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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson

September 17, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

WELCOME:
The UFC train keeps rolling into Texas for UFC Fight Night! In the main event, Dustin Poirier aims to continue his hot streak when he faces Michael Johnson. At middleweight, Uriah Hall battles Derek Brunson. In lightweight action, Evan Dunham fights Rick Glenn. At welterweight, Roan Carneiro takes on Kenny Robertson. Plus, Chris Wade dances with Islam Makhachev, Chas Skelly vs. Maximo Blanco, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’s 411’s Jack of All Trades, Jeffrey Harris!

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • The Scoutmaster, Jon Butterfield!

  • The new guy, Lorenzo Vasquez III!

    Preliminary Card
    UFC Fight Pass
    Bantamweight Bout: Alejandro Pérez vs. Albert Morales
    Welterweight Bout: Erick Montaño vs. Randy Brown

    Fox Sports 1
    Bantamweight Bout: José Alberto Quiñonez vs. Joey Gomez
    Middleweight Bout: Antônio Carlos Júnior vs. Leonardo Augusto Guimarães
    Welterweight Bout: Augusto Montaño vs. Belal Muhammad
    Featherweight Bout: Gabriel Benítez vs. Sam Sicilia


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Featherweight Bout: Chas Skelly vs. Maximo Blanco

    Jeffrey Harris: Chas Skelly, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Chas Skelly, Decision
    Jon Butterfield: Chas Skelly, Submission, Round Two
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Chas Skelly, Decision
    The staff picks Chas Skelly, 4-0.


    Lightweight Bout: Chris Wade vs. Islam Makhachev

    Jeffrey Harris: Chris Wade, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Chris Wade, Decision
    Jon Butterfield: Chris Wade, Decision
    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Chris Wade, Decision
    The staff picks Chris Wade, 4-0.


    Welterweight Bout: Roan Carneiro vs. Kenny Robertson

    Jeffrey Harris: Roan Carneiro moves to middleweight after going 1-1 at middleweight since his return to the UFC. He faces Kenny Robertson, who has fairly mixed results in the UFC himself with a 5-4 record. Both fighters have very strong submission and grappling skills. Robertson has finished all but one of his UFC wins. I’m giving the edge to Robertson here. I’m just not keen on Carneiro making a weight cut down to 170 pounds without it affecting him.

    Winner: Kenny Robertson, Submission, Round 1

    Robert Winfree: Kenny Robertson has had a pretty good UFC run so far, but he’s a rather typical brawler/grinder with decent skills all around but nothing that necessarily stands out. Roan Carneiro is something of a jiu-jitsu specialist by comparison, though his striking has been improving over his last three or four fights. I don’t quite see Robertson being on Carneiro’s level, if Carneiro can avoid brawling and get Robertson on his back this is more his fight to lose than anything else.

    Winner: Roan Carneiro, Submission, Round 2

    Jon Butterfield: Roan Carneiro’s Jiu Jitsu is world renowned, and his UFC return has been something of a feel good story a full eight years since his Octagon debut. His victory over Mark Munoz was incredibly impressive and put people on notice that Jucao was back with bad intentions. However Carneiro’s next performance saw him land nothing clean against Derek Brunson, who put him away by TKO in 2:38 as a result of a Carneiro mistake. Against Brunson, Carneiro looked aggressive – overly so – but without anything to really trouble the talented middleweight. Now he returns to welterweight to face Kenny Robertson, who lost last time out against Ben Saunders to snap an impressive three-fight winning streak. Prior to that, Robertson capitalized on some sloppy striking defence from Sultan Aliev, something he is liable to find here if the Brunson fight was anything to go by. While Carneiro has every chance with a looping punch or by embroiling Robertson in a favourable grappling exchange, I see Robertson avoiding the heaviest of his opponent’s artillery and pulling off an impressive win. Needless to say, the longer this goes the more it favours Robertson, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the TKO in the late second or possibly third round.

