Who Falls of the Horse: Ben Rothwell or Junior dos Santos?

The UFC is hitting the stage this Sunday form across the sea with its UFC Fight Night 86 event in Zagreb, Croatia. The card isn’t anything special. Other than coming from Croatia, it’s your average Fight Night foray. However, headlining the card is heavyweight tilt between two perennial heavyweights in Ben Rothwell and Junior Dos Santos. This will be a telling fight for both contenders as one tries to solidify his title shot and the other tries to remain relevant within the top five.

The funny thing about this fight is years back you would have never imagined the significance of these beast locking horns. For the longest time Junior dos Santos, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, was considered the number two guy right behind the former champion, Cain Velasquez. Ben Rothwell was an IFL veteran alternating wins and loses in the octagon and many would have never envisioned the ride he is currently on. Between 2005 and 2008, Rothwell was on a 13-fight winning streak and had amassed a nice and strong record of 29-wins with 5-losses.

Then he ran across Andrei Arlovski who was fresh out of the UFC with wins over Marcio Cruz, future UFC champion Fabricio Werdum, and Jake O’Brien. At Affliction: Banned, Arlovski represented a step up in competition and proceeded to knockout Rothwell in the third round. A win and fight later “Big Ban” made his UFC debut against Cain Velasquez and was viciously dismantled by the future heavyweight king. Rothwell bounced back with a decision win over Gilbert Yvel but followed it up with a terrible decision loss to Mark Hunt. The Wisconsin native found life again by knocking out Brendan Schaub but stumbled again in submitting to Gabriel Gonzaga, and, winning against Brandon Vera but failing a performance enhancing drug test for elevated testosterone levels..

Meanwhile, a little over a year before Rothwell’s UFC debut, JDS explode onto the heavyweight scene by knocking out Fabricio Werdum with ease in the first round at UFC 90. JDS rode a nine-fight winning streak within the UFC form 2008 to 2012. In this run he toppled the likes of Cro-Cop, Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez, and Frank Mir. At the UFC on FOX debut broadcast, he captured the heavyweight title by way of knockout, stopping the cardio freak know as Cain Velasquez. Next, he easily defended his title against Frank Mir at UFC 146, but at UFC 155 his career would change directions with a rematch against Cain Velasquez.

This brings us to their current runs. Since the Brandon Vera fight Rothwell has gone 3-0 and become quite the character. He was getting out gunned by Alistair Overeem but laid the Dutchman out cold and proceeded to perform a dance levels below Paige VanZant’s dance abilities. Rothwell then meet Matt Mitrione and easily submitted the form pro-NFL defensive lineman. He followed his performance by giving a terribly contrived but memorable post-fight interview. In his most recent fight he put an exclamation point on his career by becoming the first fighter to truly submit the catch-as-catch-can-wrestling specialist, Josh Barnett.

Around the same time frame, JDS suffered his first UFC loss after getting utterly dominated by Cain Velasquez. After the fight the face of JDS was engorged near beyond all recognition. Velasquez had not only beaten JDS and regained his title. He had brutalized and terrorized the Brazilian for five exhausting rounds. JDS bounced back with a so-so win against Mark Hunt and earned a third crack at Velasquez. At UFC 166 JDS fell once again to Velasquez, this time by way of technical knockout. He had his moments in this fight but was again utterly dominated by the cardio freak.

A little over a year after his third tilt with Velasquez, JDS stepped into the octagon with rising contender, Stipe Mocic, at UFC on FOX 13. JDS was able to edge the young gun in a back and forth fight of night battle. However, you couldn’t help but notice JDS had lost some steam. Finally, the former heavyweight champion stepped in the octagon opposite of Alistair Overeem. Unlike, Rothwell, the Brazilian could not handle the power of the Dutchman. At UFC on FOX 17 JDS lost to Overeem by way of technical knockout and really appeared to be a shell of his former self.

Their paths are now crossing at a pivotal moment in their professional fight careers. Rothwell is riding high and on the cusp of actually fighting for a UFC heavyweight title. JDS is on a downward slope and his last two performances tell us he is possibly slipping away as a top five contender. It is make or break time for those two behemoths. Either, Ben Rothwell, the current No. 4 in the UFC rankings, steps closer to gold, or he stumbles once again. JDS, the No. 5 ranked heavyweight, will either begin his re-ascent, or continue on his descend down the ranks.

The odds are slightly in favor of the Brazilian, but Rothwell’s confidence is sky high and he has beaten two sound competitors in his last three fights. His stand-up is far from prefect and he is hittable. His resilience though is high. He is gritty, can take some big punishment, and has thunder in his punches. On the ground he will have a fair chance. JDS is an exceptional MMA boxer with an outstanding Brazilian jiu Jitsu game. He can pitter-patter Rothwell’s body and face in route to a technical knockout or decision victory but he will have show up in good form unlike in his last two outings. At this point I feel as though it is a tossup, a 50/50 chance of going either way. I still believe Velasquez stole something from JDS in their last two encounters the Brazilian can’t get back. Rothwell, though, is on a run and the feeling is there is no way Junior dos Santos is stopping that train.