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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Ferguson

November 5, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

WELCOME:
Former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos looks to get back in the win column against surging contender Tony Ferguson in the main event of UFC Fight Night! In the co-main event, former Bellator lightweight contender Marcin Held makes his UFC debut against Diego Sanchez. In a match originally scheduled for featherweight, Ricardo Lamas fights Charles Oliveira, who missed weight by 9 pounds. Also, a new Ultimate Fighter will be crowned as The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 3 finalists Martín Bravo and Claudio Puelles square off. Plus, Beneil Dariush faces Rashid Magomedov, Alexa Grasso vs. Heather Jo Clark, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’s 411’s Jack of All Trades, Jeffrey Harris!

  • The new guy, Lorenzo Vasquez III!

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

    Preliminary Card
    UFC Fight Pass
    Featherweight Bout: Enrique Barzola vs. Chris Avila
    Lightweight Bout: Marco Polo Reyes vs. Jason Novelli
    Middleweight Bout: Sam Alvey vs. Alex Nicholson

    Fox Sports 1
    Bantamweight Bout: Henry Briones vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
    Welterweight Bout: Erick Montaño vs. Max Griffin
    Catch-weight (140 lbs.) Bout: Marco Beltrán vs. Joe Soto
    Catch-weight (138 lbs.) Bout: Érik Pérez vs. Felipe Arantes


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Strawweight Bout: Alexa Grasso vs. Heather Jo Clark

    Jeffrey Harris: Heather Jo Clark, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Alexa Grasso, Decision
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Alexa Grasso, Decision
    The staff picks Alexa Grasso, 2-1.


    Lightweight Bout: Beneil Dariush vs. Rashid Magomedov

    Jeffrey Harris: This is a very good lightweight contest between two very tough lightweight opponents. Dariush is 7-2 in the UFC at lightweight, and he faces the 19-1 Rashid Magomedov. Magomedov is currently 4-0 at lightweight in the UFC. Dariush managed to rebound well in his last fight with a win over James Vick. For Magomedov, this is a great test for him against a Top 10 opponent. If he wins here, Magomedov can ascend up the ranks into the top 10 of the division. I could see this one going either way, but Dariush is a very well-rounded and exceptional fighter. I think he edges this one out.

    Winner: Beneil Dariush, Decision

    Robert Winfree: Outside of the main event this is the fight I’m most looking forward to. Rashid Magomedov has a really good skillset and an awesome overall winning streak of 12 including being 3-0 in the UFC while Dariush has proven himself a top lightweight contender over the last couple of years and has rounded out his skillset nicely. Normally in fights like this I’d lean towards Magomedov, but Magomedov hasn’t fought anyone on the level of Dariush yet and Dariush has power in his strikes and a superb ground game. I can see either man winning but on the whole I’m a little more comfortable picking Dariush here.

    Winner: Beneil Dariush, Decision

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: This should be a quality fight. Dariush is a sound submission grappler. On the feet, he is a pressure fighter and is always willing to get into a brawl. Magomedov is no slouch in the grappling department, as well. He is a sound wrestler. However, most of the time you’ll find him engaging in the striking game where he fights from the outside with counters, kicks, and jabs. These two match up while and in my opinion this is a tossup. There is a 50/50 chance either could win. I’m leaning toward Dariush because of experience and I feel his overall game is a small notch above Magomedov. But, don’t be surprise Magomedov takes this home.

    Winner: Beneil Dariush, Decision

    The staff picks Beneil Dariush, 3-0.


    Lightweight Bout: Martín Bravo vs. Claudio Puelles

    Jeffrey Harris: Claudio Puelles, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Martin Bravo, Decision
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Claudio Puelles, Decision
    The staff picks Claudio Puelles, 2-1.


    Lightweight Bout: Ricardo Lamas vs. Charles Oliveira

    Jeffrey Harris: This is a good featherweight fight. I think Oliveira is a very gifted and talent fighter. His grappling skills are exception. But there is seemingly always something that gets in his way where he has a hiccup or fails to win those big, important fights. I think that will be the case here. Lamas will outpoint Oliveira and win a decision.

