politics

Crushing New Poll For Clinton: Obama Leads By 23 In NC

April 5, 2008 | Posted by Ashish

After days of Pennsylvania polls showed Hillary Clinton crumbling in the state, a new Rasmussen poll of North Carolina has horrible news for her diminishing chances — she is now behind 23% to Barack Obama, 56% to 33%. The stunner here is that just one month ago, Rasmussen’s NC poll had Clinton not far behind in the state, trailing by 7%, 47% to 40%. The huge drop also gives more credibility to her huge drops in PA. Many saw those polls showing such a large drop and figured they couldn’t be accurate, but not only has that drop now shown up in several PA polls, it is also starting to show up in NC. As I’ve stated before, Clinton cannot lose NC and still think she has a chance. She has to win PA, IN, and NC (and she has to win PA big, by 10+ points). That’s the only way she has any sort of shot at justifying staying in the race. A loss in any of those three will finish off what is left of her campaign, and obviously a 20+ point loss in NC would be absolutely devastating.

Looking at the internals, Obama leads 86% to 9% among black voters while Clinton is holding on to a slight lead among whites, 47% to 38%. A month ago, Clinton led by 20 points among whites. Remember all the talk about how the Rev. Wright story would crush Obama’s chances of winning over undecided white voters? It was all false. The Wright story hasn’t impacted Obama at all, and there are signs that his acclaimed race speech may have actually resulted in a net positive from the story for him, as evident by national polls and state polls in PA and NC.

This drop further illustrates what I talked about in my article this morning — that Clinton’s money woes are catching up to her in PA and now we see the same effect happening in NC. We’re likely to see the same thing in Indiana once the candidates start paying more attention to that state. Obama is flooding states with ads which he can afford because of the massive amounts of money he’s raising and Clinton can’t respond because despite her many public pleas for people to donate to her campaign, people aren’t donating to her and she is basically out of money according to Newsweek. So she has to just take it. And what that does is it fuels media reports that she has no chance and is on her last legs and that in turn demoralizes her supporters, especially her softer supporters who start to accept that Clinton has no chance and begin to tell pollsters that they no longer plan to go vote because their vote for Clinton probably won’t matter. It’s a vicious cycle that usually ends all campaigns, and we’re seeing it now sink its teeth into the Clinton campaign.

The end is near.

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