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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 215: Johnson vs. Borg
WELCOME:
UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson has reigned for five years and defended his title ten times. On Saturday, he aims to break Anderson Silva’s record for the most successful title defenses in UFC history when he takes on Ray Borg in the main event of UFC 215! In the co-main event, Amanda Nunes defends the women’s bantamweight title against Valentina Shevchenko! At welterweight, ex-lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos looks to take out Neil Magny. Plus, Ilir Latifi fights Tyson Pedro, Gilbert Melendez vs. Jeremy Stephens, and more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Lightweight Bout: Kajan Johnson vs. Adriano Martins
Robert Winfree: Adriano Martins, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Martins, TKO, Round 2
Heavyweight Bout: Luis Henrique vs. Arian Bhullar
Robert Winfree: Luis Henrique, Submission, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Bhullar, Decision
Lightweight Bout: Mitch Clarke vs. Alex White
Robert Winfree: Alex White, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Clarke, Decision
Featherweight Bout: Gavin Tucker vs. Rick Glenn
Robert Winfree: Gavin Tucker, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Tucker, TKO, Round 3
Bantamweight Bout: Sarah Moras vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith
Robert Winfree: Ashlee Evans-Smith, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Evans-Smith, Decision
Flyweight Bout: Henry Cejudo vs. Wilson Reis
Robert Winfree: Henry Cejudo, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Cejudo, Decision
Bantamweight Bout: Sara McMann vs. Ketlen Viera
Robert Winfree: Sara McMann, Submission, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: McMann, Decision
THE MAIN CARD:
Featherweight Bout: Jeremy Stephens vs. Gilbert Melendez
Robert Winfree: It’s kind of crazy to realize that Gilbert Melendez is just 1-4 in the UFC and that his only win is over Diego Sanchez. Now he’s trying to reinvent himself at featherweight, a somewhat tricky proposition given his age and recent performances. Jeremy Stephens is basically the same fighter at featherweight he was at lightweight, he’s a decent striker who has a reputation for powerful punches that isn’t quite as borne out by evidence as you would think. These two are going to throw at each other, if Melendez still has something left in the tank he should win this fight between his high output and varied offense but I think he’s too far past his prime and Stephens takes this.
Winner: Jeremy Stephens, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Like Robert, I think Melendez has seen much better days, and he has a lot of wear and tear on him. To add to that, he hasn’t been active recently (fighting only once in 2015 and 2016) and this is his first fight at featherweight in twelve years. At his best, Melendez wins a comfortable decision against Stephens. Today, I lean toward Stephens earning a close decision.
Winner: Stephens, Decision
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ilir Latifi vs. Tyson Pedro
Robert Winfree: Tyson Pedro has finished his two UFC fights thus far and is being promoted from the prospect circuit towards the legitimate end of the division. Ilir Latifi is a solid fighter, he’s strong as an ox with a good clinch game and the ability to generate some power in his punches. He tends to fade as fights go and is significantly shorter than most of the division, he can also be a tad predictable in terms of his transitions from striking to wrestling. Pedro is young in the sport and this could be a case of too much too soon, but I think he fights smart and is able to take Latifi out.
Winner: Tyson Pedro, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Pedro has mad power, however he is untested against a fighter of Latifi’s caliber. Latifi is a stocky wrestler with big power as well. I suspect Latifi will win on the ground.
Winner: Latifi, TKO, Round 2
Welterweight Bout: Neil Magny vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Robert Winfree: This is a really solid welterweight fight. Neil Magny was on a heck of a run before he failed to prepare for the leg kicks and speed of Lorenz Larkin. Magny has a ton of ability, he knows how to fight long has a decent wrestling game and solid grappling once things hit the mat. The biggest knock on Magny is that he struggles when pressured, he’s done well to mitigate elements of that by becoming better at circling but he’s still at his best when he can analyze and out technique an opponent rather than when he gets into a down and dirty dog fight. Rafael dos Anjos is a pressure fighter through and through, a trait he developed after struggling with the pressure of others. I can see either man winning but with the game of dos Anjos revolving around pushing you into uncomfortable positions against the fence, a good takedown game once you’re there, and some really solid smash guard passing I just lean towards him a bit in this match up.
Winner: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This is a really interesting match-up. The physical disparity will be striking. Magny has seven inches of height and ten inches of reach on dos Anjos, who has certainly had success against larger fighters (Nate Diaz, Donald Cerrone), but never faced someone quite so tall. Despite the physical differences, I lean toward dos Anjos.- he simply has more weapons – but it won’t be easy.
Winner: dos Anjos, Decision
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout: Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Robert Winfree: I don’t have a whole lot to say differently this time around than I did the last time these two were supposed to fight. Nunes needs to find success early, be it with hard punches or top control. She needs to control the pace of the fight to avoid fatiguing as it goes longer. Nunes has good striking, but she’s in there with a great striker in Shevchenko. The biggest skill differential here seems to be Nunes in top position, though Shevchenko isn’t easy to get down. I tend to see this going the same way their last fight did, Nunes succeeds early but slows down as Shevchenko gets a read on her and with a whole two other rounds to play with I’m leaning towards Shevchenko.
Winner: Valentina Shevchenko, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This is the almost entirely the same story as when these two were supposed to fight two months ago. Nunes is always strong early, but fades late. Shevchenko has proven to be strong late in fights. The only added caveat this time around is more doubt regarding Nunes’ weight cutting because of the odd circumstances that forced her out of the fight in July on fight day. Shevchenko survives the early going and wins late.
Winner: Shevchenko, TKO, Round 5
UFC Flyweight Championship Bout: Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg
Dan Plunkett: Borg has shown to be a great fighter in his past two outings, but Johnson is levels above him. I’m going with “Mighty Mouse” in a rout.
Winner: Johnson, Decision
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