mma / Columns

JDS vs. Miocic II: The Current Heavyweight Dilemma

January 28, 2017 | Posted by Jeffrey Harris

The current scuttlebutt for UFC 2011 is that Junior dos Santos will face champion Stipe Miocic in a heavyweight title rematch. The two previously fought in the main event at UFC on FOX 13, which JDS won by a unanimous decision, but it was very tough fight where Miocic more than held his own. The fight was arguably a lot closer than the scorecards would indicate. Considering the current state of the UFC heavyweight division, a title rematch between Cigano and Miocic is really the best title fight the UFC can make at heavyweight right now.

Unfortunately, the UFC heavyweight division is going through some pains right now. The heavyweight division is growing thinner and thinner. It’s not a stacked, talent-rich division. Right now, there’s very little in the way of new young, fresh faces and potential prospects outside of a few.

Let’s evaluate the top contenders right now outside of Miocic in the top five rankings. Fabricio Werdum is No. 1. He’s the former champion who had a great run since his UFC return and that peaked with a heavyweight title win over Cain Velasquez, which happened in Mexico City. However, Werdum then lost the title in his first defense. Werdum has been outspoken in his campaign for a title rematch, but the man didn’t lose a questionable decision or a close fight. He was put away with strikes in the first round. Not only that, Werdum is pushing 40. Could Werdum fight well past 40? Yes, he could. But fighters being able to do it as successfully as Dan Henderson and Randy Couture did is pretty rare. At No. 2 is the former two-time champion in Cain Velasquez. Velasquez’s career has been sidelined on multiple occasions due to debilitating injuries. His long-awaited rematch with Werdum fell apart due to suffering from another back injury. Velasquez fighting more than once in a calendar year would be an absolute miracle at this point. One has to wonder if Velasquez’s body is no longer able to withhold the rigors of heavy MMA training. Velasquez is undoubtedly a beast in the cage, but it seems like his body is starting to break down at an alarming rate. Velasquez vs. Miocic would certainly be an interesting match-up, but would Velasquez even be able to make it to the fight and stay reasonably healthy? At No. 3 is Alistair Overeem. He finally received his first heavyweight title fight last September against Miocic. Despite a strong submission attempt, Miocic was able to get out of it and ultimately won the fight by way of knockout. Overeem is currently scheduled to face Hunt at UFC 209 in March. Previously, Overeem submitted Hunt in 2008 in the now-defunct Dream promotion. Overeem is 36 years old, and he’s had over 55 professional MMA fights. That doesn’t include his fights for his pro kickboxing career. Arguably, Overeem is pretty old in the sport and has been around forever. He very well could fight well up to 40 and maybe even beyond that, but he has less years left in the sport than what he’s put in.

At No. 4 is the prospective contender Junior dos Santos, another former champion. Dos Santos is not yet 33, but he’s been through quite a few wars and beatings throughout his 22-fight career. That includes two one-sided, five-round beatdowns by Cain Velasquez for the title. Dos Santos certainly had a pretty epic run when he came into the UFC by storm, knocking out a prospective contender in Fabricio Werdum in about 90 seconds. He continued that run to win the heavyweight title and then knocked out another former champion, Frank Mir. However, he ultimately lost his trilogy with Velasquez in their subsequent rematches.

The good news is that if JDS and Miocic do have a rematch, it has a ton going for it. JDS is the last man to beat Miocic in the UFC. Since that time, Miocic went on a tear and became champion. JDS on the other hand has been a bit hit and miss with his performances. However, he did look like he completely turned back the look and looked better than he has in a long time when he faced Ben Rothwell in his last fight out. It seemed lately JDS was lacking quite a bit in his defense. JDS used to be one of the better boxers for heavyweight. However, in his recent fights, it looked like he didn’t care if his opponents were hitting him. That certainly took its toll. Granted, he looked a lot sharper against Rothwell. JDS and Miocic, though, is a pretty intense and competitive fight. Both men have great boxing and heavy hands. Miocic has improved a lot in his recent outings in letting his hands go and showing how dangerous he can be standing up. One would imagine that Miocic wants to get back a win over JDS considering how he believes he won their first fight. Their first fight was also very back and forth and competitive for five rounds. This fight would also be five rounds, and the title would be on the line to sweeten the pot. Miocic looks someone who got a lot better because of his fight with JDS, while JDS has been back and forth with wins and losses lately. So, this is a case where the rematch is sensible and could produce an equally great follow-up.

