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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs. Dos Santos
WELCOME:
The UFC debuts in Croatia with Ben Rothwell looking to move one step closer to a title match when he takes on former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in the main event of UFC Fight Night! In the co-main event, Derrick Lewis looks to build momentum against veteran Gabriel Gonzaga. It’s a heavy-weighted show as the debuting Curtis Blaydes challenges the 265 lbs. limit and battles Francis Ngannou, and Timothy Johnson clashes with Marcin Tybura. Plus, Igor Pokrajac fights Jan Blachowicz, Maryna Moroz vs. Christina Stanciu, and more!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Welterweight Bout: Bojan Veličković vs. Alessio Di Chirico
Heavyweight Bout: Jared Cannonier vs. Cyril Asker
Featherweight Bout: Robert Whiteford vs. Lucas Martins
Fox Sports 1
Bantamweight Bout: Filip Pejić vs. Damian Stasiak
Lightweight Bout: Mairbek Taisumov vs. Damir Hadzović
Bantamweight Bout: Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Pérez
Welterweight Bout: Nicolas Dalby vs. Zak Cummings
THE MAIN CARD:
Strawweight Bout: Maryna Moroz vs. Christina Stanciu
Jeffrey Harris: Maryna Moroz, Decision
Robert Winfree: Maryna Moroz, Submission, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Moroz, Decision
The staff picks Maryna Moroz, 3-0.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Igor Pokrajac vs. Jan Blachowicz
Jeffrey Harris: Igor Pokrajac, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Jan Blachowicz, TKO,Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Blachowicz, Decision
The staff picks Jan Blachowicz, 3-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura
Jeffrey Harris: Timothy Johnson faces the debuting Marcin Tybura here. Timothy Johnson had an awful fight his last time out against Jared Rosholt. It was a fight where he had openings and opportunities to win, and he still couldn’t get the job done. Just due to that and his horrendous cardio, I’m expecting Tybura to handle him and win the day here.
Winner: Marcin Tybura, Decision
Robert Winfree: I’m going to say this more than once about fights on this card, but I just hope it ends quickly. Timothy Johnson has the UFC experience, though he’s just 1-1 and made some bad decisions when fighting Jared Rosholt that potentially cost him the fight, and Marcin Tybura is making his UFC debut. Tybura could be a top level prospect that we’ve just never heard of, but I’m going with Johnson based on currently known elements.
Winner: Timothy Johnson, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Let’s just acknowledge this is not the strongest main card UFC has ever put together. This fight will be a battle for top position. Timothy Johnson is a big heavyweight that prefers to get on top of guys and clobber them, while Tybura likes working on top for submissions or strikes. I’m not sure who to favor here, but the newcomer has a bit more noise surrounding him, so I’ll pick him here.
Winner: Tybura, Decision
The staff picks Marcin Tybura, 2-1.
Heavyweight Bout: Francis Ngannou vs. Curtis Blaydes
Jeffrey Harris: Ngannou faces the debuting Curtis Blaydes in this heavyweight focused main card. It’s hard to break down this fight as both fighters are still fairly inexperienced and new to the UFC. Ngannou was successful in his Octagon debut, knocking out Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira. Blaydes is undefeated at 5-0 and previously fought in RFA. This fight’s a bit of a tossup here, but I’m leaning toward Ngannou.
Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Well, again let’s hope it’s just over fast. There’s a serious theme of low level heavyweights going on here. Francis Ngannou is a big man and had an impressive UFC debut, the UFC will likely try to bring him along slowly and hope he pans out as a top shelf heavyweight unlike say Cheick Kongo. Curtis Blaydes is another debutante here, and both men are relatively unknown but I’m leaning towards Ngannou.
Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Curtis Blaydes is a badass name. I’m ready to make my pick on that alone, but let’s briefly talk about the matchup for formality’s sake. Blaydes is a very big, athletic wrestler who has finished all five of his fights. Ngannou is another big, athletic heavyweight with power. However, in his last fight, the grappling of Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira controlled him early on. For that reason, and because his name is Blaydes, I’m picking Blaydes.
Winner: Blaydes, Decision
The staff picks Francis Ngannou, 2-1.
