mma / Columns

Unpacking Holly Holm’s Shocking Upset of Ronda Rousey

November 16, 2015 | Posted by Dan Plunkett

They say that losing is inevitable in this game, but Ronda Rousey appeared to have a strong chance at being the exception.

She had torn through all of her past opposition with ease, with only passing moments of trouble, and she was only improving. There was a pattern to her fights: she dragged her opponents to the ground, found an arm, and pulled. On rare occasions, the opponent would escape that first attempt, but it was only a brief reprieve from the inevitable. A couple of times, she took out opponents on the feet, but hardly out of necessity. When she was determined to follow it, the pattern had never failed. Takedown, armbar, over.

That is what should have happened Sunday afternoon in Melbourne, Australia. That is what most everything thought would happen. Holly Holm was just another arm out for collection in Ronda Rousey’s road to an early retirement. She possessed interesting tools, sure, but if she were to win, she would have to avoid floor – where the skill and experience disparity is like an adult to a child – for the full 25 minutes, because Holm had never been known for her fight-ending power.

Because of Rousey’s unprecedented success, it seemed foolish to believe that her attack wouldn’t eventually find success. She did close the distance. She did take Holm down. She did find her arm, but Holm defended and escaped to her feet. As Holm’s arm slipped from Rousey’s grip, so too slipped her only real chance at winning the fight. Afterward, Holm fought the perfect fight.

Holm moved like a matador in the ring, stifling Rousey’s plan to get in close. As Rousey would charge in, Holm fired left hands on the mark, making Rousey see and breathe red. As fist met face, frustration seemed to invade Rousey’s mind, as exhaustion did the body. Her attacks became more reckless. For the first time in her career, she had no control of the fight.

The symbolic end of the fight occurred just seconds before the emphatic ending. Rousey, in aggressive pursuit of a fleet-footed Holm, threw a left hook. Holm disappeared in front of Rousey’s eyes, ducking the strike and moving to the center of the cage as Rousey fell to a knee before quickly spinning around with a bewildered look etched into her face. The sequence, lasting only a couple of seconds, encapsulated the disparity in skill and experience in the striking game, showing that it may be even greater than the advantage Rousey holds over Holm on the ground. Although Rousey gamely moved forward afterward, it seemed she was out of answers, her body too tired, her mind too damaged. Seconds later, a left hand made her stumble, and a head kick made her crumble.

How did a fighter that Sports Illustrated hailed as the world’s most dominant athlete only months ago fall so hard?

Maybe the fight was decided when, against the public wishes of her mother, Rousey stuck by coach Edmond Tarverdyan and the Glendale Fighting Club. It may have been decided when the public caught wind of her relationship with UFC heavyweight Travis Browne, which Rousey refused to address. Maybe the toll of carrying heavy weight of the media obligations and celebrity status that come with being the biggest star the sport has ever seen decided the fight. Perhaps it was decided when a brief weigh-in skirmish brought an angered Rousey to the brink of tears. An undisclosed injury could have decided the fight. But for certain, it was in large part decided in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where Holly Holm has honed her craft for 14 years.

Holm’s performance was near flawless. Her counterstriking style was the perfect spoiler for Rousey’s aggressive, constantly forward-moving attack. In perspective, her upset is strikingly unique. She took a fighter many considered unbeatable in her division and thoroughly outclassed for the entirety of the bout. Holm did always have a clear path to victory, but few considered it realistic beneath the long shadow of Rousey’s record of success. In the fight usually referenced as the biggest upset in MMA history, Matt Serra didn’t display such dominance and Georges St-Pierre didn’t yet stand over the welterweight division as Rousey did at bantamweight, but Serra also didn’t have a nice paved path to victory.

Due to the visibility of the fight and of Rousey, Holm’s victory will be much more remembered than Serra’s. It won’t only be remembered as a legendary upset in MMA history, but in general sports history as well. Google searches for the fight eclipsed 10 million as of Sunday night, far above any MMA topic in history, making it the most noteworthy MMA fight result in history. According to the UFC, a company record 56,214 fans flocked to Etihad Stadium for the bout. It’s far too early for real pay-per-view indications, but the show had the potential to reach one million buys. If it didn’t, the rematch is guaranteed to reach, and perhaps far exceed, that landmark number.

Holm vs. Rousey 2 has the potential to be the biggest mixed martial arts fight of all-time. Its likely date doesn’t hurt its chances. Even before the fight, Rousey was penciled in to headline UFC 200 on July 16, 2016. Considering Rousey’s schedule and the magnitude of the match, that night makes the most sense to host the rematch.

Despite Rousey’s undeniable athleticism and her clear advantages on the ground, her performance at UFC 193 didn’t give any reason not to favor Holm in a do-over. Holm, even if she stepped into the danger zone by going to the ground twice, had all the answers before Rousey had even posed the questions. Rousey can change camps, return in better shape, and eliminate distractions from her life, but Holly Holm will still be a tremendous athlete with vastly more skill on the feet. It will still be difficult for Rousey to catch Holm and stop her movement. It will still be a challenge for her to take the fight to the ground and keep it there.

Perhaps Holly Holm won’t dominate the bantamweight ranks as Rousey did, but until she sees a sharp decline in her athletic ability, she’ll remain a difficult puzzle for Rousey to grasp.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.