Two Historic PPVs Close Out UFC’s Big 2015

Although the events of UFC 192 are still the talk of the MMA world – from the tremendous Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson title match to the attention-grabbing debut of Sage Northcutt – soon enough, focus will shift to what lies ahead for the world’s largest MMA promotion. Nine shows remain on the UFC’s 2015 schedule, including two pay-per-view events that in some ways will rank among the biggest events in mixed martial arts history. Those shows, UFC 193 and UFC 194, highlight the close of a turnaround year for the UFC.

It was clear in late 2014 that 2015 would be a strong year for the promotion. Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier were slated to meet in the biggest light heavyweight championship match since Chuck Liddell held the title; Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz were going to return from length absences in a rare non-title pay-per-view main event. And that was just January. Had a psychic revealed back then that Jones, Silva, and Diaz wouldn’t fight again for the remainder of 2015 after those January bouts, UFC’s prospects for the year wouldn’t have looked nearly as appealing. However, in the absence of those three stars, two fighters had breakout years.

Ronda Rousey was born to fight in an era in which short videos or GIFs could quickly spread throughout the world on the internet. When Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort was removed as the headliner of UFC 184 and Rousey’s match with Cat Zingano was promoted to the top spot, most figured it would hurt the show’s business. Instead, putting all of the focus on Rousey made the show a much bigger deal than it would have been otherwise.

To that point, Rousey’s UFC matches had attracted a lot of attention from media and fans, but hadn’t clicked at a major level on pay-per-view. Her first UFC bout garnered an attention level reserved for the biggest shows, but that interest converted to only about 450,000 pay-per-view buys. The Zingano fight, a match built for more than a year and held in the media hub of Los Angeles, blew away expectations with more than 600,000 pay-per-view buys. Better, video of the 14-second match went viral, making Rousey an even bigger star.

When she returned in August, interest in Rousey was higher than ever. Her match with Bethe Correia attracted far more attention than the Zingano fight, despite being held in Brazil, where American media were less likely to send reporters and pay attention. The Wrestling Observer Newsletter estimated the fight at around 900,000 pay-per-view buys on cable and satellite systems, and reported that it was the UFC’s biggest pay-per-view ever in terms of internet sales. Heading into the year, Rousey was clearly UFC’s most famous athlete. By the time of the Correira match, she also became its biggest drawing card.

The only person that can potentially dethrone Rousey for that distinction in the near future is Conor McGregor. His rise into superstardom was more traditional than Rousey’s, but it also hinged on a series of increasingly risky bets. The brash Irishman started the year with what amounted to a showcase bout against Dennis Siver. The fight headlined a UFC show from Boston on Fox Sports 1, and McGregor was all over Fox’s broadcast of the NFC Championship Game promoting the bout. A loss for McGregor would have been disastrous, although it wasn’t a likely outcome. The fight played out as well as could have been hoped, with McGregor toying with Siver before putting him away in the second, leading to a confrontation with UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. The segment was seen by 3.162 million viewers, UFC’s largest cable audience since the company moved to Fox in 2012.

What followed was an eight-city world media tour with McGregor and Aldo that made more headlines than some UFC pay-per-views. They filmed a commercial promoting the fight at a cost of more than $1 million; all told, the UFC claimed it spent more money promoting Aldo vs. McGregor than any fight in its history. Weeks before the fight, Aldo went down with a rib injury. The UFC looked toward Chad Mendes to step in against McGregor in perhaps the biggest gamble in company history. Mendes, a strong wrestler, was arguably the most dangerous fighter McGregor could hope to meet on short notice. Risking the big money Aldo match, the company went forward with the match. It paid off big time when McGregor took Mendes out in the second round. Even with Aldo out of the fold, McGregor was enough on his own to draw roughly 800,000 buys, a figure that puts him among the elite draws in MMA history.

With Rousey and McGregor leading the charge, the UFC has drawn an estimated 4.87 million pay-per-view buys through the first eight months of the year. In all of 2014, the company drew an estimated 3.19 million buys, according to the Wrestling Observer’s figures. With two pay-per-views left, featuring Rousey and McGregor in the headlining spots, no less, UFC is poised to have its best PPV year since its record-breaking 2010 – a period when the promotion was at the height of its North American popularity.

With Rousey taking on Holly Holm in the main event, UFC 193 from Melbourne, Australia, is poised to be one of the biggest stadium shows in MMA history. According to UFC President Dana White on Twitter, over 40,000 tickets have been sold for the November 15 (November 14 in the U.S.) show, which, if accurate, would put the show ahead of every PRIDE Saitama Super Arena sellout (about 35,000 fans) and on pace to beat PRIDE’s Tokyo Dome sellouts (about 53,000 fans) and UFC’s Rogers Centre sellout (55,724). Even if ticket sales grind to a halt, after papering, UFC 193 should beat UFC 129 for the number two spot on MMA’s attendance record list. (Shockwave 2002 holds the top spot at 71,000.)

On pay-per-view, Rousey guarantees success. Even with the show being in Australia, far from the focus of the primarily North American PPV market, and Holm’s lack of charisma, 650,000 buys would be considered a bottom-of-the-barrel number for the show; and considering how quickly Rousey’s star has grown, it would be foolish to give a ceiling number. Although every factor seems to be going against it, perhaps the show will beat the number Rousey pulled against Correia, which few thought would beat the Rousey-Zingano number going in.

A month later UFC puts on what may be the most loaded show in its history, but one fight casts a shadow over the rest of the card. The featherweight title match between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor has been built for more than a year. While McGregor will be doing the heavy lifting in terms of drawing power, Aldo, who has never been much of a draw, is a key component to the puzzle. He is the long-time champion –one of the greatest fighters ever – counteracting the surging contender.

The show, with its big marquee main event and depth (Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold, one of the most compelling title matches in recent memory, is the co-main event), is a strong threat to break the million-buy mark. If the fight catches on with the casual public, it could realistically become the second-biggest pay-per-view event in UFC history (the record, 1.6 million buys for UFC 100, is almost surely out of reach).

If those final two shows hit it out of the park, the UFC could be looking at a 7 million-buy year on pay-per-view (about a $175 million take for the company). More importantly, with the most beneficial results coming out of both shows, they could be looking at an even bigger 2016. The UFC has already positioned the July 9, 2016, UFC 200 show as one of the biggest in company history, and announced an April date at New York’s Madison Square Garden that may or may not come to fruition. McGregor headlining one of those shows as the undisputed champion would be like hitting the jackpot. Rousey headlining in New York would make for the most media coverage UFC has ever had for a single event. In the background for Rousey looms a match with Cris Cyborg, which has strong potential to be the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history.

If everything unfolds the right way, Rousey and McGregor will be the UFC’s biggest 1-2 combination since Brock Lesnar and Georges St-Pierre, and perhaps even bigger. Coming into 2015, that statement would have been a reach. As we head into UFC 193 and UFC 194 to close out the year, it’s looking true.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.