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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Oliveira
WELCOME:
Max Holloway looks to extend his winning streak to seven when he meets Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC Fight Night from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan! In the co-main event, Erick Silva faces late replacement Neil Magny. A match between veterans Patrick Cote and Josh Burkman is also featured. At lightweight, Chad Laprise battles Francisco Trinaldo. Plus, Olivier Aubin-Mercier fights Tony Sims, and Maryna Moroz vs. Valerie Letourneau!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Light Heavyweight Bout: Misha Cirkunov vs. Daniel Jolly
Lightweight Bout: Shane Campbell vs. Elias Silverio
Fox Sports 1
Flyweight Bout: Chris Kelades vs. Chris Beal
Light Heavyweight Bout: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Nikita Krylov
Bantamweight Bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Felipe Arantes
Lightweight Bout: Sam Stout vs. Frankie Perez
THE MAIN CARD:
Strawweight Bout: Maryna Moroz vs. Valerie Letourneau
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Valerie Letourneau, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Valerie Letourneau, Decision
Robert Winfree: Valerie Letourneau, Decision
The staff picks Valerie Letourneau, 3-0.
Lightweight Bout: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Tony Sims
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Submission, Round 3
Jeffrey Harris: Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Olivier Aubin-Mercier, 3-0.
Lightweight Bout: Chad Laprise vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Trinaldo is a veteran fighter. He is strong and has some decent speed and power but nothing overwhelming. He likes to throw with power and works comfortably in close quarters. His clinch game is decent; however, he’s only been able to muster out wins against those in the shallow end of the division. Laprise is an excellent striker. He is slick. He uses his jab to set up combinations and has great movement making him hard to counter on. He also has solid counter striking and defensive wrestling. Trinaldo is entering the twilight of his career while Laprise is entering his prime. Laprise will have to work but he will pick the decision victory.
Winner: Chad Laprise, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Francisco Trinaldo is actually a solid and underrated lightweight fighter and UFC veteran. Laprise is a decent prospect who won his season of The Ultimate Fighter Nations. Currently, Laprise is undefeated in MMA and 3-0 in the UFC. Trinaldo is on a three-fight winning streak, and he has an overall Octagon record of 7-3. This is a good step up in competition for Laprise. I see this fight being a close decision, but I’m giving Trinaldo an edge here due to his amount of fights and experience. Laprise gets his first MMA and UFC defeat here.
Winner: Francisco Trinaldo, Decision
Robert Winfree: Francisco Trinaldo has been around the UFC for a while, he’s a got power in his strikes and a decent submission game but poor wrestling. Trinaldo will be looking to either get on top of Laprise on the mat or fight at distance with kicks to the leg and body. Chad Laprise is a pretty typical grinding fighter, he fights where he thinks he has the best chance to win and takes minimal risks. I think Laprise will be able to out wrestle Trinaldo and get a decision.
Winner: Chad Laprise, Decision
The staff picks Chad Laprise, 2-1.
Welterweight Bout: Patrick Cote vs. Josh Burkman
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Two veterans here trying to climb their way back up to relevancy. Both fighters like to come forward; however, Burkman has the more proficient boxing whereas Cote has the power. Cote has improved his wrestling game recently but Burkman has been a wrestler his whole career. Burkman should be able to pick up the win but he hasn’t looked too good as of late. Cote is as gritty as they come and if Burkman isn’t up to par the Canadian can win convincingly. Burkman should win a close decision, however. He will need to use his wrestling to fend off Cote and get the better of the exchanges on the feet.
Winner: Josh Burkman, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Josh Burkman is really in a must-win situation. While he generally looked outstanding while he was outside the UFC and was dominating opponents in the WSOF, he has generally looked less than spectacular since he returned to the UFC. Patrick Cote is definitely a winnable fight for Burkman, provided he is healthy and prepared for this fight. Cote is a striker and kickboxer who has a lot of UFC fights, but he’s always been a fairly mediocre fighter. I might be going out on a limb here, but I think Burkman has an overall better skill set. This is a fight he should be able to dominate and win.
Winner: Josh Burkman, Decision
Robert Winfree: I don’t like this fight. Patrick Cote is in his third UFC stint, and while he’s done alright for himself in terms of wins and losses he hasn’t had a watchable fight. Cote has some decent boxing and has improved his grappling both offensively and defensively, but that means he now tends to rely on grinding decisions to win fights and anyone who’s a better wrestler or striker will beat him. Josh Burkman has looked great against lower levels of competition but he falters against better fighters. Burkman has some decent power in his punches and is a fine enough wrestler, this is really kind of a do or die fight for him because with a No Contest against Hector Lombard and a loss to Dong Hyun Kim if he can’t beat a guy like Cote he’ll get his walking papers again. Both men can win, so I’m basically flipping a coin here.
Winner: Patrick Cote, Decision
The staff picks Josh Burkman, 2-1.
