Final Countdown to UFC 205

Just shy of 20 years ago, UFC was forced to escape New York in the middle of the night, migrating down south to Dothan, Alabama, at the last minute before a show for a friendlier host. In the 20 years that followed, especially 2008 onward, the UFC fought for the right to hold events in New York, which outlawed the sport shortly after the midnight flight.

Saturday, UFC returns to New York State for the first time since 1995, when a dull Ken Shamrock-Oleg Taktarov 33-minute draw headlined in Buffalo. For a brief period between the Buffalo show and the eventual ban, mixed martial arts competition, as we now call it, was formally legalized in New York. Cautious of the state’s political landmines, they planned a slow immersion into the state. First, they’d hold a card in Niagara Falls, then perhaps Buffalo again or Long Island. Then-UFC owners SEG figured they needed to build a good track record in the state before moving into Manhattan. Needless to say, it became a slower immersion than they initially hoped, but it set the promotion, now under its fourth ownership group, up for what may turn into the biggest show in mixed martial arts history.

The history-making show is outfitted with a historic card. The main event features the sport’s biggest drawing attraction, featherweight champion Conor McGregor, challenging lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez. McGregor, only about three-and-a-half years removed from his company debut, could be UFC’s first double champion, or he could falter for the second time in a calendar year. For the first time in 15 years, the promotion is running three title matches on the show. Underneath the main event, Tyron Woodley defends the welterweight title against Stephen Thompson, and strawweight champ Joanna Jędrzejczyk meets fellow Pole Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Beneath the title matches, the card is littered with former champions and active top contenders, with viable main event fighters among them that have headlined some of the biggest shows in UFC history.

The card is set to break Madison Square Garden’s all-time gate record of $13.5 million. It will comfortably surpass UFC’s current gate record holder, 2011’s UFC 129 in Toronto, and it will roughly double the biggest gate Pride FC ever did. The key is that both the current UFC record show and the Pride record show were stadium shows with 55,000 and 71,000 in attendance respectively. UFC 205 from Madison Square Garden will likely have a touch under 20,000 in the building, which speaks to the high prices the combined forces of this show can command.

On pay-per-view, the show has a realistic shot of breaking UFC’s all-time record – a record that by some accounts they have already broken twice this year. Whether or not it breaks the pay-per-view record will be determined in the final days before the show, when most purchasing decisions are made. In theory, media coverage for the event should be among the highest for any UFC event ever, although it may be hurt by a focus on the presidential election. However, as McGregor’s fight with Diaz in August showed, a last-minute attention-grabbing event could take a show over the hump.

Regardless of whether certain metrics will determine it to be the biggest show of all-time, it’s a show that will go down in history because of both its main event and the depth of the card.

Alvarez vs. McGregor is not going to determine the best lightweight in the world, but it’s a superfight in which the winner will walk away with the most prestigious lightweight championship in existence. Should he win, McGregor’s double champion status would be little more than ceremonial if he never makes a trip back down to featherweight, but it will still add a unique layer to his legacy.

McGregor has already shown a tremendous ability to bounce back from a loss earlier this year. His March bout with Diaz went against everything McGregor preached in endless promos, but he prevented the loss from being a devastating one by controlling the narrative as much as possible and eking out a win in the rematch. Today, he may be no worse off than he’d be had he won that fight. However, a loss to Alvarez could be problematic in ways that the Diaz loss wasn’t.

As each day has passed since December 12, 2015, McGregor’s return to featherweight has looked increasingly unlikely. Whereas he looked gaunt and sunken at the weigh-ins on December 11, he appeared healthy on the scales for two bouts at 170-pounds against Diaz. McGregor already had a tough time making 145-pounds when he was regularly fighting there, but for the past year, he’s been trying to build his frame for 155-pound and 170-pound contests. If McGregor loses to Alvarez, a return to featherweight seems natural, but making the weight should be more difficult for him than ever before.

An inability to make 145-pounds would mean that with a loss to Alvarez, McGregor would inevitable have to relinquish his featherweight belt. In this scenario, he would lose the championship bargaining chip, and would have suffered two defeats in three fights. Even for someone as charismatic and talented as McGregor, that’s tough to come back from. Of course, there are different levels of losses, and some levels wouldn’t be too tough for him to bounce back from, particularly with the Diaz rubber match waiting for him.

For Alvarez, McGregor is a bigger fight than he could have ever dreamed for himself. A win will mean everything to Alvarez’s career and legacy. Describing a fighter as a lucky champion is inadequate because to get to that point a fighter must succeed at a vast number of points due to their skill, and Alvarez in particular has gritted his way through the toughest of fights. However, he’s certainly had lucky breaks.

He finished his Bellator run as champion thanks to a decision win that many thought should have went the other way. His arrived at his UFC title shot after two close decision victories that the three judges scoring at cageside didn’t entirely agree on. When he challenged for the title, he was a significant underdog, but his punching ability bucked the odds.

Alvarez is in line for the biggest payday of his career by a significant margin, and a win in the biggest fight of his life will pay dividends for years to come. It will mean more high profile matches, more title fights, and perhaps even a rematch.

A loss will drop him back into the pack of a vicious lightweight division. That’s not a spot he won’t be able to succeed in, but it takes a supremely special fighter to make it out of the thick of that division without hard-fought wins and some tough losses. It’s possible that if he drops back into that spot, he’ll never again rise to the top, and he doesn’t quite have the name value to command big main event non-title fights, which McGregor does.

Although it will affect his legacy, the result of Saturday’s fight likely won’t significantly change Conor McGregor’s lifestyle. For Eddie Alvarez, the result could change his life.

The remainder of card is filled with big names and high stakes.

Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson fight not just for the welterweight title, but also for a lottery ticket with the potential to hit the jackpot with a fight against Georges St-Pierre. Joanna Jędrzejczyk has another big show opportunity to become a real star when she faces Karolina Kowalkiewicz in what may be the night’s most violent fight. Former champions Chris Weidman, Miesha Tate, and Frankie Edgar need to rebound strong from losses to remain relevant in their respective divisional title pictures. Meanwhile, their opponents aim to get a step closer to first-time championship glory. Donald Cerrone could find himself close to a welterweight championship match with a win against Kelvin Gastelum. Khabib Nurmagomedov needs to put on the performance of a lifetime to wrestle the attention away from Tony Ferguson’s win over Rafael dos Anjos this past weekend and earn the next lightweight title opportunity. Almost hidden on the undercard, former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans needs to show something in his middleweight debut against Tim Kennedy in order to keep his career alive.

UFC 205 is the best card in MMA history with major stakes from top to bottom. There won’t be any court battles going down to the wire, and no last-minute trips to Dothan, Alabama. UFC New York is here, and it carries a card that makes up for a 21-year dry spell.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.