politics

Polling Averages Show Momentum For Obama In Final Days

November 4, 2012 | Posted by Ashish

As the 2012 election enters its final full day tomorrow, it’s pretty clear from the polling data that Obama has had significant momentum in the swing states since the final debate. What I’ve done below is compare the polling averages on October 22nd, the day of the final debate, with where we stand today.

The polling averages in every state have shifted to Obama except for Florida. Obama has seen his largest bounce in Ohio (+3.0%), New Hampshire (+2.3%), and Wisconsin (+2.1%) and his lowest bounces in Florida (-1.0%) and North Carolina (+0.8%).

Many high profile Republicans such as Karl Rove have been saying over the last few days that if Romney does lose on Tuesday, Hurricane Sandy will be to blame. But it’s pretty clear in the data that the momentum shift back to Obama began with that final debate performance.

As I’ve been stressing for months, the polling averages are much more reliable and worth paying attention to than individual poll numbers. Polling averages rarely get it wrong, and right now Obama is leading the polling averages in every single swing state except Florida and North Carolina.

Here are the numbers…

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