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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
WELCOME:
After a chaotic week, Khabib Nurmagomedov gets a chance at the lightweight title when he faces Al Iaquinta in the main event of UFC 223! In the co-main event, Joanna Jędrzejczyk is out for revenge when she battles strawweight champion Rose Namajunas! At featherweight, Renato Moicano takes on Calvin Kattar. Plus, Zabit Magomedsharipov fights Kyle Bochniak, Joe Lauzon vs. Chris Gruetzemacher, and more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
All four preliminary bouts air on Fox Sports 1.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Devin Clark vs. Mike Rodriguez
Jeffrey Harris: Devin Clark, Decision
Robert Winfree: Devin Clark, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Clark, Decision
The staff picks Devin Clark, 3-0.
Flyweight Bout: Bec Rawlings vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith
Jeffrey Harris: Ashlee Evans-Smith, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Ashlee Evans-Smith, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Evans-Smith, Decision
The staff picks Ashlee Evans-Smith, 3-0.
Lightweight Bout: Evan Dunham vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Jeffrey Harris: Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Decision
Robert Winfree: Evan Dunham, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Dunham, Decision
The staff picks Evan Dunham, 2-1.
Strawweight Bout: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Felice Herrig
Jeffrey Harris: Karolina Kowalkiewicz, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Kowalkiewicz, Decision
The staff picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, 3-0.
THE MAIN CARD:
Lightweight Bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Chris Gruetzemacher
Jeffrey Harris: Joe Lauzon, Submission, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Joe Lauzon, Submission, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Lauzon, Decision
The staff picks Joe Lauzon, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Kyle Bochniak
Jeffrey Harris: Zabit Magomedsharipov, Decision
Robert Winfree: Zabit Magomedsharipov, Submission, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: Magomedsharipov, Submission, Round 1
The staff picks Zabit Magomedsharipov, 3-0.
Featherweight Bout: Renato Moicano vs. Calvin Kattar
Jeffrey Harris: Both fighters are decent prospect, but I’m not sure this fight warranted a spot on the main card over some of the strong match-ups that are on the prelims for this fight. Calvin Kattar is coming off two strong early wins in the UFC over Andre Fili and Shane Burgos. Renato Moicano is 3-1 and looks to rebound after a loss to top contender Brian Ortega last July. He does hold a decision win over top-ranked featherweight Jeremy Stephens by split decision. I like Kattar here. I think this will be a tough fight, but ultimately, Kattar will pick up a dominant victory.
Winner: Calvin Kattar, Decision
Robert Winfree: Decent enough prospect fight here. Calvin Kattar opened a few eyes, mine among them, after his win over Shane Burgos in his last fight. Moicano has put a lot of work into his striking, he beat Jeremy Stephens by consistently hitting and moving as Stephens tried to rush him, but his jiu jitsu game is what should stand out to most people and I feel that’s the deciding factor here. Kattar and Moicano on the feet slightly favors Kattar but on the mat Moicano has a significant advantage and I think he’ll be able to force the fight there.
Winner: Renato Moicano, Submission, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Kattar was impressive in January against Shane Burgos and hasn’t lost since 2010. Moicano was unbeaten until Brian Ortega submitted him last July, which is his most recent fight. Like Robert, I think Moicano takes this to the ground and gets the win.
Winner: Moicano, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Renato Moicano, 2-1.
UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship Bout: Rose Namajunas vs. Joanna Jędrzejczyk
Jeffrey Harris: I loved Joanna Jędrzejczyk as champion and her fights. I was shocked when Rose Namajunas beat her and won the title. I didn’t see her beating her in that way or fashion for a million years. Even with Joanna Jędrzejczyk having such a dominant title run, I really don’t like this fight. It just seems that making an immediate rematch here was premature. The fight wasn’t controversial. It wasn’t a close five-round decision. It wasn’t a draw. It wasn’t a split decision. Namajunas decisively finished Joanna Jędrzejczyk. It was a stunning upset yet, but she still cleaned her clock. While I picked Joanna Jędrzejczyk the first time, I’m not as confident as picking her this time around. Something just makes me think that Thug Rose knows exactly what to do against here. And while I love Joanna Jędrzejczyk, I would rather see her lose and take some time off and then move up in weight. It just seems like strawweight is a tough cut for her, and there are more potential titles and fights for her future at flyweight. I think Rose Namajunas is a superior grappler, but that didn’t even really come into play for the first fight. A part of me thinks Joanna Jędrzejczyk is deluding her own mind about why she lost the first fight, but we shall see.
