politics

Thursday Swing State Polls Analysis: VA, CO, NH, IA, NV, NC, WI

November 1, 2012 | Posted by Ashish

Another day of very bad state poll numbers for Romney today. His only path to victory at this point seems to be to hope that Rasmussen is right and that literally every other pollster is wrong. This was the same point John McCain was left in right before the 2008 election, as Rasmussen was the only pollster showing him having a shot. The result? Rasmussen was wrong, and everyone else was right. I’m not saying that is what is going to happen this time, but it’s worth mentioning that we saw an identical situation in 2008 and saw how that turned out. It’s certainly possible that all the polls except Rasmussen are wrong in their electorate turnout model, but that isn’t the type of thing that happens very often.

Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis. I’m no longer listing the trends, as they don’t really matter now. All that matters at this point is who is winning and who is losing.

* VIRGINIA: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Public Policy)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (CNN)
* COLORADO: ROmney 50%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* IOWA: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (NBC/WSJ)
* IOWA: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* NEVADA: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (High Point)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 51%, Romney 42% (WPR)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Obama has also taken the national lead in average national polls, now up to 1.4%.

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