    Winner: Kenny Robertson, TKO, Round Two

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Carneiro has a black belt in jiu jitsu making him a lethal grappler. He also has sound fundamental striking. However, the best way to think of Careiro is in terms of, “your best defense is an offense” because he lacks defensive skills; particularly, when the bull is charging in aggressively. Robertson is a wrestler with a Division I background. His striking lacks fundamentals and is often aggressive and wide. On the ground he is aggressive and great in scrambles. Plus, he has submission skills. Carneiro is probably the better rounded fighter but, he breaks defensively as soon as the pressure turns up. Robertson is the kind of fighter who really turns the pressure up. Carneir’s best chance may be to catch Robertson in a submission during a wild scramble. But he’ll have to open up from his back without fear of Robertson’s wrestling and submissions. Robertson just has to make this a dirty and grueling fight. He has to pressure without letting up. The pick here is Robertson by TKO sometime late in the first or in the second.

    Winner: Kenny Robertson, TKO, Round 1

    The staff picks Kenny Robertson, 3-1.


    Lightweight Bout: Evan Dunham vs. Rick Glenn

    Jeffrey Harris: Evan Dunham has been on quite the role as of late. At one point, he was in a 1-4 slump in five fights. Lately, he’s improved, going 3-0. It’s the first time he’s been on a three-fight winning streak since 2010 when he first joined the UFC and went 4-0. He probably should’ve gone 5-0, but he was given a ridiculous loss to Sean Sherk in a fight he should’ve won. Dunham here faces Rick Glenn, the former World Series of Fighting featherweight champion. Glenn is 18-3, and this fight is a huge opportunity for him. He makes his UFC debut on the main card for an FS1 event, and he’s facing a lightweight UFC veteran with 10 wins inside the Octagon, and a fighter who is on a winning streak. For Glenn, this fight could really be a way for him to have a breakout performance and get everyone talking about him. For this fight, Glenn’s a solid fighter and athlete. He’s put together a good resume. However, he’s now moving up in weight in the UFC’s most stacked, shark-infested division. I am leaning toward Dunham here. Dunham’s not been much of a finisher lately, but his grappling game is pretty strong. I imagine he’s going to use his grappling and takedown to take this to the ground and essentially control Glenn for most of the fight.

    Winner: Evan Dunham, Decision

    Robert Winfree: Evan Dunham has had an odd career path so far, after losing a Clucky decision to Sean Sherk he was thought of as a future title challenger but he struggled to find any kind of consistency until very recently when he went on a three fight winning streak. Dunham has a really good grappling game and his striking in his last fight against Joe Lauzon looked better than ever. Dunham was supposed to fight Abel Trujillo here, an interesting fight as Trujillo’s power could trouble Dunham, but Trujillo got injured and had to pull out of the fight. Rick Glenn was the second WSOF featherweight champion but was submitted by Lance Palmer in his first title defense. Glenn has a good record with most of his wins coming via stoppage due to strikes but I think he’s going to find himself in over his head here.

    Winner: Evan Dunham, Submission, Round 2

    Jon Butterfield: All right, Rick Glenn is a great pick up for the UFC, a highly talented fighter who ordinarily operates at featherweight and makes the most of his long, lean frame in striking exchanges. He can finish anywhere, but has made a habit of scoring TKO’s in the second and third stanzas. Arguably his biggest win to date came in picking up the WSOF Featherweight title with a stoppage of Georgi Karakhanyan. He steps in for Abel Trujillo and will provide a much sterner examination of Dunham’s continuing credentials than some may expect. That said, it’s hard not to lean towards Dunham given Dunham is fighting at his natural weight class and has put together a string of quality victories over the likes of Damm, Pearson and Lauzon. What might surprise some here is that Glenn is actually the taller fighter, with a significant reach advantage – but don’t confuse that length for size, as Dunham is accustomed to fighting at 155 lbs and is nowhere as wiry as Glenn, despite only surrendering an inch in height. I expect the first round to raise holy hell, before Dunham begins to exert his physical dominance later in the fight. This should be even more fun if Glenn can take the first and Dunham has to effectively chase the result. Even so, I think he does it – Dunham is great, and Glenn likely figures heavily at 145 lbs.

    Winner: Evan Dunham, Decision

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: After, looking like his run as a promising lightweight was just about over, Dunham has managed to put three nice wins together. His striking has never been crisp and too technical but, judging from his last three bouts, it appears to be getting better. He is, however, primarily a grappler with strong wrestling, a good grasp of positioning, and solid submission skills. He likes to close the distance quickly and get takedowns. From top position he will chip away until he finds an opening for the finish via submission or strikes or he will grind you to a decision. Glenn appears to like to fight from the outside. He likes to keep his opponent at the end of stinging punches and steadily increasing the volume. He looks like a sound clinch fighter as well. He steps in, ties up, and leaves his mark just before slipping out of his opponent counter. While, Glenn is tall and lanky, Dunham will be the bigger and stronger man. I believe that will be crucial in addition to the fact this is Glenn’s UFC debut. I think Dunham wins this one by submission in the second.

