411 Fact or Fiction Wrestling: Will Roman Reigns Win The Rumble?

Welcome back to the latest edition of 411 Fact or Fiction, Wrestling Edition! Stuff happened, people loved/hated it and let everyone else know. I pick through the interesting/not so interesting tidbits and then make 411 staff members discuss them for your pleasure. Battling this week are 411’s Jack Stevenson and Mike Chin!

Questions were sent out Monday.

Participants were told to expect wrestling-related content, as well as possible statements on quantum physics, homemade pharmaceuticals, the Turtle Total Trip Theorem, pizza and hydroponics.

1. Roman Reigns will win the Royal Rumble and retain the WWE Title on Sunday.

Mike Chin: FICTION – While I certainly wouldn’t rule it out, and Reigns has certainly been at the center of the Royal Rumble build, the essence of booking a match like this is to get the strap off the champion–likely so he can regain it at WrestleMania. Whether it’s Brock Lesnar, Triple H, a legit surprise entrant who shakes up the top of the card, or an odd ball shift in direction like Dean Ambrose or Bray Wyatt walking out with the strap, I have to believe that Reigns drops the title here.

Jack Stevenson: FICTION – As hell-bent as WWE are on ensuring that Roman Reigns is solidified as a main eventer and preferably the face of the company for the next decade or so, I still think they have just enough sense of perspective to realize that having him enter first, go bell to bell, last 60 minutes, see off the rest of the roster and retain his WWE Championship in the process would be just a little bit over the top, and come across as rather desperate. More reasonable is that he makes a really good go of it and reaches the final four, but then finally gets eliminated by Triple H or Brock Lesnar or, more fantastically… AJ Styles? This, of course, leads into Reigns challenging for his belt back in the main event of WrestleMania against whoever the Authority’s chosen one is, and finally getting the proper WrestleMania moment he was denied last year, launching him into the main event stratosphere, from which he will never return. Supposedly. Anyway, if I had to guess, that’s the scenario I’d say they were going for, so let’s all watch now as Reigns is eliminated within 12 seconds and never heard of again and the main event of WrestleMania is Rusev vs. Alberto Del Rio as the League of Nations implodes.

2. WWE’s relaunch of Smackdown on the USA Network has been a creative failure because the show is the same as it always was.

Mike Chin: FICTION – While WWE has made some gestures toward making Smackdown a bigger deal, including Alberto Del Rio winning back the US title, and appearances from main event players, in the grand scheme of things, Raw is still the A-show, and unless WWE is willing to put Smackdown on equal or greater footing, or truly find a way to give the show a different and distinctive identity, it’s not going to change the image of the show. Folks have divergent opinions about the old brand split, and it’s true that Smackdown was rarely treated as an equal property to Raw on those days, but I’m in the camp that unless Smackdown has a distinctive set of featured stars, it’s unlikely the show will ever be a noteworthy creative success

Jack Stevenson: FACT – It’s too early to say in a sense; just because the show hasn’t dramatically improved in the space of a fortnight, doesn’t mean it won’t get better as the weeks progress. There have been signs that WWE are at least making an attempt at taking Smackdown more seriously, booking Alberto Del Rio to win back his U.S. Championship from Kalisto on last week’s episode and rejuvenating and massively improving the commentary team with the terrific, distinctive Mauro Ranallo and revitalized, heeled up Jerry Lawler. That’s all conjecture, however, and based on the admittedly limited evidence we have so far, Smackdown’s just the same as it always was, a cavalcade of substandard Raw previews or rematches, taking place in front of depleted, vaguely depressing crowds, with the truly top level wrestlers often nowhere to be seen. The best matches that the new and improved Smackdown has so far offered are Charlotte vs. Becky Lynch and Dean Ambrose vs. Kevin Owens from the re-debut show, and while they were both undeniably fine outings, they aren’t exactly the most original pairings. WWE remain content to just recycle matches and angles we’ve already seen before, often several times, and while they keep doing that Smackdown’s never going to seem like must see viewing. if I hadn’t watched the show at all over the last fortnight, then the most notable thing I would have missed would have been a man winning back a championship he only lost two days prior, and Jerry Lawler reverting to his old heel mannerisms, which is an indictment of the fare we’ve been served up so far.

