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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2

December 2, 2017 | Posted by Dan Plunkett
UFC 218 Jose Aldo Max Holloway

WELCOME:
Jose Aldo gets his rematch with Max Holloway with the featherweight title hanging in the balance at UFC 218! In the co-main event, Francis Ngannou looks to continue his ascent to title contention when he takes on Alistair Overeem. Before that, flyweight contenders meet as Henry Cejudo fights Sergio Pettis. At lightweight, violence is assured when Eddie Alvarez meets Justin Gaethje. Plus, Tecia Torres vs. Michelle Waterson, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’s 411’s Jack of All Trades, Jeffrey Harris!

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • And your host for this roundtable, Dan Plunkett!

    THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
    The first four prelims on stream UFC Fight Pass. The rest air on Fox Sports 1.
    Strawweight Bout: Amanda Cooper vs. Angela Magaña

    Jeffrey Harris: Amanda Cooper, TKO Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Amanda Cooper, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Cooper, Decision
    The staff picks Amanda Cooper, 3-0.

    Heavyweight Bout: Justin Willis vs. Allen Crowder

    Jeffrey Harris: Justin Willis, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Justin Willis, TKO, Round 1
    Dan Plunkett: Willis, Decision
    The staff picks Justin Willis, 3-0.

    Light Heavyweight Bout: Jeremy Kimball vs. Dominick Reyes

    Jeffrey Harris: Jeremy Kimball, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Dominick Reyes, TKO, Round 1
    Dan Plunkett: Reyes, KO, Round 1
    The staff picks Dominick Reyes, 2-1.

    Welterweight Bout: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Sabah Homasi

    Jeffrey Harris: Abdul Razak Alhassan, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Sabam Homasi, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Alhassan, Decision
    The staff picks Abdul Razak Alhassan, 2-1.

    Strawweight Bout: Felice Herrig vs. Cortney Casey

    Jeffrey Harris: Felice Herrig, Decision
    Robert Winfree: Cortney Casey, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Herrig, Decision
    The staff picks Felice Herrig, 2-1.

    Lightweight Bout: David Teymur vs. Drakkar Klose

    Jeffrey Harris: David Teymur, TKO, Round 1
    Robert Winfree: Drakkar Klose, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Klose, Decision
    The staff picks Drakkar Klose, 2-1.

    Welterweight Bout: Alex Oliveira vs. Yancy Medeiros

    Jeffrey Harris: Alex Oliveira, Submission, Round 2
    Robert Winfree: Alex Oliveira, Submission, Round 2
    Dan Plunkett: Oliveira, TKO, Round 2
    The staff picks Alex Oliveira, 3-0.

    Lightweight Bout: Charles Oliveira vs. Paul Felder

    Jeffrey Harris: Paul Felder, TKO, Round 3
    Robert Winfree: Paul Felder, Decision
    Dan Plunkett: Oliveira, Submission, Round 2
    The staff picks Paul Felder, 2-1.


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Strawweight Bout: Tecia Torres vs. Michelle Waterson

    Jeffrey Harris: This is a very good fight between two top-ranked strawweight fighters. Tecia Torres made some noted improvements in her last outing, submitting Juliana Lima. That was the first finish of her MMA career. Michelle Waterson is a longtime veteran who finally made it to the UFC and had some early success, beating the likes of Angela Magaña and Paige VanZant. I like Waterson here. Torres is a decent fighter, but I believe Waterson is better in pretty much every area. I believe if any fighter can finish this fight, it’s likely Waterson, who will get Torres to the mat and then submit her. The Karate Hottie wins it here.

    Winner: Michelle Waterson, Submission, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: Both of these women are on the small side for the division but Waterson is actually better suited down at atomweight. Torres is a pressure fighter, both women are strikers generally but I’ve yet to see Waterson effectively deal with constant pressure from a good striker so I’m leaning towards Torres.

    Winner: Tecia Torres, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: This is a closely matched fight, but I like Torres. She is more consistent, I like her striking a bit better than Waterson’s, and she can win the fight on top.

    Winner: Torres, Decision

    The staff picks Tecia Torres, 2-1.