But going down the list at heavyweight, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of promising new faces. Andrei Arlovski, another former champion who fights this weekend, is down 0-3 in his current UFC run. Arlovski is another old dog in this sport at 37 and arguably can’t have that much more time in the sport either. Mark Hunt, his current legal issues with the UFC aside, is 42 and the man has taken a lot of punishment throughout his career. Now, I don’t want to make too many assumptions on how much longer Hunt can and will fight for. Hunt’s MMA career has really defied all logic already. But Hunt is another longtime veteran who you can’t imagine being the face of the division for another several years.

The two most promising contenders in the top 10 at heavyweight right now are really Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. Ngannou could potentially rise even higher with an impressive win over Arlovski this weekend. Ngannou is probably the most promising new face at heavyweight the UFC has seen for a while. The man hits hard, he’s finishing his fights and he has deadly grappling skills as well. Granted, he’s generally moved up the ladder fighting impressive competition, and now he faces an experienced veteran and former champion in Arlovski. Ngannou is 30 years old, so he’s not like a young, fresh-faced rookie. However, he is really the best and most promising “young” prospect of the heavyweight division right now. Now, it’s just a question of how will he do against higher level competition against the older and more experienced veterans. I think one thing Ngannou has going for him is that there aren’t a lot of tough, young studs filling up the division like there is at lightweight, welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight. Ngannou would arguably have the easiest path of any contender to the title at any division in the UFC. By comparison, the likes of Tony Ferguson and Max Holloway had to win nine fights or so to be booked into UFC title fights. If Ngannou continues his rise, that likely won’t be the case for him.

Ranked No. 8 at heavyweight and on a five-fight winning streak is Derrick Lewis. Lewis has also made a decent prospect of himself after putting together an 8-2 UFC record. Lewis might not be the most technical MMA fighter. He tends to get taken down a lot. However, he’s also very scrappy and resilient. Even against opponents who try to take him down and grind him, Lewis tends to find a way to ultimately get out of trouble and win the fight. Case in point, watch his fights against Roy Nelson, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Viktor Pesta. Lewis has undeniably done very well for himself lately, and now he’s set to face No. 9-ranked Travis Browne for his next outing. It’s actually a pretty great matchup and a big test against a big opponent for Lewis. The unfortunate thing is that Browne has been in quite the slump lately, and he’s never really looked as good as he did previously since he left Greg Jackson’s camp.

So, really the two potential future contenders at heavyweight right now are really Francis Ngannou (age 30) and Derrick Lewis (age 31). Don’t get me wrong, they are good fighters. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ngannou finds himself in a title eliminator or title fight in around a year or so. However, the dilemma is that there isn’t enough new blood coming in at heavyweight right now. Now to be clear, I’m not saying heavyweight is going the way of the dodo. But further up the top, it’s a lot of guys who are getting older and their bodies have been through a lot. It’d be nice if there were more newer, up-and-coming faces like Francis Ngannou. But with the dearth of talent the division faces, it could become a growing issue very soon.

Jeffrey Harris is 411mania’s resident Jack of All Trades and has covered MMA for the site since 2008. You can shoot him an e-mail at [email protected] or hit him up on Facebook. He also co-hosts the 411 Ground & Pound Radio podcast along with Robert Winfree. You can listen to the latest episode of the podcast in the player below.