3. Hot-shotting the US Title between Del Rio and Kalisto last week did nothing to help Kalisto or the US Title.

Mike Chin: FICTION – I may be overly optimistic, but I’m holding out hope that WWE means to push Kalisto as a singles star, and that this was the first big step in that direction. The thing is, even if I’m wring and Kalisto recedes to being just another guy, I’d still answer fiction here because, for the first time since Del Rio took the US Championship off of John Cena, that title felt important this week. Kalisto and Del Rio put on a very good TV match on Raw, and the title change seemed meaningful. Del Rio regaining the title on Smackdown reads as anticlimactic and potentially counter-productive, but even if the only net result is more focus on Del Rio as US champ, that’s a moderate success for him and the strap.

Jack Stevenson: FACT – All it has managed to do is underline that U.S. Championship changes aren’t necessarily significant and that there’s no pressing reason to get behind Kalisto. It was genuinely exciting when the hyper talented luchador wrenched the title belt from around Del Rio’s waist on Raw last week, and seem to herald a bold change in direction for the championship as a whole, with a breakout singles star defending against an array of fresh opponents. But almost immediately, the status quo clawed its way back, and for our U.S. Championship matches we’ve got to tolerate a disinterested Del Rio awkwardly positioning people for his Double Stomp finisher for the foreseeable future. In fairness, Kalisto lost the match in noble fashion, with outside interference from Alberto’s League of Nations cohorts being required to put him away, but that doesn’t change the fact that you’ve now got to take any good run he goes on with a pinch of salt- is this actually going to go anywhere, or is it just going to culminate in some weird abortive fake title change or something, like it did last time? It gives the impression that WWE don’t have faith in Kalisto beyond a certain point- they’d be willing to hot shot the title on him for a couple of days to get attention, but not to actually commit to him long term. It will take time and patience for that perception to change, but unfortunately that’s the sort of thing WWE tend to lack. Kalisto deserves better.

SWITCH!

4. At least one NXT star will work the Royal Rumble match.

Jack Stevenson: FICTION – Perhaps it’s just been harder to notice because the wrestling news media has been so preoccupied with the impending arrival of Bullet Club, but I’ve not seen any NXT names strongly linked with a Royal Rumble appearance. It wouldn’t make much sense this year anyway; with the overriding focus of the match being the WWE Championship, an even grander prize than a World Championship shot at WrestleMania which often doesn’t result in a title change anyway, it seems like it would be even easier than normal for a fresh faced call-up to get lost in the shuffle and struggle to make an impact. Off the top of my head, there’s no one that is ready for the spot and would obviously benefit from it anyway- Finn Balor, perhaps, but then his style of wrestling isn’t necessarily suited to the oversized brawl that the Rumble is. In years past the promotion of NXT wrestlers for one off appearances in the Rumble has been tokenism anyway, so I don’t see it as being especially likely this time out.

Mike Chin: FACT – This one could go either way, but it seems like a missed opportunity for WWE not to have at least one person from NXT make a Rumble appearance, even if it’s just one-off for the time being to whet our appetites (along the lines of Rusev’s main roster debut in 2014). In NXT, WWE has its most successful stab at a separate roster of stars under it’s own ownership and control so an appearance from the likes of someone Finn Balor or Sami Zayn could legitimately pop the crowd. While I doubt WWE will go this far, there’s also the possibility that a guy of that caliber could show up in the Rumble and make a difference with a big elimination or two, an iron man run, or surviving to the late stages of the bout.

