Cain Velasquez, Please Step Away from the Title Shot

Damn, UFC. You sure know how to ruin our fun.

Last week, I talked about the road that lies ahead for recently crowned UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum. The man has had quite a journey on his way to the top; starting with a decent if unspectacular run in Pride; coming within a win of a UFC title shot in 2008 before getting knocked out of the company by some punk kid named Junior dos Santos; blowing people’s minds in Strikeforce by submitting Fedor Emelianenko (before losing an unbelievably bad fight against Alistair Overeem); and marching back into the UFC, where he knocked off ranked fighters for two years as the top contender before finally getting his chance to become champion, which he did in June at UFC 188.

The timing of Werdum’s title win couldn’t be any better, as there’s a lot of activity going on in the heavyweight division, producing a number of fighters who could all believably be slotted to face the new champion. There’s Andrei Arlovski, who knocked out Travis Browne in his last fight and looks the best he has since he ruled the division a decade ago. There’s Stipe Miocic, who brutalized Mark Hunt, the man Werdum bested to become interim champion last year. Frank Mir’s even an option after his back-to-back knockouts of Antonio Silva and Todd Duffee.

Hell, Overeem can be added to the title conversation (if you’re bored enough), or, if UFC signs him, a rematch with Fedor would be one of the biggest spectacles UFC can put together (that’s my favorite option, in case you couldn’t tell). Plus, dos Santos is still hanging around, waiting for his shot, or at least I think he is. I mean, what else has he been doing for the last 8 months?

But no. None of that sounded good to Dana White, as it was announced last Wednesday that Werdum’s next fight and first title defense will be against…Cain Velasquez. Again.

And here I was thinking that UFC was all about booking fights that people actually wanted to see.

In general, I’m not a fan of immediate championship rematches but I will agree with three instances where they can be considered acceptable. The first is in the case of a controversial decision, where there is doubt that the fighter who was awarded the decision actually won the fight, like with Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun Rua at UFC 104. If we can’t agree that the judges got it right and the general consensus is unclear as to whom the rightful champion should be, then it makes sense to book a rematch and hope for a more definitive conclusion.

The second instance is when a long-term champion has finally been defeated, like Anderson Silva. I still don’t feel Silva completely deserved a rematch after Chris Weidman knocked him out at UFC 162 but he had been so dominant for so long that he’d earned the right to try and regain his belt off respect alone. We didn’t mind that just like most of us wouldn’t mind the idea of Georges St-Pierre or Jon Jones getting immediate title shots if either returns to the sport.

The Velasquez rematch is an interesting fight but it doesn’t satisfy either of those two cases. It fails the first one because there was nothing controversial about the outcome of the first fight. Werdum beat up Cain and choked him out inside of three rounds. You could say there was controversy regarding the elevation of Mexico City, where the fight took place, and how little time Cain had to acclimate to it compared to Werdum, but there’s nothing controversial about that. Werdum was smart and took all factors into consideration when preparing for the fight, while Cain was unwilling to sacrifice seeing his family so he could properly train at altitude. That’s all on Cain and he paid for it on fight night.

I also feel the fight fails the second case too, as, while he had been champion for two-and-a-half years (plus another year during his first reign), he spent most of that time as an absentee champion, only defending the title twice before losing to Werdum. Yes, he was dominant against most of the weight class but it never really seemed to amount to much when it was a privilege just to see him fight once a year. He didn’t even fight in 2014. How am I supposed to care and respect the man as a champion when he’s barely around to defend his title? Werdum beating Cain was the best thing to happen to the division because now the division can finally move forward without getting interrupted by the champion’s yearly injury.

That leads to the third case where an immediate rematch is acceptable: if the fans want it. This isn’t just true of rematches but all fights, title or non-title, as UFC has proven this year, booking fights that the fans have asked for or booking on the basis on what will generate the most interest from the fanbase at large. That’s why Luke Rockhold is getting a title shot over “Jacare” Souza. That’s why Alexander Gustaffson is getting a title shot over Ryan Bader. That’s why Carlos Condit is getting a title shot over Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley. That’s why Conor McGregor. Yes, there are other variables at play but the main consideration has been this: if the fans want it, or if the UFC thinks the fans want it, then it’s happening this year.

That’s what makes the booking of Werdum-Velasquez odd, as the reaction from the fanbase has been very negative since it was announced. Many fans have gone on social media to say the same thing: Velasquez doesn’t deserve an immediate rematch and there are other more interesting options on the table right now. Sure, the argument can be made that the rematch will be a more competitive fight than any of the others, although we can’t say that with 100% certainty, but, if most people aren’t interested in seeing the fight, promises of an instant classic that we all know may end up sucking eggs won’t be enough to change anyone’s mind, especially since Cain has never been much of a Payperview draw to begin with.

This all then begs the question: why is UFC booking this fight? My guess is that UFC is looking to hold another event in Mexico and they want to feature Cain. They could book him in any fight down there and it will sell but he’s more valuable in growing and expanding that market if he’s champion so they want to give him another chance to get the belt back, hopefully in a city where he can actually breathe. Either that or it’s just an easy story to tell that doesn’t require much effort to promote and will, in theory, make a lot of money, even though I think they can make more from a Werdum-dos Santos rematch or a well-promoted clash with Arlovski or Mir, fighters who are older and lower ranked but have name value with casual fans.

Oh well. If this is the fight that UFC is going with, then I can’t be too upset. Even if there are other fighters I’d rather see get the next shot, the rematch with Velasquez should be a good fight. That’s assuming, of course, that Cain is ready to fight again within the next 18 months.

And if he’s not? Well, he can always try one of those off-brand Viagra substitutes they sell in Thailand. You know, the ones they sell in blue vials to guys you’ve only known for about a year but feel you can trust because you talked to him about “man stuff” that one time? He seems pretty legit.

…too soon?

Evan Zivin has been writing for 411 MMA since May of 2013. Evan loves the sport, and likes to takes a lighthearted look at the world of MMA in his writing…usually.