Entering Survivor Series, Dean Ambrose’s Fans Should Temper Their Expectations

Introduction: On March 17th, 2014, the Shield attacked Director of Operations Kane when he demanded that they beat down Jerry “The King” Lawler, turning face in the process and transforming what had once been whispers amongst internet-savvy fans of the trio being the future of WWE into a full-fledged roar among even casual fans. I think it was somewhere around that point that I started seeing sentiments that Dean Ambrose would be the next “Stone Cold” Steve Austin. With Seth Rollins injured and a tournament underway for the now-vacant WWE World Heavyweight Championship, many fans are clamoring for the tournament to be Ambrose’s opportunity to finally ascend into the upper echelon of WWE performers. I would like to examine that scenario and offer my thoughts on why it could work but why Ambrose’s fans should temper their expectations.

First off, I have made no secret of my feelings of the current incarnation of the Dean Ambrose character – at this point, based on his booking since Rollins turned on the Shield last June, I believe it would take a massive overhaul of the character for him to come even remotely close to matching the success that Austin enjoyed. While at one point I was definitely on board the “Ambrose is the next Austin” train, the way WWE has treated his character has made it difficult for me to believe that the Ambrose we have seen for much of the past sixteen months is even fit to regularly main event WWE’s weekly programming, much less a Wrestlemania.

I realize that that is likely not a very popular opinion, but allow me to clarify – this has little to do with the fact that he has come up short in every major feud he has been involved in since the Shield’s breakup or even with the skills and abilities of Ambrose, and everything to do with how he has been booked. Gone is the slightly-unhinged, highly-unpredictable character that fans initially grew to love, and in his place is the fairly standard WWE “crazy” character. If you look at WWE’s recent history, booking a character like that has not been their strong suit, from AJ Lee to Alicia Fox to Bray Wyatt (who, admittedly, is supposed to be more evil and cunning than outright crazy). But Ambrose unfortunately shines as probably the single worst example of WWE’s failure to book a compelling yet unpredictable character.

Early on, it seemed like WWE was on the right track, with Ambrose attacking Rollins at every opportunity in his quest to prevent Rollins from successfully cashing in his Money in the Bank briefcase. Whether he was popping out of the trunk of Rollins’ rental car or out of a suspiciously man-sized present, it worked to highlight how Ambrose’s unconventional thinking allowed him to get inside Rollins’ head and ramp up the Money in the Bank winner’s paranoia. And it even looked like WWE was trying to play up those comparisons to Austin when Ambrose left the arena during a RAW last fall, only to return with a hot dog cart during the main event. Unfortunately, Ambrose lost every big match against Rollins and while Ambrose remained protected thanks to interference from Kane (twice) and Bray Wyatt, the match at Hell in a Cell where Wyatt cost Ambrose the match marked a definite downturn for his character.

Ambrose lost that match thanks to a holographic projection of Wyatt (that, admittedly, set up a physical attack from the bayou dweller) and that would only prove to be the first time that Wyatt was able to outsmart Ambrose (or, perhaps more accurately, Ambrose outsmarted himself). When the two met at Tables, Ladders, Chairs (and Stairs) last December, Ambrose lost because he apparently forgot how televisions worked. While the hot dog cart was borderline cartoonish and hard to take seriously, Ambrose not being able to unplug a television without it literally blowing up in his face made him look like the dumbest wrestling character since Sting*.

That kind of apparent stupidity is about as far away from what made Austin popular as you can get, yet, in spite of it, Ambrose has managed to remain popular with fans around the world. Just like with Cesaro and Dolph Ziggler, that is a testament to the man himself, and not due to his booking, though in Ambrose’s case, I will admit that it has drastically improved from “guy who walked through a record-breaking snowstorm” to “guy who hangs out with Roman Reigns”. And as much as I enjoyed Ambrose’s promo on Monday night and want to believe that it was WWE’s way of signalling that he’s returning to the more abstract definition of “crazy” that initially made him popular, the last time he vowed to win a title, after having an epiphany during the aforementioned blizzard walk that he needed to win the Intercontinental Championship, he failed to do so…and then just sort of forgot about it. And again, this is more a function of the terrible job WWE Creative does than any knock on Ambrose, but it is still enough for me to temper my expectations going into Survivor Series, regardless of what the current rumor is.

The way it looks right now, it is almost a lock that the final match of the WWE World Heavyweight Championship tournament will be between Ambrose and Roman Reigns. If you believe rumors, Reigns was going to win the title from Rollins this weekend anyway and carry it into Wrestlemania, so there is little chance that he will be upset by Alberto Del Rio in his semifinal match. (And that’s a match that will make it easy to cheer for Reigns, because my column about how WWE would not allow Del Rio to be the same dynamic performer we had seen in AAA and Lucha Underground is looking mighty prescient right now.) On the other side of the bracket, Ambrose almost has to be favored in spite of facing Intercontinental Champion Kevin Owens, just for the simple fact that it would best fit the image of WWE’s Creative team taking the path of least resistance. “Oh, a former Shield guy got hurt before he was set to face the former Shield guy Vince likes? We’ll just throw the other one in there!” In truth, it would not surprise me if Owens ended up winning just because he is a consummate heel and the WWE braintrust probably thinks that it will limit the amount of boos for Reigns’ first career world championship win. (I think we know that it would be likely to have the opposite effect, as Owens is surprisingly popular with a lot of people who are not Sabrina the Teenage Witch.)