5. Monday’s Raw was a great go home show for the Royal Rumble PPV.

Jack Stevenson: FICTION – I didn’t hate it, but it was certainly far from great. It had precious little good wrestling and an over-abundance of Chris Jericho continuing his metamorphosis into your father dancing drunkenly at a wedding. I enjoyed the Dean Ambrose/Kalisto vs. Sheamus/Del Rio tag match, and the post match to the Becky Lynch-Tamina bout furthered the Lass Kicker’s really good feud with Charlotte in effective fashion, but other than that there was little to recommend. The Royal Rumble sells itself anyway, and this week’s Raw was written by people who are aware of that and take it as an excuse to phone it in.

Mike Chin: FICTION – I do appreciate that Raw was focused on the Royal Rumble match, and that in that context a bevy of big tag matches and multi-man promo segments do make logical sense to give plenty of guys camera time and build toward Rumble sub-plots. Unfortunately, most of the best matches felt like retreads of pairings that have been driven into the ground over the last month. And while I’m being a little nitpicky, I also do feel it’s a legitimate gripe to complain about Rusev jobbing out to Roman Reigns in the opening match. No, Rusev’s not at Reigns’ kayfabe level, but it’s frustrating to see him lose this way because a year ago Rusev could have been a main event guy, and when the dust settles from WrestleMania, WWE is going to need full-time guys who are believable as main event threats. Take all of that the very best segments of the show registered as average, and you have a lackluster go-home show for what should be one of the biggest shows of the year.

6. What is your excitement level for the Royal Rumble PPV?

Jack Stevenson: 8 out of 10 – The build up for it has been patchy, but if you look at the card itself I think there’s going to be a fair amount to enjoy come Sunday. Dean Ambrose vs. Kevin Owens in a Last Man Standing match should be ace, and if Charlotte and Becky Lynch can have a match that does the quality of their storyline justice, we could see the best main roster women’s bout in years. We haven’t been treated to a really good Royal Rumble since 2010, or 2011’s mammoth 40-man edition if you’re being generous, and it’s clear that the match needs to be in the hands of agents who have much more ambition and vision than the ones handling it currently. We all remember the last two backfiring spectacularly, but even before the crowd turned so vocally on Batista and Roman Reigns they weren’t brilliant matches, feeling less like one sprawling, fluid epic, as the best ones of yore did, and instead resembling a bunch of small, not particularly interesting stories awkwardly shackled together with long passages of aimless brawling, relying almost solely on nostalgic cameos to jolt the match back into life as and when was needed. Having said all of that, it’s still the Royal fucking Rumble, and if you can’t get excited for it than you’ve officially given up hope in WWE and their power to captivate you like they used to when you first started watching. Which is enviable I suppose, since it means you can focus your attention on New Japan or Lucha Underground or whatever wrestling rewards you more than it drives you mad, but for all the rational part of my brain tells me that it won’t live up to my hype, the sentimentalist in me remembers all the tremendous Rumble moments of years gone by and tells me that the magic’s going to come back on Sunday. I can’t wait. I never can. I’m a sucker.

Mike Chin: 8 out of 10 – Despite a lackluster build and go-home show, this is the Royal Rumble. Like many fans, I’m a complete mark for this show and particularly its main event match. The focus on Roman Reigns putting the title on the line has the potential to end catastrophically if Reigns himself, or a lackluster new darling of The Authority takes the gold (if not Triple H himself). There’s the potential, however, for some terrific outcomes, like Brock Lesnar reclaiming the crown, or for Dean Ambrose to finally turning heel and stealing the title. While it isn’t likely, it’s not out of the question that someone like The Rock or Daniel Bryan could make an impact with a surprise entry. There are potential NXT appearances to account for. The WWE disabled list is enormous right now, so there are also a wealth of other guys who might come out of the woodwork. Add to all of that the outside shot of AJ Styles and the Bullet Club crew showing up, and, well, this could get very interesting. I openly admit that I’m hedging toward fantasy booking. In reality, The Rumble will probably land somewhere between the more banal likelihood and more creative possibilities. Just the same, when annual favorite like this has so many variables, I can’t help feeling optimistic.