Bendo Brings Value to the Free Agent Market

If Benson Henderson ever said he wasn’t a gambling man, you shouldn’t believe him given his actions in 2015.

In January, he had no qualms when Donald Cerrone stepped in for Eddie Alvarez to fight Henderson on two weeks’ notice. Thirteen days after dropping a close decision to Cerrone, Henderson agreed to jump up 15 pounds to fight Brandon Tatch two weeks later. Strikingly outsized, Henderson wore out a game Thatch before submitting him in the later rounds. It was Henderson’s second-to-last fight remaining on his contract with the UFC, but he turned down an extension with the world’s leading MMA promotion, curious to see his value on the open market. That value could vary significantly depending on the result of the final fight on his deal, which he agreed would be against Thiago Alves in another welterweight contest. Two weeks before the fight, Alves pulled out due to injury, and the card was shuffled to move Jorge Masvidal up to a main event match with Henderson. The fight was close and hard-fought throughout, with the judges split on a winner. A major portion of Henderson’s free agency gamble came down to how one judge scored the close bout from his specific ringside view. 49-46 Henderson, value saved. But before we know if the gamble paid off, we have to wait for the dice to land.

There should be three major suitors for Henderson’s services, and potentially a fourth. The first is his current employer, the Ultimate Fighting Championship, which needs names like Henderson’s to top a couple of the 40-something events it runs each year. Another is Bellator MMA, which is aiming to add more “tent pole” events to its yearly schedule but lacks the star power to do so effectively. Then there is One Championship, a company that has drawn some big audiences throughout Asia and apparently has strong financial backing. Finally, World Series of Fighting, which has had trouble finding an audience on NBC Sports Network, lurks in the background.

Henderson brings a unique value that would stand to benefit any of the three companies. Although he was never a major superstar as an attraction, he has good name value. His February fight with Thatch drew slightly above average numbers for the UFC on Fox Sports 1 despite a lack of strong undercard support. Henderson’s 2014 headlining numbers were a mixed bag; his Fox match Josh Thomson performed above average, an FS1 bout against Rustam Khabilov did very strong numbers, and another FS1 fight against Rafael dos Anjos came in well below average. However, even with the weak number against Dos Anjos, Henderson has clear value as a television attraction in the United States. On Saturday, Henderson, whose mother is Korean, was popular with the crowd in Soul, South Korea, an area One Championship has yet to explore.

In addition, Henderson is willing and able to compete in two weight classes: welterweight and lightweight, and has shown an eagerness to enter fights on short notice and accept replacement opponents on short notice. Henderson will never be a big superstar to build a promotion around, but he’s a dependable fighter and draw that affords promotions the flexibility to use him in different weight classes. He also holds the weight of being a former UFC champion, losing his title only two years ago, and he’s still near the top of his game.

For the UFC, Henderson is another name in the field that can fit nicely as a headliner on Fox Sports 1 and a valuable piece to capturing the South Korean market, if they are inclined to do so. He is not the marketable top guy the UFC likes to feature, but he’s solid and proven. Although his fighting style isn’t one that the UFC typically fawns over, he’s been involved in a number of excellent fights in his seven years with Zuffa. Henderson certainly brings something to the UFC table, but if he receives a major offer elsewhere, he is not the type of talent the UFC would overpay for. The UFC matched an offer Bellator made to Gilbert Melendez in early 2014 when he was on the cusp of a title shot. Earlier this year, they watched top-ten light heavyweight Phil Davis head to Bellator without any noticeable regret. Whereas Henderson is a more proven draw than either of them, in terms of career trajectory he’s closer to Davis, who was nowhere near a title shot, than Melendez, who immediately challenged for the lightweight title after signing his new UFC deal.

Bellator’s willingness to shell out the cash for Phil Davis, who had lost two of his previous three fights when he signed the contract and only headlined two UFC events, indicates they would have significant interest in Henderson. At welterweight, Henderson is a big name to challenge reigning champion Andrey Koreshkov and matches with Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley would draw well. At lightweight, Henderson adds a lot of juice and a sense of legitimacy to the division. Matches with champion Will Brooks and top challenger Michael Chandler are very compelling, and if they were to defeat Henderson, more fans would look at them as on par with the UFC’s top lightweights.

One Championship is in need of opponents for Ben Askren, who with one exception has dominated everyone he has fought in the past few years. Henderson can more than fit that bill, and he’s also a great opponent for lightweight champion Shinya Aoki. It’s trickier to determine Henderson’s value to One because he has an unproven record as an attraction in Asia, but being a former UFC champion at or near the top of his game holds weight, and his most recent match in South Korea could be used as a launching point for him in that area.

World Series of Fighting doesn’t appear to have the promotional juice to squeeze as much value out of Henderson as the others, but he could certainly benefit the company. Matches with lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, and welterweights Jon Fitch and Jake Shields are all compelling and would likely draw some of the biggest numbers the promotion has ever done. The major factor is whether World Series of Fighting has the revenue streams to get a return on a relatively expensive fighter like Henderson.

Given that One hasn’t yet signed any big name free agents from the UFC and World Series of Fighting hasn’t beaten the two big dogs in a bidding war for talent, the most likely future homes for Henderson are either the UFC or Bellator. For Henderson, there is likely more earning potential in the UFC, but to reach the highest potential he’ll need get back into the title picture. In Bellator, he’d immediately land in the title picture and he’d have the added benefit of handling his own sponsors.

It’s impossible to say where he will land without any knowledge of the offers, but Henderson is the rare fighter that comes into free agency that holds legitimate value for virtually every suitor. If his gambles throughout the year hadn’t paid off, that wouldn’t be the case.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.