politics

Final Swing State Polls Analysis

November 5, 2012 | Posted by Ashish

Here we are, the final polling update for 2012. We may get a few new polls tomorrow but I doubt I’ll do a full update on them. Instead I’ll focus on the actual signs of turnout tomorrow, along with the inevitable exit polling leaks, partisan freakouts, and the other drama that always unfolds on election night.

Today’s data continues to paint the same picture we’ve been seeing — the national popular vote remains very close (with a slight lead to Obama), while Obama holds larger, more sturdy leads in the key swing states that would put him over 270. As I’ve been saying, polls would have to be fundamentally wrong in several states for Romney to win. It could happen, but the type of polling failure Romney would need has not happened before in recent history. It’s a turnout game now — if Obama turns his sporadic voters out, he’ll win. If he doesn’t, Romney will have a shot.

Earlier today, I posted the election day schedule for tomorrow, with an hour-by-hour look at what to watch for as the results start coming in. I’ll also be tweeting my thoughts live tomorrow as results come in, so be sure to follow me on Twitter.

That being said, here are the final numbers, followed by my analysis.

* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)
* OHIO: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Univ. of Cincinnati)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Gravis)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
* FLORIDA: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy)
* FLORIDA: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* COLORADO: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Keating)
* NEVADA: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (New England College)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 51%, Romney 48% (WMUR)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy)

* OHIO AVG: Obama +3.0%
* IOWA AVG: Obama +2.3%
* WISCONSIN AVG: Obama +5.3%
* NEVADA AVG: Obama +4.7%
* COLORADO AVG: Obama +2.8%
* VIRGINIA AVG: Obama +1.8%
* FLORIDA AVG: Romney +1.5%
* NORTH CAROLINA AVG: Romney +1.2%
* NEW HAMPSHIRE AVG: Obama +2.8%

* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (RAND)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (ABC/Washington Post)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 47% Pew Research)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (UPI)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Gallup RV)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (SurveyUSA)
* NATIONAL: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* NATIONAL: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Gallup LV)

* NATIONAL AVG: Obama +1.0%

* OBAMA APPROVAL RATING: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove (Gallup)

* 538 STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 315.3, Romney 222.7
* VOTAMATIC STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 326, Romney 212
* SAM WANG STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 310, Romney 228
* DeSART/HOLBROOK STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 281, Romney 257

* REALCLEARPOLITICS POLLING AVERAGES: Obama 303, Romney 235
* POLLTRACKER POLLING AVERAGES: Obama 303, Romney 235
* POLLSTER POLLING AVERAGES: Obama 303, Romney 235

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Ashish

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