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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
WELCOME:
UFC returns with its fourth show in six days! In the main event, Michael McDonald takes on John Lineker! At lightweight, contender Tony Ferguson looks to take out newcomer Landon Vannata. In middleweight action, Tim Boetsch fights Josh Samman. At heavyweight, Daniel Omielańczuk battles Oleksiy Olynyk. Plus, Kyle Noke faces Keita Nakamura, Louis Smolka vs. Ben Nguyen, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card:
UFC Fight Pass
Middleweight Bout: Devin Clark vs. Alex Nicholson
Bantamweight Bout: Rani Yahya vs. Matthew Lopez
Fox Sports 1
Lightweight Bout: Scott Holtzman vs. Cody Pfister
Strawweight Bout: Cortney Casey vs. Cristina Stanciu
Middleweight Bout: Eric Spicely vs. Sam Alvey
Bantamweight Bout: Lauren Murphy vs. Katlyn Chookagian
THE MAIN CARD:
Flyweight Bout: Louis Smolka vs. Ben Nguyen
Robert Winfree: Louis Smolka, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: Louis Smolka, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Ben Nguyen, Decision
The staff picks Louis Smolka, 2-1.
Welterweight Bout: Kyle Noke vs. Keita Nakamura
Robert Winfree: Keita Nakamura, Submission, Round 3
Jeffrey Harris: Kyle Noke, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Kyle Noke, Decision
The staff picks Kyle Noke, 2-1.
Heavyweight Bout: Daniel Omielańczuk vs. Oleksiy Oliynyk
Robert Winfree: It’s about time Oleksiy Oliynyk got back in the cage, he last fought in November of 2014 and knocked out Jared Rosholt in the first round. Oliynyk is on a massive winning streak and has some truly elite level grappling, he’s unbeaten in the UFC and after that vicious KO of Rosholt was poised to maybe start a run up the division. Well injuries derailed that momentum, specifically multiple knee surgeries and the resultant rehabilitation, but he’s back now. Daniel Omielanczuk is on a two fight winning streak, he’s a pretty tough well rounded fighter who wont turn down a brawl. I think Omielanczuk is just a little out of his depth here, despite the long layoff I’ve got Oliynyk taking the submission. Seriously, Oliynyk has a list of grappling accolades longer than my arm.
Winner: Oleksiy Oliynyk, Submission, Round 1
Jeffrey Harris: These are two lower level, lesser known heavyweights, but both of them have winning records in the UFC believe it or not. Oliynyk actually started fairly well in the UFC, knocking out Jared Rosholt and submitting Anthony Hamilton before that. Hopefully, this fight will end quickly and not go all three rounds as that’s usually bad news for any heavyweight fight. I’m picking Oliynyk to get another impressive finish here.
Winner: Oleksiy Oliynyk, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Daniel Omielanczuk is no grappler or wrestler and he is hardly an elite striker. He has power and the basics down enough to be a threat. Oliynyk is sound grappler and that is where he is likely to take this fight. Omielanczuk lacks the ground game and takedown defense to stop Oliynyk and Oliynyk has the stand up to handle himself against Omielanczuk. Oliynyk wins by submission.
Winner: Oleksiy Oliynyk, Submission, Round 1
The staff picks Oleksiy Olinyk, 3-0.
Middleweight Bout: Tim Boetsch vs. Josh Samman
Robert Winfree: This one should be fun. Tim Boetsch has some decent wrestling and brawling skills, is a pretty big middleweight, and was kind enough to use the single dumbest possible game plan against Dan Henderson last year and let Hendo get the win. He’s also lost three in a row and if he can’t right that particular ship here he’s getting cut for the second time. Josh Samman is a tough fighter as well, good striking skills and a solid wrestling ability. Given Boetsch’s slump and habit of fighting poorly I’m taking Samman here via TKO.
Winner: Josh Samman, TKO, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Tim Boetsch might have a wrestling edge that could give Josh Samman problems, but he’s proven time and time again how weak and vulnerable of a striker he is. Boetsch is in a must-win situation here, having lost his last three fights including knockout losses to Ed Herman and Dan Henderson. Samman started strong in his UFC career, but he went down by submission to Tamdan McCrory in his last fight. Boetsch tends to make a lot of mistakes and leave a lot of openings here, which I think will allow the more powerful striker in Samman to take advantage and win.