    Lightweight Bout: Eddie Alvarez vs. Justin Gaethje

    Jeffrey Harris: This has potential to be an absolute barn-burner. Both guys can be very aggressive power strikers. Both guys don’t mind throwing caution into the wind and just start swinging for the fences. Between the two, I believe Eddie Alvarez is the more technical boxer with probably some better footwork. However, I think Alvarez has a lot more miles and has taken a lot more big damage in these type of fights than Gaethje. I believe if these guys get into a fire fight and someone goes down, the likely recipient will be Alvarez. I’m hoping for a great exciting fight here. My hope is that it doesn’t turn into a scenario where both guys get gun shy and are paying each other too much respect on the feet.

    Winner: Justin Gaethje, TKO, Round 2

    Robert Winfree: Violence! I love this fight so much. Both of these guys are accomplished fighters with well rounded skills, and both don’t mind at all tossing that aside in favor of trying to take their opponents head off. Eddie Alvarez will likely try to wrestle here, but Gaethje is a great wrestler and Alvarez can easily be goaded into a brawl. Gaethje wants you to brawl with him because he’s a very technical fighter and he can exploit every opening you leave him. Both guys are going to get rocked, blood will be shed, and every other fight will be hoping to take Fight of the Night honors from this one, but at the end I think Alvarez just makes too many bad decisions against a guy who fights like Gaethje does.

    Winner: Justin Gaethje, TKO, Round 2

    Dan Plunkett: This could be the best fight. Alvarez has more wear, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to wrestle with Gaethje. However, he won’t have an easy time taking Gaethje down or controlling him, so the large portion of the fight will likely be contested at a distance. I think both fighters will get hurt, but Gaethje will pull through because he has less mileage on him and his recovery is second-to-none.

    Winner: Gaethje, TKO, Round 2

    The staff picks Justin Gaethje, TKO, Round 2


    Flyweight Bout: Henry Cejudo vs. Sergio Pettis

    Jeffrey Harris: Depending on how things pan out, either one of these guys could be fighting for the flyweight title soon. Sergio Pettis has put together a four-fight winning streak at flyweight. A in here would certainly put him next in line for a title shot. However, he’s facing a tough challenge here in the Olympic gold medal winner, Henry Cejudo. Cejudo has rebounded well since his loss to Demetrious Johnson for the belt. He did have a controversial split decision loss to Joseph Benavidez. But he followed that up with a dynamite knockout win over former title contender Wilson Reis. Pettis won’t be able to out-wrestle Cejudo. Cejudo’s boxing and striking seems to be gradually improving, and Pettis is decent but he’s not able to put together those stunning wins. I think Cejudo gets the win here and just dominates Pettis from start to finish.

    Winner: Henry Cejudo, Decision

    Robert Winfree: This likely crowns the next title challenger given how the talks for Demetrious Johnson vs. TJ Dillashaw seem to have stalled out. Pettis is a very good fighter, but he hasn’t really shown that little something extra to go from good to great. By contrast Henry Cejudo has demonstrated that he is a great fighter. Pettis struggles if the fight isn’t clean and I think Cejudo can force an ugly fight, Cejudo also packs significantly more power in his strikes. I’m leaning towards Cejudo here and I think we get a rematch between him and DJ.

    Winner: Henry Cejudo, TKO, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: There are such an abundance of great fights on this card that this great fight is flying under the radar. Cejudo had made big strides since he was defeated by Demetrious Johnson last year. First he fought closely against Joseph Benavidez, dropping a decision that I felt he won, and then he dominated Wilson Reis three months ago. After perhaps entering the UFC a little too early, Pettis has come into his own, but I think he still has some developing to do before we see his best version. Conversely, Cejudo is on the cusp of his best version, with his hands making strong improvements to go along with his Olympic gold medal in wrestling. I have Cejudo.

    Winner: Cejudo, TKO, Round 2

    The staff picks Henry Cejudo, 3-0.


