shows. Nelson is well-round but, more often than not, you wouldn’t know it. This is a fight Nelson can win but he won’t. Lewis will come in aggressively and Nelson will stand and trade making this a dirty fight that favors the bigger, stronger, and faster fighter. In fact, I’m calling to Lewis to knockout “Big Country” in the first.
Winner: Derrick Lewis, KO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: There isn’t a whole lot to say about this fight, both men hit hard and both are happy to engage in a brawl being confident in their power and chin. Roy Nelson is a very beatable fighter if you don’t accommodate what he does well, and at the moment all he likes to do is plod forward and wing a right hand at your face. Derek Lewis will allow Nelson to do that, they’ll engage a little bit, then one of them will fall over and at this point I feel slightly more confident saying that Lewis falls before Nelson does.
Winner: Roy Nelson, KO, Round 1
Jon Butterfield: This is the fight Derrick Lewis wanted after disposing of Gabriel Gonzaga, and the suggestion seemed to get the thumbs up from Dana straight away, so here we are. Nelson is probably a step up from Gonzaga at this point, but not massively so, having required a step down in competition to pick up a win against Jared Rosholt to holt a three fight slide. Nelson gets more credit than he deserves in my opinion as a pretty average fighter who nonetheless poses problems with his ferocious knock out power and rarely used ground game. Nelson just doesn’t have the tools to ground Lewis, in my opinion, though that would be a pretty wise strategy for a man whose chin was finally cracked by the monstrous Mark Hunt and who has lost almost every decision he’s gone to in the UFC. Sufficed to say, if a fight goes the distance Nelson is generally found wanting having been out-struck almost every time he hasn’t landed his power punches early. Rosholt may prove the exception to that rule, but I hardly think Lewis will. I’m thinking Lewis wins by decision, though I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he picked up a finish against the ultra-durable Nelson. This is a perfectly pitched fight for ‘The Black Beast’, and should serve to enhance his growing reputation.
Winner: Derrick Lewis, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This might be one of those fights where you can feel the punches through the TV. That is to say, these two hit quite hard. Although he’s fighting a younger, faster, larger, and more powerful opponent, Nelson, 40, isn’t being put out to pasture here. He is the more technically sound fighter both standing and on the ground, and that, along with an unhealthily strong chin, could make the difference here. However, in this case, I have to lean toward the physical advantages that Lewis possesses.
Winner: Lewis, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Derrick Lewis, 4-1.
UFC Lightweight Championship Bout: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
Jeffrey Harris: I’m fine with Eddie Alvarez getting this title fight, but he’s not shown me enough to make me truly believe hec an beat out Rafael dos Anjos who has ascended to another level since becoming a top lightweight and now lightweight champion. I don’t see Alvarez being able to push the pace and do what he did to Anthony Pettis with Rafael dos Anjos. Alvarez might have better boxing than Dos Anjos, but I think RDA is better everywhere else. Dos Anjos dominates this one and picks up another title defense.
Winner: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: RDA has been on an absolute tear since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He bested Jason high and proceeded to layout Benson Henderson and followed that up by dominating Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis to capture the lightweight strap. And then, he immediately shut out Donald Cerrone in his first title defense. Eddie Alvarez, a solid and conditioned lightweight who can get gritty if need be, has ridden a less spectacular path to a lightweight title shot. Since making his debut and losing against Donald Cerrone, Alvarez has brought home two spilt-decision wins—one over Gilbert Melendez and another over the former champ, Anthony Pettis. Nonetheless, to his credit, Alvarez has fought a who’s who of the best around the globe and found great success. RDA will be another name he can add to the checklist win or lose.