    Winner: Evan Dunham, Submission, Round 2

    The staff picks Evan Dunham, 4-0.


    Middleweight Bout: Uriah Hall vs. Derek Brunson

    Jeffrey Harris: If Uriah Hall was a more consistent fighter, I’d definitely pick him here. However, even though Hall is more than capable of pulling off some stunning finishes and upsets, like he did against Gegard Mousasi, he’s not able to do that consistently. Far too often, Hall looks gun shy, and he fails to pull the trigger. He seems to have mental issues and already “loses” the fight before he steps into the cage. Brunson on the other hand was a guy who struggled early on in his UFC days, but he’s been on quite a role as of late. He’s on a four-fight winning streak, and he’s won his last three fights in a row by way of knockout. Brunson is currently ranked No. 10 at middleweight, and a win here would continually allow him to surge up the rankings. While I like Hall, and I’m inspired by when he can pull off those holy cow kicks that put his opponents away, he’s just far too inconsistent. Brunson also has knockout power and wrestling skills that I see ultimately overwhelming Hall.

    Winner: Derek Brunson, Decision

    Robert Winfree: If I were to sum this match up it would be explosion and potential vs. consistency. Derek Brunson’s only UFC loss is to Yoel Romero in a fight he was winning. Brunson has a good mix of wrestling and striking, he’s on a four fight winning streak with three of those coming via stoppage, and most importantly is fundamentally a pressure fighter. Uriah Hall shows flashes of devastating power and flashy technique but is the definition of inconsistent as his most recent win came on something of a fluke after he was thoroughly dominated on the mat by Gegard Mousasi. If Brunson gives Hall space and time to settle into the fight he could well lose but Hall struggles to pull the trigger at times and generally doesn’t respond well when pressured, see his fights vs. Rafael Natal and Robert Whittaker if you don’t believe me, and I think Brunson’s pressure and ability to score takedowns will put him in a position to wear down and ultimately finish Hall.

    Winner: Derek Brunson, TKO, Round 3

    Jon Butterfield: Uriah Hall has the power to KO anyone at middleweight, but Robert Whittaker was able to expose a certain one-dimensionality in him last time out. While Hall certainly had his moments and is capable of hurting even the toughest opponents, I don’t expect Derek Brunson to succumb to Hall’s violent striking here, largely because he has the option of clinch work and trip takedowns to put Hall in disadvantageous positions. I also wouldn’t expect Brunson to necessarily refuse to strike, as he can level changes to his advantage and force Hall on to the back foot – but realistically he wins by taking this one to the cage or the mat.

    Winner: Derek Brunson, Decision

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Hall was once a hot prospective and, despite his up and down 5-to-4 UFC career, he still actually is. For a time, it seemed to be all about flashiness, or, a lack of ability to press the action. He has had some nice finishes and some terrible showings. Nonetheless, he has shown sound technique lately by not being overwhelmed easily by pressure and making sure his movement is better and crisper while upping the volume of his strikes thrown. He is athletic, dynamic, and explosive. His grappling seems decent and he’ll look for submissions off his back or to stay heavy while on top. Brunson is a wrestler. His striking is not too crisp, let alone a technical master piece. But, he hits hard enough to make it count. Mostly, he is a strong and aggressive wrestler. He shoots for the legs and powers his opponent down and is heavy on top. He’ll often stay in whatever position he finds himself when on top and land punches and elbows while controlling his foe. Hall will likely do best if he can keep Brunson at range on the outside while maintaining a high volume of strikes. Brunson will do best to get right in and grind Hall for dear life until he breaks the man or gets a stoppage. The safe pick is Brunson. Though, he lost, I can’t ignore how competitive he was against Yoel Romero. Plus, Hall hasn’t completely let fans forget about his, for lack of better terms, frustrating performances. He could surprise us, though.

    Winner: Derek Brunson, Decision

    The staff picks Derek Brunson, 4-0.


    Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson

    Jeffrey Harris: This is a very good lightweight fight between two top-10 UFC lightweights. Dustin Poirier has been utterly fantastic at lightweight and not really getting the attention he deserves. He was a legitimate top five fighter at featherweight, which no one really gave him credit for. Since moving up to lightweight, Poirier hasn’t looked like he lost a step at all. He’s won his last four fights, bringing his total UFC record to 11-3. His only losses were at featherweigh to Chan Sung Jung, Cub Swanson and Conor McGregor. So he’s only lost to other top contenders or a champion in the form of McGregor. I like this fight with Johnson a lot. Right now, Johnson is down 0-2, so he definitely needs a win here to stay in the top 10. However, this fight is a good opportunity for him because he’s fighting a man who is higher up in the rankings and on a bigger winning streak. I’m leaning toward Poirier here. He is not only a dangerous submission artist, but his striking skills get better with every fight. I see Poirier as more well-rounded than Johnson, who is a good fighter, but he has quite a bit of problems with consistency in the UFC himself.

    Winner: Dustin Poirier, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: This has some potential fireworks in it, I’m really looking forward to this fight. Michael Johnson is a good wrestler and has some power in his hands but in looking at his last couple of fights a few things struck me about him. First he’s a front runner, Johnson is unlikely to come from behind. Second he doesn’t respond well to pressure, when he’s dictating the pace and location of a fight he does very well but he falls off when his opponent exerts their influence. Finally he doesn’t adjust well, his stubborn adherence to a losing game plan against Nate Diaz being a prime example, when things don’t go his way. Dustin Poirier is an aggressive fighter, his boxing has come up a lot over his last several fights and his grappling has always been superb. I’m not sure how Johnson will handle what Poirier brings, between the pressure and the excellent grappling I get the feeling Johnson might be over matched here. If they decide to stand and trade with each other Johnson has enough power to make it interesting, but if Poirier controls the distance and forces this onto the mat on his terms I really like his chances as Johnson’s mat work has always been something of a liability.

    Winner: Dustin Poirier, Submission, Round 3

    Jon Butterfield: I’m not sure I’ve ever picked a Michael Johnson fight accurately, if I’m brutally honest. The guy has tended to beat those I picked over him (who in retrospect have largely been dynamic strikers or stifling wrestlers), while losing to real mixed bag. With the exception of Joe Lauzon who MJ beat, the guys who have tended to beat Johnson have often possessed solid grappling credentials and have been able to avoid MJ’s boxing. Poirier, as one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC, has the option to mix things up much like some of those other fighters. While he’s unlikely to complete a straight forward takedown on Johnson, he’s far and away the better striker and is in possession of vastly superior grappling. Johnson’s advantages are striking power and wrestling, but I’m not sure he has the skill to circumnavigate Poirier’s extensive arsenal. I say this with haste given my track on Johnson fights, but Poirier to me looks better at too many aspects of the fight game to lose here. I think he finishes this one early and makes yet another statement.

    Winner: Dustin Poirier, Submission, Round One

    Lorenzo Vasquez III: Poirier has looked impressive since returning to the lightweight division. Johnson is no slouch, himself. However, he is riding a two-fight losing streak. Poirier seems to have improved his overall movement and defense—footwork, head moments, feinting, and using angels. He is more of a pressure fighter, always moving forward, and his striking is tight from inside the pocket and he usually isn’t afraid to let his hands fly. His work from the clinch is a nice mix of pressure and chaining takedowns if he deems it necessary. Johnson is also somewhat of a pressure fighter, though, he tries to preserve his range from the outside (sticking and moving) while moving forward instead of rushing right into the pocket. His striking is aggressive. Johnson has good takedown defense and is an overall sound fighter. This is a fight that could really go either way. If Johnson can avoid takedowns and the clinch while working from the outside with counters and a stick and move game he can steal rounds and maybe test Poirier’s chin. If Poirier can get inside the pocket and cautiously blast away and tagging Johnson, get the clinch and smother, and maybe try for a takedown or two without expending too much energy he can definitely win a decision or possibly get the finish. Johnson seems to be a durable fighter so I wouldn’t completely count on Poirier outing him by KO or TKO. But he does tend to leave himself open after he fires off a punch or two. He will be faster than Poirier too. I like Poirier’s chances better. I think he will light Johnson up a few times and steal the fight from the clinch or within the pocket. Nonetheless, I expect Johnson to put up a gritty fight. This goes to decision but should be an excellent contest.

    Winner: Dustin Poirier, Decision

    The staff picks Dustin Poirier, 4-0.


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