But, in the interest of examining what Ambrose’s first world championship win would mean for him, assume Ambrose does advance past Owens and into the finals. There are three possible scenarios here, with subtle variations on each one. The first, and most boring, option, is for both guys to wrestle the match respectfully until a winner is crowned. The second is for Ambrose to turn heel on Reigns, and the third is for Reigns to turn heel on Ambrose. The variations come into play based on who wins and whether one of them joins the Authority in the process of turning heel.**

Over the past few days especially, I have read a lot of comments and other columns suggesting that Reigns turning heel and joining the Authority would be the best course of action, as Ambrose would make an excellent babyface to chase Reigns through Wrestlemania. And while fans do certainly love to cheer for Ambrose, I am afraid that this scenario would probably also be the most damaging for his future, if WWE continues to book him the way they have in the past. Think about when Rollins turned on the Shield and how dumb Ambrose became as a result of his single-minded pursuit of revenge – does that same thing happen here, only worse because it was Reigns turning on him and the title was involved? Plus, Ambrose’s moveset has been distilled down to arguably the most basic of anyone in WWE currently at a midcard level or above – he punches, he kicks, he small packages, and he does horribly contrived rebound moves (that, admittedly, the fans love), and then he either loses or wins with the Dirty Deeds. If Ambrose remains a face and chases a heel Reigns through Wrestlemania, the bulk of the load is going to be on him to make the matches exciting and unless they do a whole string of gimmick matches or allow him to open up his moveset a bit, I feel like he is going to be exposed worse than Reigns was leading up to Wrestlemania last year, as WWE is going to essentially require his matches to all follow the same basic formula – think of how predictable John Cena’s matches are and then cut his moveset in half, and tell me you still want to see four or five months of Ambrose matches. It worked for Daniel Bryan because of his sense of timing and drama, and at least Reigns has a measure of that, but both of them also have a more varied moveset than Ambrose has displayed in recent months.

On the other hand, if Ambrose is the one to turn heel and join the Authority, then his already-sparse moveset SHOULD end up getting trimmed even further, due to the popularity of those rebound clotheslines and the like. Of course, Randy Orton has never had to abandon the RKO when he turns heel, and that moves gets probably the biggest positive reaction of any move currently employed by a WWE Superstar, and I very much doubt Reigns is going to stop doing the Superman punch or the clubbing shots in the corner or the bomb kick (at least that is what his running apron kick is called in WWE Immortals, so perhaps that fear is unwarranted. Ambrose was the guy fans had pegged to turn on the Shield back when they were still together, and this scenario would have made sense back then, when Ambrose was a slicked-back slimeball type of character. But after nearly eighteen months of being a goofy babyface, it feels like a hard sell for me, without irreversibly changing Ambrose’s character, anyway. If Reigns joins the Authority, it would just be him embracing his inner heelish tendencies. If Ambrose were to join, however, he would simply be selling out, and that is something that Rollins already did. Plus, “Lunatic Fringe” lends itself to suits and corporate backing even worse than being a “Demon” does. That is not to say that I do not think that it would work, just that I think it would require the most work from WWE Creative and therefore would have the greatest chance of ending in abject failure. I also think it would be the heel turn scenario that WWE would be most likely to consider, since they seem dead-set on turning Reigns into the next Cena.

Oddly enough, in this case, I think the most boring option is probably the best one for WWE – just let Ambrose and Reigns both stay face and then move Ambrose into something else meaningful after Reigns inevitably wins the title. That way, they get the end result that they want, without having to potentially compromise a very popular character in the process.

Don’t like my analysis of Ambrose’s possible futures and want to hear some other smart guys talk about Survivor Series? One of my favorite commenters, Matt in New Jersey, is part of a three-man podcast called Raising the Briefcase. They don’t come out on a regular schedule, but there is going to be one going live sometime this weekend (maybe even by the time you’re reading this column), and you can find it here. (And believe me, I would not be plugging this podcast if I personally did not enjoy it, so if you find that you have similar views on the world of professional wrestling, give it a listen – the last one was nearly three hours long, but it was entertaining from start to finish, and I’m anxiously awaiting their Survivor Series edition.)

Wyatt Beougher is a lifelong fan of professional wrestling who has been writing for 411 for over four years and currently hosts MMA Fact or Fiction and reviews Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

*That’s not a knock on Sting, either, but on his booking, which saw him get turned on, REPEATEDLY, by everyone from the Four Horsemen (“Oh, my archenemies want to team up with me? I’m sure they’re on the up-and-up!”) to his best friend Lex Luger to Hulk Hogan. If someone has a character who was booked as dumber or more naive/trusting, I’d love to hear it, so long as you’re not talking about characters whose entire gimmick is their lack of intelligence (Eugene, Evad Sullivan).

**Truthfully, based on the feud between Daniel Bryan and Randy Orton after Summerslam 2013, it is entirely possible that they could have someone like Cesaro join the Authority and lay out both guys during the match, setting up a multi-person ladder match at TLC, but for the purpose of this column, I am willfully ignoring that option, as it opens up entirely too many additional scenarios and it would be the worst possible decision that WWE could make in terms of the four people still left in the tournament.