mma / Columns

Rousey Shouldn’t Fight Nunes in Return

September 22, 2016 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

After months of uncertainty spent largely outside of the public eye, Ronda Rousey’s hibernation appears to be winding down.

In a recent interview with Brazilian outlet Esporte Espetacular, UFC President Dana White revealed that Rousey will likely fight before the end of the year.

Rousey has kept a low profile – by her standards at least – since her stunning loss to Holly Holm last November. Prior to her loss, Rousey’s exploding popularity was outpacing that of Conor McGregor. She became so famous, and her dominance so familiar, that her one-sided loss became the most notable MMA fight result ever in the United States. It’s hardly surprising that she subsequently shied away from the fight world and the public eye.

Speculation concerning Rousey’s drive and willingness to continue fighting has been rampant, but remains no more than conjecture. What is certain is that when Rousey returns, she’ll be dropped back at the top of the bantamweight mountain to fight its new champion: Amanda Nunes. It might not be the best idea.

Nunes is a killer, a first-round pit bull that will chew you up and choke you out. Historically, the second and third rounds have been Nunes’ enemy – her output declines and her breaths deepen – but getting to that point has been a problem for opponents. Sheila Gaff, Germaine de Randamie, Shayna Baszler, and Sara McMann all went down in the first. Nunes looked scary good in those bouts. In her lone UFC loss, she dominated Cat Zingano for one round. Zingano somehow survived, and later beat up a spent Nunes until the referee stepped in. To some degree, Nunes addressed that conditioning flaw by the time she faced Velentina Shevchenko in March. In that fight, she was strong for two rounds before a third round decline.

For as impressive and damaging as Nunes was in her first six UFC bouts, she was never as ferocious as she was in her crowning performance. Miesha Tate is a proven durable fighter. She’s been dropped and stood back up, and won after being thoroughly outperformed. That durability made her a favorite in her first bantamweight championship defense against Nunes. It was a logical conclusion: Nunes is a hurricane, but Tate was better equipped to weather that attack than Nunes’ earlier opponents were. Instead, Nunes simply tore through Tate with startling force.

While Nunes has been wont to break through opponents like Rampage Jackson does doors, Ronda Rousey generally cut through them. Rousey is the most dominant fighter in the history of the bantamweight division, breezing past most of her opponents in fights measured in seconds, not rounds. Her most dominant victories preceded her great fall: a 16-second takedown of Alexis Davis, a 14-second stretching of Cat Zingano, and a 34-second cut-down of Bethe Correia. To illustrate her dominance, this fighter had become known for how uncommonly fast she dispatched opponents. Then, two of her three fights prior to Holm, when as champion she was in theory taking on the toughest fighters of her career, she recorded her two quickest victories.

Rousey had an aura of invincibility, appearing years ahead of her competition. Then one of those competitors caught up. In the 10 months since she left, perhaps as many as three bantamweights have caught up, including Nunes. The prevailing view of Rousey being untouchable crumbled against Holm, perhaps even in Rousey’s own mind. When Rousey returns, she’ll have as much talent as she had a year ago at this time when she was on top of the world. The key potential differences will be the natural rust accrued following a year away from the ring, and whatever damage was done to her once uncompromising confidence. Even still, Rousey may have the ability to beat Nunes, but the better route to the clash has a pit stop at a tune up fight.

If Rousey’s confidence has been shaken, a tune up fight makes all the sense in the world. Brush off the rust, regain the mentality that took her to 12 consecutive wins. It shouldn’t be a tune up in the worst sense of the term – against an opponent that has no business in the cage with her. Rather, it should be against someone in the lower half of the top ten, a Raquel Pennington type that isn’t a significant threat, but has a claim to be in the spot.

It may be a different story if Nunes figured to be a much larger attraction against Rousey than the typical replacement opponent would be. But he draw of Rousey vs. Nunes would be Rousey’s return first, Rousey fighting for the championship second, and Nunes third. The first factor is magnitudes more important than the latter two in this case, so swapping out Nunes isn’t going to be a pay-per-view killer.

A tune up fight provides Rousey the chance to regain her bearings in the division and shake the dust off before heading into perhaps the most dangerous fight of her career. It puts Rousey in a better position to defeat Nunes and take back her spot – a dream come true for the UFC.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.