Winner: Rose Namajunas, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: I tend to think of this fight as a massive waste of everyone’s time. I’m not big on immediate rematches, especially when the first fight was decisive. You could argue the first fight between these two wasn’t even competitive, Namajunas blew Jedrzejczyk out of the water. This is a really odd clash of known vs. unknown, we all know what Jedrzejczyk brings to the table and by contrast Namajunas tends to be all over the place which I tend to think contributes to Namajunas’ success against a precision fighter like Jedrzejczyk. Namajunas is content to fight a slower paced fight, feint to draw out counters from Jedrzejczyk and then counter those. Namajunas doesn’t throw much in combination, and her combinations tend to end after two blows, but by timing them after her opponent exposes themselves they work. The grappling also favors Namajunas to a significant degree. In reality what Namajunas did in the first fight is what she should do in this one, though a few things could be added, while Jedrzejczyk needs a significant over haul in terms of strategy. Where Jedrzejczyk has been playing matador, in excellent fashion, for her last couple of fights she can’t afford to fight a slow pace against Namajunas or wait for the champion to over commit to attacking her because Namajunas won’t engage on those terms. Jedrzejczyk needs to push the pace more this time and be the aggressor rather than the matador, also going to the body has been successful against Namajunas in the past and she should work to integrate her straight right to the body this time. As for the outcome, I still lean towards Namajunas and look forward to Jedrzejczyk moving up to flyweight in the immediate future.
Winner: Rose Namajunas, Submission, Round 3
Dan Plunkett: It’s weird because I was very confident in picking Joanna last time, and Namajunas crushed her. Namajunas clearly had a path to victory on the ground, but I didn’t see her tagging and hurting Joanna so consistently. Now, I like Joanna the most in the clinch. She should have a real advantage over Namajunas there. But other than that? I see it for Thug Rose.
Winner: Namajunas, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Rose Namajunas, 3-0.
Half-Title UFC Lightweight Championship Bout: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Al Iaquinta
Dan Plunkett: For those not following, here’s how we got here:
April 1 – UFC announces that Tony Ferguson is out of his lightweight title fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and that featherweight champion Max Holloway will replace him.
April 5 – Conor McGregor & Friends attack a bus.
April 5 – Due to injuries sustained in the bus attack, Michael Chiesa (scheduled to fight Anthony Pettis) and Ray Borg (scheduled to fight Brandon Moreno) are pulled from the card. Artem Lobov, one of the Friends of “Conor McGregor and Friends,” is pulled from his fight with Alex Caceres due to his participation in the bus attack.
April 6 – The New York State Athletic Commission deems Max Holloway medically unable to fight.
April 6 – UFC targets Anthony Pettis to replace Holloway against Nurmagomedov. Pettis missed the 155-pound weight limit and was not allowed another chance to weigh-in. Reportedly, the Commission also did not approve him for a five-round bout.
April 6 – UFC turns to Paul Felder, who hit the 155-pound mark. Reportedly, the Commission turns down Felder as a match for Nurmagomedov because Felder is not currently ranked in UFC’s rankings.
April 6 – Al Iaquinta saves the day by agreeing to fight Nurmagomedov, and the Commission allows it. Iaquinta weighed in at 155.2 pounds, making him technically ineligible to compete for the lightweight title. However, someone weighed Iaquinta’s underwear, and it came to 0.2 pounds. So while technically Nurmagomedov is the only fighter eligible to win the title, the UFC will make Iaquinta the lightweight champion if he wins.
It’s been a ridiculous few days. The only way it could go worse for the UFC is if Iaquinta, who doesn’t have the best relationship with the promotion and is the lesser name of the two. So that’s probably what will happen.
Winner: Raging Al, KO, Round 1
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