UFC 200: Brock Lesnar Is Going to the Dark Lands

UFC 200 sees the long-awaited highly anticipated return of former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar to MMA. After over four and a half years away from the cage, Lesnar returns to the cage against Mark Hunt. While sometimes, I am conflicted on the result of a fight outcome, this is a match-up where there is no doubt in my mind that it’s going to be a short-lived return for Lesnar. For his first fight after so many years, I believe Mark Hunt is the worst possible match-up for Lesnar at this point. Hunt is going to take Lesnar to a dark world of pain from which he might never return. It’s a dreaded place that many fighters have gone. Other former champions like Frank Mir have experienced. That moment where they are taken to the “Dark Lands” by Mark Hunt. Lesnar will not be immune to this either. At UFC 200, Hunt will take Lesnar to the Dark Lands, and Hunt is going to leave him there.

For starters, I am happy for Lesnar and respect him for making this return and for all he’s accomplished in his athletic career. All signs point to his being something he wanted to do. Maybe he has something he wants to prove to himself. Toward the tail end of his UFC career, Lesnar was suffering from a debilitating bout with diverticulitis that cut his MMA career short at its height. He was hit with the illness while he was still champion, and he still managed to overcome the undefeated Shane Carwin in a dramatic heavyweight fight. However, after his extended layoffs and surgery, Lesnar just didn’t look the same. The illness clearly took something out of him. Now, while Lesnar claims he is healthier than ever and ready to return, it’s hard to see if that will really make the difference come fight time. Even without the diverticulitis, Lesnar tends to not have the best reaction toward getting hit. No one likes getting hit, but it’s about the way fighters are able to react to getting punched and kicked in the face that makes the difference. Lesnar sort of has that reputation of looking a bit panicked when he gets hit. You can tell he feels it, and he’s looking for a shortcut. Lesnar’s advantages are his unearthly size and strength, coupled with well-honed wrestling and grappling skills. The advantage he’d receive is imposing his will on his opponents with that amazing strength and hurting them. However, Lesnar’s advantages will equate to zero against Mark Hunt.

At 42 years of age, Mark Hunt’s career is one that defies all explanation and logic. Hunt’s had some weird spots of his career, where he seemed like the joke of the heavyweight division and a bit of a sideshow reaction. Despite some competitive and surprising upsets early in his MMA career in Pride FC, earning surprise wins agains the likes of Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva, Hunt went on a long losing streak that for over half a decade. It wasn’t until he finally made it to the UFC and after losing his debut by submission to Sean McCorkle that Hunt actually started evolving his game and becoming a decent fighter. Hunt was always an elite kickboxer with his K-1 background where he won numerous titles. But now he’s developed his grappling and takedown defense to become even better. Not only that, in his latest fights, he’s improved his training and been showing up in some of the best shape of his entire career. Mark Hunt is no longer showing up on fight week and cutting 25 to 30 pounds. Hunt is more motivated than he’s ever looked in his entire career. Not to mention, he hits like a freight train. He puts people to sleep with one punch. In other words, he’s a nightmare for a fighter like Brock Lesnar.

Now, does Lesnar have an advantage in this fight with his wrestling, while Hunt’s advantage with the striking? Maybe…or maybe not. Looking at Mark Hunt’s fighter profile on UFC.com, he has a takedown defense rate of 69 percent. That’s a very good takedown defense rate for a guy who is primarily a striker and suffered more than a few submission losses. Actually, Hunt hasn’t suffered a submission loss in 2010 when he lost to McCorkle. The point here is that this was a genuine weakness in Hunt’s game that he worked on and fix. Hunt’s actually gotten very adept at staying away from submissions and slipping out of them. Even Fabricio Werdum was having difficulty with Hunt in the first round of their fight, and he couldn’t wrangle Hunt to the ground and put him in a submission hold.

My point is this. Lesnar might try to take Hunt to the ground to pound him or put him in a triangle, but he won’t be able to. And despite all his size and strength, when Lesnar realizes he can’t get hunt where he wants him to go, there is only one place left for him to go. That place is the Dark Lands. When he doesn’t get Hunt to the ground, he will eventually be hit. When he’s hit, Lesnar is going to panic, and he might even run a little when he realizes that a trip to the Dark Lands is inevitable, but he is going to go there.

But just watch. At UFC 200, it will be a short-lived return for Brock Lesnar to MMA, and a very bad night for his fans. Mark Hunt will get his 13th career win as he heads back to title contention. Mark Hunt will decide when the fight ends. And after he takes Lesnar to the Dark Lands, he will leave him there. Hunt knocks out Lesnar in the first round.

Jeffrey Harris is 411mania’s resident Jack of All Trades and has covered MMA for the site since 2008. You can shoot him an e-mail at [email protected] or hit him up on Facebook.