Winner: Josh Samman, TKO, Round 1
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Josh Samman is the better striker. He is not crisp or technical, but against Tim Boetsch he will have an advantage in striking and a weakness in wrestling/grappling. However, his clinch work is sound. Boetsch was once a great pressure fighter using his wrestling to maul opponents in the clinch; however, he has slowed down recently. Nonetheless, he is a gritty fighter and dangerous with his power. This fight is winnable for Boetsch but he’s been unreliable in his last three fights. Samman is younger and entering his athletic prime. While, I doubt Samman will one day be an elite top five fighter, he should be able to take the win from Boetsch.
Winner: Josh Samman, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Josh Samman, 3-0.
Lightweight Bout: Tony Ferguson vs. Landon Vannata
Robert Winfree: I was really looking forward to the first incarnation of this fight, the original main event for this card, when Tony Ferguson was going to fight Michael Chiesa. Sadly Chiesa got injured but Ferguson remains on the card. Tony Ferguson is a wild man in the cage, rolling knee bar attempts, rolling entries into single legs, great ability to grab d’arce or anaconda chokes in transition, hard kicks and some crushing punching power. Ferguson’s career rise has been impressive, he went from a rather generic wrestle/boxer to a legitimate top lightweight and improved his skill set every step of the way. Chiesa would have been a good test, as he’s got some legitimate top shelf skills as well, but against a new comer on short notice I can’t pick against Ferguson. That being said, lightweight is a fundamentally insane division so don’t be terribly shocked by any outcome.
Winner: Tony Ferguson, TKO, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: You can’t sleep on anyone in the lightweight division, even an unknown fighter like Landon Vannata, who steps in on short notice here to fight Tony Ferguson. Ferguson’s original opponent was meant to be Michael Chiesa, which would’ve been a great lightweight contest. Ferguson is really overdue for a title shot. He’s a well-rounded and dynamic opponent. He should win here and win impressively, but anything can happen in a fight.
Winner: Tony Ferguson, Decision
Lorenzo Vasquez III: Landon Vannata has a tall order in front of him and on short notice. He makes his debut against “El Cucuy” Tony Ferguson. I don’t know much about Vannata other than he is a wrestler by trade and a developing prospect. Ferguson is an evolving unorthodox wrestler and striker. He is slick in transitions and uses his opponents offensive to flow with his own. When standing Ferguson throws elbows, low kicks, and spinning strikes while switching stances. Ferguson should pick up an easy win by way of stoppage.
Winner: Tony Ferguson, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Tony Ferguson, 3-0.
Bantamweight Bout: Michael McDonald vs. John Lineker
Robert Winfree: This is a pretty good bantamweight fight. John Lineker has looked great since finally moving up officially to bantamweight, he’s a brawler with big power in his hands and a surprisingly effective submission game if you don’t watch out for it. Michael McDonald is a striker as well, more technical generally than Lineker, but his power shots are somewhat limited to his right uppercut. These two should engage in an entertaining fight, I’m leaning towards McDonald but if he brawls with Lineker instead of trying to out box him he’s going to get tagged and either submitted or pounded out.
Winner: Michael McDonald, TKO, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: I like this fight a lot. After a long absence, Michael McDonald came back with an impressive win over Masanori Kanehara at UFC 195. Since he finally moved up to welterweight, John Lineker has also been really good after multiple botches at flyweight, a weight cut he could not feasibly make. Both guys are tough and incredibly powerful, however Lineker is a guy with great striking and heavy hands, especially for his size. I could see McDonald taking a round, but eventually, I think Lineker gets the job done here.
Winner: John Lineker, TKO, Round 3
Lorenzo Vasquez III: After a two-year absence, Michael McDonald made his return in January of this year by beating Masanori Kanehara. It wasn’t a fight a he was dominating, but he managed to sneak in the submission. John Lineker has won two straight since moving up to bantamweight and has looked just as impressive there as he did at flyweight. Linker likes to turn up the pressure, and attack the body and head, throwing power into every strike. McDonald has power in his punches, is long, and likes to come in combinations. His ground game is also decent, but nothing special. He does have an advantage on the ground over Lineker. Lineker looks to be on up while McDonald didn’t look too good his last time out. McDonald looks like he was falling behind but that could be the end result of a long layoff. I’m leaning towards Lineker to eventually crack McDonald with heavy pressure and thunderous punches.
Winner: John Lineker, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks John Lineker, 2-1.
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