UFC Gambling With Its Biggest Stars’ Futures

Two of the key stories in 2015 were the rises of Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor to superstar box office draws and international celebrities. Half a dozen years earlier, the UFC was lucky to have on Brock Lesnar – a heavyweight sensation that brought a new audience to the sport. Suddenly, the UFC had two Lesnars that the public accepted even more than their predecessor as mainstream sports stars. Such was their importance to the company and its record-setting $600 million year in 2015 that reportedly one of the key components to the UFC sale was that they had both Rousey and McGregor locked in to long-term deals.

Rousey in particular grew to the level of the most famous star in MMA history, propelled by unparalleled success in the cage – including a series of quick finishes that more easily allowed her fights to spread virally, an infatuated media, and saying the right things to grab attention (with the wrong things largely flying under the mainstream’s radar). In a post-Lesnar-and-GSP world, she engaged in an arms race of sorts with McGregor to determine the sport’s biggest draw. In February, Rousey drew a bit above 600,000 pay-per-view buys. Five months later, McGregor, in his first pay-per-view headliner, drew more than 800,000. Weeks later, Rousey, with less of a marketing push and from Brazil (fights outside of North America generally take about a 20% on that fact alone due to lesser media coverage) pulled about 910,000 buys. In November, this time from Australia, she drew a hair under 1.1 million. McGregor, benefitting from a stronger undercard and marketing push, topped that in December with about 1.2 million buys, then in March 2016 blew everything out of the water with a claimed 1.6 million buys.

Pay-per-view sales for Rousey and McGregor fights trended upward as both posted impressive finishes against opponents that drew the public’s interest in some form. Then, both fell, and everything after that has been unknown.

First, Rousey ran into Holly Holm, a far superior striker whose strength and technique in the clinch curbed Rousey from playing her game on the mat. Unable to dictate the terms of the fight, Rousey turned up the aggression, playing into Holm’s precise counterstriking. With every failure, Rousey responded by turning up the volume, culminating in a stunning head kick knockout loss.

After capturing the featherweight title in December, McGregor took aim for the lightweight championship in March. Eleven days before the fight, lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos withdrew from the fight with a foot injury. Stepping in on short notice, Nate Diaz, usually a lightweight, agreed to fight McGregor at welterweight. Even before the switch, there had been talk that with a win over dos Anjos, McGregor would jump up to welterweight to challenge for Robbie Lawler’s title. Against an underprepared Diaz, McGregor threw punches with volume and a purpose in round one, but the blows failed to sit Diaz down. He kept hunting down a bloodied Diaz in round two, but Diaz was less hurt than he appeared. As McGregor’s breaths began to get noticeably deeper and his hands lowered, Diaz landed a left hand that caught the Irishman’s attention. Wounded, McGregor shot for a desperation takedown but failed, landing on the bottom of a BJJ black belt. Diaz mounted, McGregor turned, and Diaz locked in a rear-naked choke to end the night.

Although perhaps counterintuitive, a loss in mixed martial arts does not necessarily halt surging momentum in terms of drawing ability; with the right follow-up fight, and the right result in that fight, the fighter may be no worse off with the earlier loss than they would be without it. This is where the UFC may have faltered in their follow-ups to Rousey and McGregor’s losses.

The UFC had its eye toward an ultra-lucrative immediate rematch between Holm and Rousey. When Rousey went down, some experts opined that she should take a year to improve before challenging Holm again. Soon after her loss, it became clear Rousey would return no time soon, but the reason for that – whether movie commitments, a general disinterest in fighting, or an intense desire to improve behind closed doors – remains unspoken for. Still, the UFC was keen to keep Holm sidelined until Rousey returned. When Holm’s camp pushed for a fight, the UFC booked her against Miesha Tate; it was just about the safest fight they could have made.

As much of a big fight as Holm vs. Rousey II promised to be, Tate vs. Rousey III, the culmination of a bitter years-long rivalry, wasn’t a bad second option. So when Tate upset Holm in the fifth round of a very competitive match, Holm’s loss didn’t have to be a major one for the UFC. If Rousey came back to beat Tate and followed that with a Holm rematch, it could be the best possible scenario for all involved.

After Tate defeated Holm, there was a feeling that Rousey may return sooner than previously believed. When that turned out not to be the case, the UFC matched Tate with Amanda Nunes, a relative unknown compared to the other three top bantamweights but a legitimate contender nonetheless. Holm was paired with Valentina Shevchenko, a skilled and decorated striker. This is where the questionable matchmaking began. If Tate would not wait for Rousey, the best course was a rematch against Holly Holm – the only fight that guaranteed that at least one of the big Rousey matches would remain intact. For unclear reasons, they went the much riskier route: separating Tate and Holm and pitting them against dangerous, little-known opponents.

As for McGregor, he reacted to his loss in a markedly different manner from Rousey. McGregor wanted to get back in the cage with Diaz as soon as possible, and he wanted it at 170 pounds. A superstar with superstar pull, he got his wish. It’s a move driven by ego more than intelligence; McGregor yearns to overwrite history. A lightweight limit would tip the scales more toward McGregor; Diaz is a naturally larger fighter and his cuts to 155 pounds are tough. However, McGregor won’t allow his revenge to come under anything that could be conceived as lesser circumstances than the first fight.

The UFC’s lack of caution in booking the bantamweight title picture has cost them. Nunes routed Tate at UFC 200, but despite the big stage, the new champion didn’t come across as a new superstar. Shevchenko was a step ahead of Holm and won easily on the scorecards. Past Rousey, Shevchenko appears to be the top contender in the division, but a Nunes vs. Shevchenko match couldn’t headline a pay-per-view and do better than basement-level numbers. Rousey could transform either one into a star just by association, as she did with Bethe Correia and Holm, but neither would promise anything close to the pay-per-view returns that Tate or Holm could have. Worse, Rousey may not beat Nunes or Shevchenko, and a second consecutive loss would hurt her drawing power.

Perhaps the UFC had to give in to McGregor’s specific demands for a Diaz rematch. Diaz makes sense as an opponent in many ways. He’s the most lucrative opponent for McGregor, avenging the loss would be a huge feather in his cap, and another loss won’t kill him since he’s competing above his normal weight class. Diaz may be a more dangerous opponent for McGregor than Frankie Edgar or Jose Aldo since McGregor’s stopping power doesn’t appear to translate perfectly above featherweight, but a loss to Diaz isn’t as damaging as a loss to Edgar or Aldo.

The UFC took risks in building both Rousey and McGregor. When Rousey first entered the promotion, they attempted to match her with Cris Cyborg, a dangerous fight that could have halted her momentum back in 2013. After McGregor earned a title match by defeating Dustin Poirier in 2014, the UFC gambled by pitting him in a showcase match on television to build his name – a strategy that has backfired for some. Later, when Jose Aldo withdrew from their scheduled match at UFC 189, UFC tabbed Chad Mendes, a wrestler that figured to give McGregor fits, as a late replacement.

With Rousey on the outside, the UFC gambled with her future opponent and came away with the worst possible result. They are taking another gamble with McGregor – or perhaps more accurately, McGregor is taking another gamble on himself – but it’s a safer gamble compared to the bantamweight situation.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.