Can Conor McGregor win the Nate Diaz Rematch?

It is set in stone. One of the most unnecessary, yet, biggest rematches of modern mixed martial arts time is scheduled to take place July 9th at UFC 200. Conor McGregor will try to get back his loss. He will step into the octagon and conservatively pounce on Nate Diaz. He will hope that by finding a steady pace and his timing he can beat on one of Stockton’s bad boys for five rounds or until “the fat skinny man” hits the canvas.

At UFC 196 the Irishman came out guns blazing, whaling all he had into his punches, and to his surprise, his foe took it with stride. Diaz ate some hard punches and rolled with many more, slightly diminishing the effectiveness of McGregor’s power. By the halfway mark of the second round McGregor was praying for more gas and Diaz was just turning it on. What McGregor learned that night was more than you must pace yourself with the bigger man because he can take more punishment. Ultimately, he learned that when you step into the cage to fight a world class fighter and you can’t stop or break the man opposite of you early, the fight turns into a war and it becomes more about survival.

McGregor was handily defeated by Diaz, and under normal circumstances, such a defeat wouldn’t warrant an immediate rematch. In fact, McGregor would have been wise to win a fight or two before setting up a rematch at 155-pounds, not 170, with the man who soundly broke his undefeated UFC record. The brash Irishman apparently obsessed over making the rematch happen and you have to wonder if this is a mistake on his part. It is one thing to be obsessed with training and improving, but it is another ball game when you push everything aside and become obsessed with trying to prove your loss was a fluke.

McGregor was humbled but you have to believe Diaz is now in his head and he desperately wants him out. He wants his mystique back and he wants to show the world that the No. 5 lightweight is no match for him at 170-pounds. Can he do it this time around? McGregor will have to acknowledge a few things first.

He will not be able to rely on psychological warfare to begin the process of breaking his opponent. Diaz has the perfect attitude to counter McGregor’s brash verbal onslaught. If anyone looked bothered by the trash talk and stare downs it was Conor McGregor—steroid accusations, touch-butt, slapping the hand away with a closed fist, etc. McGregor will verbally attack again but he must be ready for the counters and his attacks cannot seem contrived.

McGregor will also have to contend with the fact Diaz will have a full training camp this time around. Diaz isn’t coming off a party boat in Mexico for this one and he has added confidence and an idea on how approach the fight. Diaz will be able to train to tailor his game towards McGregor’s style and he’ll be able spar with fighters mimicking the Irishman’s game. This will be a more prepared Nate Diaz. McGregor will have to worry more about reach now than in the fight before. Diaz will likely settle quicker and use his reach more effectively to keep McGregor at range.

The game will change for this fight, but this is not to say McGregor has no chance to win. At UFC 196 the Irishman was able to connect with big shots. Diaz absorbed some and rolled with others. This ate away at McGregor’s power and slowly but surely he was left with nothing effective. McGregor will have to wait and pick his shots as Diaz inches forward. He must play the counter game (a facet of the game he is good at employing), use his kicks to set up his left hand, and actually use his right hand more often unlike in the first bout. If he can do this, he can out point Diaz, or put him away in the later rounds. He must also avoid the ground. Albeit, I don’t believe McGregor’s jiu jitsu is as bad as people make it out to be (he does train with Gunnar Nelson), it is nowhere near as good as Diaz’s and a little over 3 months is not enough time to make you a world class submission grappler.

Conor McGregor must stick to what he knows and does best. He will not have enough time to obsess over his ground game to make a huge difference and we have to remember he was submitted because he was broke and beat. He can get it done without a doubt. But the job will likely be much more difficult. This is not Dustin Poirier, Dennis Siver, an out shape Chad Mendes, or a rushing-in Jose Aldo. This is a top 155er and most of the top 155-pounders are a class above the top featherweights.

Maybe, McGregor is biting off more than he can chew, or maybe not. I do question if this is the right move for his career. If he wins it was brilliant and he gets his loss back along with some of that mystique; however, if he loses again or Diaz hangs with him for five close rounds, his mystique crumbles some more. Then you have too question his ability to hang with the top five lightweights, and as far as welterweight is concerned, no way. Finally, defending your featherweight strap on a two fight losing skid doesn’t seem too elite. McGregor can win this fight without question. But, setting everything aside to avenge a loss that could have waited seems like a mistake. We’ve find out July 9th.