It’ll be interest to see if the former Bellator MMA Lightweight Champion can use his wrestling to push RDA against the cage, clinch, and work for takedowns. Alvarez is a sound boxer in MMA terms. His punches hard and quick and has decent head movement. His movement is light and fast and he does well throwing nice crisp jabs before hitting the button on a heavy right. He can also be effective when he throws combinations to the head and body. With that said he does need work with his counters and sometimes seems to wait to long before opening up in addition in having a weakness for planting and trading barbs. What makes Alvarez so good, in my opinion, is his wrestling. Defensively he great and does well in transitions/scrambles. He is no wizard with takedowns but his grit, strength, and determination help him get it done. Form the top he utilizes a heavy control game to grind out opponents. RDA is as well-rounded as they come. He is first and foremost, a pressure fighter. He comes in aggressive and overwhelms his opponents pushing them back into the fence. He likes to keep his foes backpedaling and against the fence by throwing strikes to the outside. He keeps the distance close and throws heavy combinations with a mixture of punches and kicks. RDA also times his takedowns while his opponent is covering up. In the clinch he throws hard knees, elbows, and punches. On the ground he is heavy and pins his opponent while unleashing a heavy stream of leather. And, let’s not forget he is also a black belt in jiu jitsu. While RDA may seem like a wild brawler at times, he is far from it. Alvarez can certainly make this a fight if he can get his wrestling going. He is athletic enough to avoid RDA’s pressure but not for too long; but if he can use his wrestling effectively for five rounds, don’t be too surprised. But I don’t that’ll be the case. I think Alvarez’s tendency to stand and trade will get him in trouble with RDA’s technical pressure.
Winner: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision
Robert Winfree: This is a really good fight on paper and given the chaotic nature of the lightweight division a great main event. Eddie Alvarez hasn’t been the same wild fighter he was in Bellator since coming to the UFC, and while fans of back and forth brawls might lament that he’s actually a better fighter now than he was then. Alvarez has stopped being reckless and started fighting smarter, using calculated aggression and mixing in his wrestling offense with his generally solid punching game. Rafael dos Anjos is on an absolute tear lately, his only loss in his last eleven fights was to Khabib Nurmagomedov and he’s coming off of a first round finish of Donald Cerrone. Dos Anjos has a smothering top game with some of the best pressure passing in the division, he’s not the most active submission threat but he controls very well and does an excellent job of integrating strikes with his top control. Dos Anjos has improved wildly on the feet over the last few years, his punches still need some work as they have a bit too much arc to them but his kicking game is superb. I feel the winner of this fight will be the man going forward, neither man has demonstrated a great game when it comes to backing up thus far in their careers and both of their success are generally reliant on a pressure game rather than a countering one. And when it comes to the pressure game I have to favor dos Anjos, the way he’s simply dominated his recent competition and the way in which he’s done it lead me to believe he’ll be leading the proverbial dance, take Alvarez out of his game, and generally out work him to get a decision.
Winner: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision
Jon Butterfield: In a game of over-, under-, it’s hard to tell if Alvarez is over-rated or under-rated. His résumé is excellent, and his pedigree is legitimate – but his record is pockmarked by losses to guys he probably should be beating, and his successes in rematches reinforce that statement. While it’s hard to argue that Alvarez isn’t consistent, I just don’t feel he’s anywhere near as reliable as the UFC Lightweight Champion, who recently beat Alvarez’ first UFC conqueror Donald Cerrone with ease to make it 2-0 overall. If RDA has had a weakness, it’s been powerful wrestler-grappler types and even then RDA has shown real improvements in his game since his last defeat to Khabib Nurmagomedov, and dramatically more so when you look at losses to Clay Guida and Tyson Griffin. Let’s face it, he wouldn’t lose those fights again in a hurry.
Eddie Alvarez, for me, isn’t so much better than some of the guys RDA has dispatched handily, but I can see him running the Brazilian a little closer and I’d be surprised if we saw a finish, not least before the championship rounds. Alvarez can hold his own anywhere, but really doesn’t look strong enough in any single department to provide the kind of edge he’ll need. He might steal a round or two, but this is RDA’s fight to lose.
Winner: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Alvarez’s path to victory here is narrow and perhaps obfuscated by some shrubbery, but it unquestionably exists. He moves well, his boxing is very good, his wrestling is strong, and he’s one of the toughest fighters in the sport. However, his shortcomings – most notably his hittability – combined with dos Anjos’ impressively imposing striking, make the champion a clear favorite to retain. Alvarez will make it a fight, but he’ll likely fall short.
Winner: dos Anjos, Decision
The staff picks Rafael dos Anjos, 5-0.
Remember to join 411’s coverage of UFC Fight Night on Thursday night!