    Winner: Ricardo Lamas, Decision

    Robert Winfree: And Fat Charles Oliveira strikes again, the reality is this fight could be called off on fight night if Oliveira puts too much weight back on. Despite is chronic struggles to make weight at featherweight Oliveira is a very good fighter, he has a tremendous grappling game especially from his back and a pretty good long game when it comes to striking. He doesn’t lose all that often and even then only to really good fighters. Unfortunately for him Ricardo Lamas is a really good fighter. Lamas is a tough durable guy, he’s got good wrestling and punching and the ability to force guys to fight on his terms. Lamas has only lost in the UFC to Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, and Max Holloway but he tends to get over looked as he’s solid but relatively unspectacular. If Oliveira tries his usual tactic of diving for takedowns then trying to pull guard he’s in for a world of hurt here as Lamas has some fearsom strikes from top position, though Oliveira has a very good guard game and he can’t be reckless there. On the feet I feel Lamas has the edge with his pressure and fire power but Oliveira’s technical striking shouldn’t be ignored. I’m leaning towards Lamas here, I’m just not sure that Oliveira is the caliber of fighter who beats him at this point.

    Winner: Ricardo Lamas, TKO, Round 2

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Oliveira likes to keep the pressure up from an offensive standpoint. He is aggressive with his Muay Thai, especially, in the clinch. His jiu jitsu is top notch and he certainly does not shy away from aggressively attacking for submissions. Defensively, he is a level below the top dogs and seems to get raddled when things aren’t going his way. To his credit, he is tough and has a tremendous heart. Lamas is a wrestler and good submission grappler. His striking is sound and basic. He is a tough fight for anyone when he is on point. He can survive but when he loses his rhythm he is very beatable. Lamas is the pick here. He’s been in there with the top five and should have the experience to keep his composure and out wit Oliveira. Lamas takes it by decision.

    Winner: Ricardo Lamas, Decision

    The staff picks Ricardo Lamas, 3-0.


    Lightweight Bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Marcin Held

    Jeffrey Harris: Marcin Held should win this easily because he’s fighting Diego Sanchez. Sanchez is really past his prime and more than likely past his expiration date for his fight career. If held is smart, he should walk away with the win and get ahold of Sanchez’s ankle for a decision.

    Winner: Marcin Held, Submission, Round 1

    Robert Winfree: Marcin Held makes his UFC debut here, the man is a submission wizard who had a terrific run in Bellator including a fight with then lightweight champion Will Brooks. Diego Sanchez has been trading wins and losses for a couple of years now and lost to Joe Lauzon his last time out, so if pattern holds he’ll get a decision win over Held here. Sanchez has the pace and wrestling to do just that, Held gives up positions to attack with leg locks frequently and Sanchez likely has the knowledge and skill to take advantage of that and simply grind him out from top position. That said, I haven’t picked Sanchez to win in a couple of years and I don’t feel like changing that trend here.

    Winner: Marcin Held, Decision

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Diego Sanchez is far into the twilight of his career. He’s put on some amazing fights and had an excellent run at the title at lightweight. Still, he really is, as they say, a shell of his former self which is good news for the debuting Marcin Held. Held is a submission ace who has looked good outside of the UFC. Sanchez, at this point in his career, is too predictable, and lacks emphasis on mixing up his game with wrestling, etc. Look for Held to get the submission. Sanchez needs to keep this fight standing or lull Held into a brawl, but his striking is far from effective enough to get it done from a technical standpoint and Held likely won’t be convinced so easily to brawl, maybe. Sanchez is hardly the athlete and fighter he once was with the exception of his heart and mental toughness. The miles have added up. He’ll make it a fight if he can, but his grit will not be enough to out wilt a skillful opponent or physically handle the punishment. Unless, however, Held exhausts himself early in the fight which he has done before. Still, Sanchez is unreliable at this stage in his career.

    Winner: Marcin Held, Submission, Round 3

    The staff picks Marcin Held, 3-0.


    Lightweight Bout: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Tony Ferguson

    Jeffrey Harris: This is an outstanding lightweight contest between two killers in the division. The fight’s a tough one to call. I can see it going a number of ways. However, I’ve been a Tony Ferguson supporter for a long time, and he’s 8-0 going into this fight. I want to see Ferguson pull this one out and fight for the title. Ferguson is well rounded and great at getting out of danger and making adjustments on the fly.