    Heavyweight Bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Francis Ngannou

    Jeffrey Harris: All roads to the title for Francis Ngannou lead through Alistair Overeem, a man who also wants to earn another opportunity at UFC heavyweight gold; the one accolade that has eluded him his entire career. Ngannou is the rising contender everyone wants to see fight for the belt next. His punching power is scary. This is also a good step up in competition for him. He’s undefeated in the UFC, but even as far as heavyweight goes, he hasn’t faced really tough challenges like this. Overeem is a K1 level striker, but it’s a bit frustrating that he rarely uses straight punches in his fights. Overeem’s gotten cracked in the face and been put out multiple times in his UFC career. We haven’t really seen Ngannou get tested yet, but I think he will be able to reach Ngannou’s face and put him away, likely putting him in line for a shot at Stipe Miocic. Hopefully, the fight ends quickly and it doesn’t become a long, slow and sloppy heavyweight fight.

    Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 1

    Robert Winfree: I’ve gone back and forth on this one quite a bit. Alistair Overeem is a very accomplished fighter, lately he’s started putting combinations together when he feels safe to do so in addition to moving a lot more. Overeem still snipes well from distance with kicks to the leg and body in addition to being able to fight from either stance. While Ngannou has looked like a monster thus far he’s not faced a good striker or a mobile heavyweight, two important things he’ll have to deal with in this bout. We’ve yet to see Ngannou deal with a tactical opponent either. The biggest thing Ngannou has going for him is raw power and some pretty solid punching technique. I’m leaning towards Ngannou mostly because of that power, but I wont be surprised if he can’t adjust to what Overeem brings and this winds up being too much too soon for him.

    Winner: Francis Ngannou, TKO, Round 2

    Dan Plunkett: The momentum is in Ngannou’s favor, and logic says that if he touches Overeem with a strong shot, it’s over. However, I can’t shake the fact that Overeem is a significantly better striker than anyone Ngannou has faced, and Overeem has a more diverse arsenal of weapons to win the fight. I’m leaning toward Overeem.

    Winner: Overeem, Decision

    The staff picks Francis Ngannou, 2-1.


    UFC Featherweight Bout: Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo

    Jeffrey Harris: Jose Aldo gets a rematch and opportunity to redeem himself against the “Blessed” new champion, Max Holloway. I’m a bit irked this rematch is happening. I know Holloway was set to face Frankie Edgar, but Edgar got injured and UFC went with a rematch instead. My concern is that if Aldo wins, it will just be a game of musical chair rematches that could log jam the division. Generally, I don’t pick against Max Holloway. It’s served me well for quite some time, and I won’t pick against him here. Aldo has generally lacked that killer instinct in the UFC. It’s a killer instinct that Holloway has in spades. I can see Aldo maybe taking a round or two, but Holloway will eventually adjust, which he is great at, find Aldo’s patterns and put him away; similar to their first fight. Holloway wins.

    Winner: Max Holloway, TKO, Round 4

    Robert Winfree: Much as I’m bummed we didn’t get Frankie Edgar in this spot, I enjoyed everything about the fights fight these two had and am looking forward to the rematch. Jose Aldo is still the best featherweight ever, though Holloway is knocking on the door of that particular title as well. I don’t want to sell Aldo short as he’s a tremendous fighter, but there are things about this match up that will always favor Holloway. Holloway fights long and Aldo has historically struggled with that. Holloway also adjusts minute to minute better than anyone in the sport, he has a diverse striking attack and great footwork. I tend to see this going the same way as their first bout, Aldo sees some success early then Holloway picks up on what he’s doing and makes him pay for it.

    Winner: Max Holloway, TKO, Round 3

    Dan Plunkett: Aldo can do things this time around that can swing the fight in his favor. Let it not be lost that he won two full rounds from Holloway before being finished in the third. Two key factors push me toward Holloway: his length, which will allow him to punch Aldo from a distance at which Aldo can’t hit him back (which led to the knockdown before the finish in the first fight), and his fearless aggression. Holloway hasn’t fought for 25 minutes since the third fight of his career more than six years ago, but somehow, I have no doubt that he won’t be any less of a handful in round five than in round three.

    Winner: Holloway, TKO, Round 4

    The staff picks Max Holloway, 3-0.


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