Heavyweight Bout: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis
Jeffrey Harris: Hopefully this fight will end early. Derrick Lewis is very powerful and dangerous. Gabriel Gonzaga is very experienced. He has some deadly kicks and grappling. However, the blueprint to beat him is very simple. Gonzaga never responds well to aggression. He wilts under pressure. That’s been the story with him his entire career. Lewis is a pretty aggressive heavyweight. His cardio isn’t great, but if he can bring that big lumbering power to Gonzaga quickly, he will stop him.
Winner: Derrick Lewis
Robert Winfree: If this goes long it’s going to get ugly. Gabriel Gonzaga got a title shot years ago when the division was horribly weak, but recently he’s been performing badly. In fact Gonzaga just barely broke a three fight losing streak, and did so in the worst fight of 2015. Derrick Lewis is moving up in the world being 3-1 in his last four to Gonzaga’s 1-3 and Lewis has won his last two in a row. Lewis hits really hard and is an aggressive fighter, Gonzaga has impressive jiujitsu skills but his game is reliant on top position and his chin is a little suspect. Gonzaga has also flaked mentally in the past, given that and the power that Lewis brings I’m favoring him but if this hits the mat Gonzaga will have a massive advantage.
Winner: Derrick Lewis, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Gabriel Gonzaga can absolutely handle Derrick Lewis on the ground, but I don’t think he’ll have an easy time getting him there. Gonzaga is 36 and slipping, while Lewis is in his prime and has massive power. “The Black Beast” is the clear favorite.
Winner: Lewis, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Derrick Lewis, 3-0.
Heavyweight Bout: Ben Rothwell vs. Junior dos Santos
Jeffrey Harris: Is it crazy that I’m actually leaning toward Ben Rothwell and picking him to win here? Well the fighter with more momentum for this fight is Ben Rothwell who has really improved by leaps and bounds in recent years. He’s actually become a formidable force for the heavyweight division. Arguably, he’s in the title mix right now. However, with a win over Cigano here, he could cement his contender status. But the other reason I’m leaning toward Rothwell is that JDS has looked like his career’s been on its downside lately. It’s not that JDS is bad, but it looks like the wear and tear of the numerous five-round wars he’s been in have taken their toll. He just hasn’t looked as sharp and powerful as he did in the prime of his career. At his peak, I would say Junior dos Santos is one of the best traditional boxers in the history of MMA. However, lately, it looks like he’s slowed down. Now maybe Dos Santos was just on a bad run, and he will look sharper and more prepared here. But the other reason I like Rothwell is that he’s really expanded his grappling and submission game. He submitted Josh Barnett of all people, which no one really expected. Rothwell’s striking game isn’t exceptional, but he does have knockout power too. As crazy as it may have sounded some time ago, I’m picking Rothwell to pull out another win here.
Winner: Ben Rothwell, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: This is the only heavyweight fight on this card that shouldn’t fall apart if we go past the first round. Ben Rothwell has been surging recently, he submitted Josh Barnett and Matt Mitrione plus knocked out Alistair Overeem and is on a four fight winning streak. Rothwell is a brawler in the striking department and has developed a wicked choke that he can grab in transition, though off of his back he’s still not great he’s become more difficult to take down. Junior dos Santos got knocked out by Alistair Overeem and has been trading wins and losses since his first loss to Cain Velasquez. Dos Santos has fast hands and is the technically superior striker but the accumulated damage from three fights with Velasquez, a five round war with Stipe Miocic, and the rest is just starting to get to him. Dos Santos has ways to win this, if he’s able to pull the trigger Rothwell’s lack of defense is exploitable but current trends being what they are Rothwell is surging while dos Santos is falling. A couple of years ago picking Rothwell over dos Santos would be laughable, but that’s where we are right now.
Winner: Ben Rothwell, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: This is such a strange fight. Can you imagine people picking Ben Rothwell to beat Junior dos Santos a few years ago? I’m not clear on exactly where dos Santos stands at this stage in his career, but it’s certainly well below his previous spot. He’s taken tremendous punishment since 2012 and he’s much slower than his old self. While I can see him beating Ben Rothwell and am in no way sure in the pick, I’m more confident in 2016 Ben Rothwell than I am in 2016 Junior dos Santos.
Winner: Ben Rothwell, Submission, Round 3
The staff picks Ben Rothwell, 3-0.
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