mma / Columns

Alvarez vs. McGregor Won’t Decide the World’s Best Lightweight

October 31, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

For at least the next couple of weeks, the UFC 94 super fight between Georges St-Pierre and BJ Penn will stand as one of the most unique fights in MMA history. It was champion vs. champion, but was so much more than only that. Where it differs from the upcoming Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor champion vs. champion bout is in the perception of the combatants relative to their peers. At welterweight, St-Pierre was peerless. Even just two years removed from his stunning upset loss to Matt Serra, the feeling was that on his best day, St-Pierre would cruise past anyone in the division. Similarly, at the time Penn was considered to be the best version of himself and fighting to his potential; he couldn’t be touched at lightweight, so the move to fight St-Pierre made sense.

The force that pushed together Alvarez vs. McGregor – money – is virtually the same force that the brought St-Pierre and Penn together again in 2009, but from a sporting view the matches are quite different. Although holds the division’s championship, Alvarez likely is not the best lightweight in the world. He is in the elite mix and could beat any other lightweight on any given day, but in some cases, he wouldn’t be favored to do so. McGregor, who holds the 145-pounds title, could well be the best featherweight in the world. He stopped top contenders and then obliterated the best featherweight there ever was in seconds. However, since that point, he’s abandoned his post for greater riches and interesting challenges have accumulated in his wake.

Whoever wins between Alvarez and McGregor – a major, historic fight on a historic night in a historic building – will gain a major feather in their cap as far as legacy, but they won’t automatically be the best lightweight in the world. That will take some time and more fights to figure out. The first fight in the series takes place this weekend, almost ignored thanks to the gravitational pull of the more enchanting title bout taking place one week later.

Rafael dos Anjos might be the best lightweight in the world. A strong contingent thought of him as such before he met Alvarez in July. He had proved himself as a top lightweight by stopping former champion Benson Henderson and then dominating Nate Diaz prior to challenging for the title in March 2015. World champion Anthony Pettis, who could and had ended fights in the blink of an eye, figured to halt dos Anjos’ upward mobility. Instead, dos Anjos won from bell to bell, round by round. By the time he finished his first title defense that December, making easy work of Donald Cerrone, dos Anjos stock was through the roof.

Heading into his second title defense against Eddie Alvarez, dos Anjos appeared to be destined to hold the title high at least until a rematch with Khabib Nurmagomedov, who handed him a decisive loss in April 2014. He was a major favorite to defeat Alvarez, but an Alvarez overhand right turned the tables. Dos Anjos didn’t recover, and was forced to surrender the lightweight title before the first round ended.

Now dos Anjos needs a major victory to push himself back into title contention, and he’ll have a chance to do that on Saturday against Tony Ferguson. Ferguson is riding an 8 fight win streak, the second-longest winning streak in UFC history that hasn’t resulted in a title shot, and will need to defeat dos Anjos in order to prove that he is the best lightweight in the world.

The winner of season 13 of The Ultimate Fighter, Ferguson showed promise on the reality competition by finishing all of his opponents, but he didn’t leave the show with the level of hype that some other TUF winners had had bestowed upon them. Accordingly, Ferguson’s ascent was relatively quiet until it became undeniable following back-to-back victories against Josh Thomson and Edson Barboza.

Ferguson’s standing in the division slipped a bit with his performance against Lando Vannata, whose casually absurd striking can make opponents look silly. However, Ferguson did what great fighters do when adversity is thrown unexpectedly upon them: he recovered and won. If not the best lightweight in the world, he’s at least one of the toughest.

Saturday’s battle between dos Anjos and Ferguson is just the first step in determining the world’s best lightweight. The following weekend, in the hours before Alvarez and McGregor duel, Khabib Nurmagomedov will fight Michael Johnson in Madison Square Garden. The 23-0 Nurmagomedov is a strong candidate for the role, and is likely to get a championship match if he defeats Johnson. Outside of the immediate title picture are Edson Barboza, Michael Chiesa, and Donald Cerrone, who has been so successful a weight class up that he could make welterweight his permanent home.

Although Alvarez vs. McGregor will go down in history and either reaffirm the current champion or crown a new one, it is just one of a number of fights that will be needed to determine the best lightweight in the world. Perhaps Alvarez or McGregor is the best, but it will take time beyond November 12 to prove that.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.