Upsets Leave UFC 200 Full of Possibilities

Seven years ago, the biggest event in mixed martial arts history began to take form. It could not have gone any better for the UFC.

The UFC had scheduled the heavyweight title match between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir for UFC 98, but minor knee surgery for Mir forced the promotion to reorganize its schedule. Plans calling for Rashad Evans to defend his light heavyweight championship in the main event of UFC 100 changed to UFC 98. UFC bumped Lesnar vs. Mir, the biggest grudge match in the promotion, to the top spot at UFC 100. A welterweight title match between surging superstar draw Georges St-Pierre and Thiago Alves was added to the mix, along with a rivalry fight between Ultimate Fighter coaches Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping.

The show did record business – 1.6 million pay-per-view buys – and marked a major mainstream breakthrough for the sport. That weekend, for the first time in the United States, mixed martial arts led the sports news. Even the fight that didn’t occur benefitted. Quinton Jackson won the right to face Evans with a win at UFC 96, but injuries prevented him from such a quick turnaround. Evans lost his belt, but the delay allowed the UFC more time to build the best-drawing non-title match in company history to that point.

One hundred pay-per-view events later, the company’s luck could not be any different.

Huge 2015s for both Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor appeared to make one or both sure things to headline UFC 200.

Prior to her November match with Holly Holm, Rousey announced her intention to sit out until UFC 200. Ideally, the event would have housed the long-anticipated match between Rousey and the female who appeared to be her only competitive rival, Cris Cyborg. The story of the fight and Rousey’s star power were so strong that the match would have challenged UFC 100’s record, and perhaps blown past it. When Rousey fell to Holm, the Cyborg fight took the backseat to a rematch that also promised monster numbers. The UFC targeted the fight for UFC 200, but Rousey’s busy movie schedule and the manner in which she lost pushed the expected date back to November.

As soon as he flattened Jose Aldo in 13 seconds at UFC 194 to win the featherweight title, there was no question Conor McGregor would headline UFC 200, the only question was his opponent. He carried tremendous momentum into UFC 196 against Nate Diaz. Even before the fight, speculation was heavy regarding his potential UFC 200 opponent. Would he challenge Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title? Would keep his sights on Rafael dos Anjos’ lightweight title that he was supposed to be fighting for at UFC 196? Would Georges St-Pierre emerge from the sidelines for a non-title mega fight? Then McGregor fell to Diaz, and the certainty that he would compete above his normal featherweight division going forward went down with it.

Four months away from UFC 200, there are plenty of options to choose from, but none come close to the matches that seemed likely only days or months ago.

For the moment, Conor McGregor is as close to a lock for the show as anyone. In a sport where losses aren’t nearly as harmful to star power as most make them out to be, McGregor’s was key because it eliminated several extremely lucrative fights in higher weight classes. At best, they won’t become possibilities again until he proves himself at a higher weight class with a win, at which point he can cash in on them. Now he’s headed back to the featherweight division, which may not be the best for his health, but it’s his best weight class.

The two real possibilities for McGregor at UFC 200 are a rematch with Jose Aldo or a match with Frankie Edgar. Both have campaigned hard for the match since December, and it’s difficult to say who will get the fight. Aldo has the history with McGregor, which is both good (they have plenty of readily available clips and promotional materials) and bad (he was knocked out in 13 seconds), plus he’s a key fighter in Brazil, where UFC’s lucrative television deal expires this year. Edgar is on an impressive winning streak and has been more apt lately to speaking his mind, which will be key in building a fight with McGregor. From a business perspective, Aldo is the safer bet, but Edgar could talk his way into the match.

Another likelihood for UFC 200 is a welterweight title fight. Robbie Lawler has a crowd of fighters at his door, but two appear to have an edge. The UFC has interest in matching Nate Diaz, who should come out of Saturday as a big star, against Lawler, which is strange because McGregor vs. Diaz was essentially a lightweight fight where they agreed they wouldn’t cut the extra weight. Diaz deserves a title shot after beating McGregor, but a rematch with Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight title would make more sense. The second major opponent for Lawler would be Georges St-Pierre, who sat cageside on Saturday for the first time in years. While a St-Pierre return is befitting of UFC 200, it’s a matter of St-Pierre’s desire to return and the UFC’s ability to cut a deal for it. His appearance at UFC 196 lends the return rumors a lot of credence, but there have been no official reports on his next move. Lawler’s other options, Tyron Woodley and Carlos Condit, would be enjoyable co-feature bouts.

One result at UFC 196 nudged the door ajar for a major UFC 200 fight. Miesha Tate came from behind to choke out Holly Holm in the fifth round of their championship match in a major upset. While Ronda Rousey appeared set on November to rematch Holm, perhaps Tate, who she’s already beaten twice, could convince her to return earlier. “Well, looks like I’ve got to get back to work,” Rousey texted Dana White after learning of Tate’s win.

Tate vs. Rousey would provide a big boost to UFC 200; there will be interest in both the grudge the two openly display and in Rousey’s return from a bad loss. It could only be made better by Holly Holm competing on the undercard, building toward a rematch with the winner of the title fight.

The UFC will flesh out its top fights of what it is already calling the biggest event in its history in the coming days and weeks. A series of upsets ranging from surprising to downright shocking have crushed the ideal scenarios, but the promotion still has plenty of superstars and matchups to piece together a major show. It may not beat out UFC 100’s records, but UFC 200 will surely be a landmark event.

Dan Plunkett has covered MMA for 411Mania since 2008. You can reach him by email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @Dan_Plunkett.