    Winner: Tony Ferguson, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: I really like this fight. Rafael dos Anjos is a pressure fighter, he knows how to move forward and force his opponent against the fence. RDA has a great left kick to the body or legs, solid punching power, and one of the most smothering top games in the sport. He excels at backing you into the fence with movement and feints with the occasional kick or punch thrown in to keep you in line then he hits double legs against the cage and procedes to smother and smash you from top position. His passing game is pressure oriented as well, and he lands heavy punches and elbows from top position if he can’t or doesn’t want to pass your guard. Dos Anjos was on his way to becoming the best lightweight ever, a title he could still claim if he can regain the lightweight title and get a couple of title defenses. Tony Ferguson is also a pressure fighter, but he achieves that pressure in a very different way than dos Anjos does. Ferguson is a wild man, he moves forward and overwhelms you with offense and variety and he never stops coming forward. Where dos Anjos moves laterally and tries to pin you on the fence Ferguson is content to move in a slightly more linear fashion but does so continually and has no problem missing and simply coming back at you, always forcing you to retreat and worry about his offense. Ferguson excels at in between spaces, while forcing his opponent to back up he lands hard leg kicks to the trailing leg or straight kicks to the belly to further drain them. Ferguson brings crushing punching power as well and an aspect of wrestling that a lot of MMA fighters aren’t proficient in, the front headlock. Ferguson’s front headlock game isn’t just about setting up a d’arce choke, though he does that very well, he controls his opponents from that position including snapping them down to the mat or just landing knees or punches when they do manage to disengage. Ferguson has a pretty wild style, including rolling away if he feels threatened or diving on submission attempts without thought for position. That’s a bad habit against a methodical jiu-jitsu practitioner like dos Anjos, who will likely dive on a dominant position if Ferguson gives it up then punish him while he tries to escape. This is yet another fight where I can see ways for either man to win, but I’m leaning towards Ferguson. Ferguson hasn’t lost in a while and his power is a big factor for dos Anjos to contend with, I won’t be surprised if RDA tags Ferguson and gets a finish either but I’m pretty high on Ferguson overall and I think he gets another big win here en route to a title shot.

    Winner: Tony Ferguson, TKO, Round 3

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: I’ve been waiting for this to happen for sometime now. This would have been a dream match up if the lightweight strap was up for grabs. Nonetheless, this is a marquee fight with “Fight of the Night” written all over it. RDA is well-rounded and a pressure fighter. His is tough and packs a bunch. His footwork is excellent and he excels at cutting off the cage. His counters are there and punishing and his offense is just as vicious; especially, for the retreating or hurt fighter. In addition, he has strong wrestling and is a black belt in jiu jitsu. Ferguson is no less of a monster. He’s proven time and time again that he is a gritty fighter and the most capable finisher in the division at the present moment—earning a total of 9-submissions and 9-knockouts. This guy can take some hard punishment and still push a tremendous pace. He can be at the receiving end of a one-sided contest and comeback out of nowhere to pull out a victory. Ferguson can be very unorthodox be it his striking, takedowns, or grappling prowess. All in all, as along as he is able to mix things up he is proficient and one of the best.

    That’s what he has to do—mix it up while applying unrelenting pressure. He has to give RDA one look and hit another. He cannot fall into one phase of the fight game. He has to dominate from one area and switch it up before RDA gets a read and his timing and then switch up again all while looking for the finish. RDA has to test Ferguson with his punishing pressure. If there is a place RDA can win this more convincingly it is with his striking. He has to cut the cage and keep Ferguson on his heels. He can’t allow Ferguson to get his rhythm going. If things hit the mat, RDA can’t play from the bottom, he has to get up or reverse positions. From the top he must be heavy and punish Ferguson. This is an exciting bout and it is hard to pick. They are killers and it should make for an interesting night. I don’t like that RDA switched things with his camp, etc. But, I must admit, I’m a little bias towards Ferguson. With that said, Ferguson gets the finish in the third by submission.

    Winner: Tony Ferguson, Submission, Round 3

    The staff picks Tony Ferguson, 3-0.


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