Welterweight Bout: Neil Magny vs. Erick Silva
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Magny steps in on short notice and will try to get back to his winning ways by fighting the up and down Erick Silva. Magny is a lot better than he appeared to be in his last fight. Demian Maia is one of the best grapplers in the world and Magny simply wasn’t ready for that. Anyways, Magny has a reach advantage and knows how to use it. He is rangy, can pressure and hold a strong pace, and has solid counter striking. His wrestling defense is solid and he has good ground work. Silva likes to blitz forward and swing with everything almost immediately. He is explosive and powerful and also has some excellent grappling skills. However, he tends to tire quickly because of his fighting style. Magny needs to weather the storm and drag the fight out into deep waters and Silva needs to find the finish quickly. I think this can go either way. It’s a toss-up. Magny weathers the storm and picks up a decision victory.
Winner: Neil Magny, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Credit to Neil Magny for stepping in on extremely short notice to face Erick Silva. Not to mention this is just three weeks after he was just submitted by Demian Maia in the biggest fight of his career. It was a huge fight and opportunity for Magny, but Maia crushed his hopes of ascending to title contention level. Not to mention, just three weeks later, he’s fighting such a dangerous opponent such as Erick Silva. Silva is a very dangerous and explosive striker. However, he’s been very hit and miss throughout his UFC career. Provided Magny didn’t suffer a lot of damage and he’s still ready for a fight, he does have a style that could give Silva problems. Silva has had trouble with strong wrestlers in the past, like with Jon Fitch. Magny is coming off an incredibly tough loss. Silva is a dangerous fighter, however he’s had too many losses to make me believe he could be welterweight’s Anderson Silva. Provided Magny is ready for Silva’s striking, I believe he comes out of this fight with an upset and gets back on the winning track.
Winner: Neil Magny, Decision
Robert Winfree: Future UFC welterweight champion Neil Magny takes this fight on short notice after being submitted by Demian Maia less than a month ago. Erick Silva is a fighter the UFC really wants to be better than he is. Silva has an explosive striking style and isn’t afraid to grab submissions on the mat. Unfortunately Silva also tires after about three minutes of action and seems to have some serious mental lapses in the cage. Magny is a tough fighter, and Silva has struggled against wrestlers in the past. If Magny can survive the first few minutes he’ll take over as Silva tires. I wasn’t picking Silva against Rick Story and I see no reason to alter that now that a better fighter is taking on Silva.
Winner: Neil Magny, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Neil Magny, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
Lorenzo Vasquez III: What a contest we have here. Both men are the future of the featherweight division. They both fell short against some the top dogs in the division but have since gone on impressive winning streaks. Holloway is an improved striker with great accuracy, movement, and range. His standup defense is excellent as opponents have often had a hard time landing clean shot son him lately. Another great asset is his ability to stuff takedowns and, thus, keep the fight standing. Oliveira is a decent striker but his bread and butter is his submission game and he has some great clinch work that he chains into takedowns really well. He is well-rounded but he really excels on the ground where he has earned more than half of his 20 victories. Holloway has to play the range game here. If he can keep Oliveira at range and stop the takedown, I believe he can win the fight by picking Oliveira apart much like his pervious competition. Oliveira has decent striking but I am not sure it is good enough to challenge Holloway for very long. Oliveira has to get on the inside and beat Holloway up in the clinch well chaining takedowns. Simply stated, his best chance at wining is getting the fight to the ground. This fight decides who is ready to move on and make a run at the title. Oliveira is good but I don’t think he has what it takes to be a top dog at the moment. Holloway will eventually find his range and handily defeat Oliveira.
Winner: Max Holloway, TKO, Round 5
Jeffrey Harris: Believe it or not, this is an outstanding featherweight contest. Both of these guys are two of my favorites to watch at featherweight, and they rarely compete in boring contests. Max Holloway looks like a completely different fighter than when he first stepped foot in the UFC, and back then he was already pretty good. Since losing to Conor McGregor, Holloway has gone on an incredible win streak, and he’s coming off an amazing submission win over Cub Swanson. Oliveira is also on his own winning streak, but he’s had more than one issue at making weight since he moved down to the featherweight division. Both guys are tough and well-rounded competitors. However, Holloway has improved in just about every area. He is an explosive striker that has added wrinkles to his grappling game. His grappling and takedown defense are both very strong. Even a lengthy and tall fighter like Cole Miller couldn’t get ahold of him and take him down. I say that gives Holloway an edge here. The first round will be tough, but eventually, Holloway will get the better of Oliveira in the standup and score the knockout victory.
Winner: Max Holloway, TKO, Round 3
Robert Winfree: I really like this fight. Both men are on winning streaks, both men are ranked in the top ten of the division, and both men have a history of entertaining and technically sound fights. Charles Oliveira has been brimming with potential for a long time, and in many ways he needs a win to move from prospect to contender. Oliveira has won his last four fights but they’ve been against a lower level of competition, Oliveira has always struggled when taking the step up from the average to the top level and Holloway has proven himself to be at the top level. Holloway has won six fights in a row and his last loss was to current interim champ Conor McGregor. Oliveira has a very upright striking style, which plays into the volume based boxing of Holloway. Oliveira will be the better pure grappler but I’m not sure he has the wrestling to get Holloway down and work his skills there. I just can’t pick a guy with a spotty track record and somewhat questionable chin against Holloway over five rounds.
Winner: Max Holloway, TKO, Round 4
The staff picks Max Holloway, 3-0.
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