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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
WELCOME:
UFC returns to Chicago with its best card to date in 2018! In the main event, Robert Whittaker looks to best Yoel Romero in a middleweight title rematch! In the co-main event, Rafael dos Anjos and Colby Covington duke it out for the interim welterweight championship. In featherweight action, Holly Holm fights Megan Anderson with a probable title shot hanging in the balance. At heavyweight, Tai Tuivasa looks to boost his profile against former champion Andrei Arlovski. Plus, CM Punk aims for his first career win when he fights Mike Jackson, and more!
THE STAFF:
THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First four bouts on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Featherweight Bout: Mike Santiago vs. Dan Ige
Jeffrey Harris: Mike Santiago, Decision
Robert Winfree: Mike Santiago, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Santiago, Decision
Lightweight Bout: Clay Guida vs. Charles Oliveira
Jeffrey Harris: Charles Oliveira, Decision
Robert Winfree: Charles Oliveira, Submission, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Oliveira, Submission, Round 2
Flyweight Bout: Joseph Benavidez vs. Sergio Pettis
Jeffrey Harris: Joseph Benavidez, Decision
Robert Winfree: Joseph Benavidez, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Benavidez, Decision
Light Heavyweight Bout: Rashad Evans vs. Anthony Smith
Jeffrey Harris: Anthony Smith, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Anthony Smith, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Smith, Decision
Heavyweight Bout: Rashad Coulter vs. Chris de la Rocha
Jeffrey Harris: Rashad Coulter, Decision
Robert Winfree: Rashad Coulter, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Coulter, TKO, Round 1
Featherweight Bout: Ricardo Lamas vs. Mirsad Bektic
Jeffrey Harris: Ricardo Lamas, Decision
Robert Winfree: Mirsad Bektic, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Bektic, TKO, Round 1
Strawweight Bout: Claudia Gadelha vs. Carla Esparza
Jeffrey Harris: Claudia Gadelha, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Claudia Gadelha, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Gadelha, Decision
Heavyweight Bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Curtis Blaydes
Jeffrey Harris: Alistair Overeem, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Alistair Overeem, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Overeem, TKO, Round 2
THE MAIN CARD:
Welterweight Bout: CM Punk vs. Mike Jackson
Jeffrey Harris: Alright. Here we go. Technically, it’s CM Punk’s second fight in MMA. Even though his MMA debut wasn’t much of a fight. Granted, CM Punk was facing an opponent in that fight he really should’ve been nowhere in the cage with. Mike Jackson is at least more of an amateur-level opponent, even though I still think he’s going to wipe the floor with Punk. I’d feel more confident about Punk’s chances if he had some sort of actual martial arts or athletic background. Yeah, he’s been a pro-wrestler since he was a kid. And you definitely need to be tough and athletic to do that, but that’s not the same thing as competitive wrestling, kickboxing, jiujitsu, etc. Jackson at least has a martial arts background, and I see no reason how Punk walks away from this with a win. He’s making an extreme weight cut down to 170 pounds. He’s 39 years old, and he has no actual martial arts background to speak of. He won’t win.
Winner: Mike Jackson, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: I really think this is a massive waste of everyone’s time, unless Punk’s drawing power is greater than estimated and the UFC just desperately needs a financial win. I don’t mind watching low level MMA when I want to watch low level MMA, and I have no desire to watch low level MMA when I’m watching a UFC event. This is the first time in at least a decade that two fighters in the UFC have been battling for their first professional win, and quite frankly if I want to see that there are a couple of local MMA promotions that have regional access TV deals I can watch when I’ve got insomnia and have no interest in seeing it on the UFC platform. As for the action, Punk probably looks to grapple while Jackson looks to strike and we all need to hope it ends soon because if it goes over seven minutes it’s gonna get even uglier.
Winner: Mike Jackson, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: How do you even break this one down? On youth and credentials, Jackson has an edge, but it’s not as though either has proved anything. Based on what we know, I have to go with Jackson, but who knows.
Winner: Jackson, TKO, Round 2
Heavyweight Bout: Andrei Arlovski vs. Tai Tuivasa
Jeffrey Harris: This fight is on the main card because the UFC hopes they have a new, strong heavyweight prospect in Tai Tuivasa. That’s something the heavyweight division is in desperate need of right now; some new blood. Andrei Arlovski is coming off two wins. But one of those was over the mediocre Junior Albini. Another one was over a very battle-worn Stefan Struve, who hasn’t been a major player at heavyweight in years. Tai Tuivasa is only seven fights into his MMA career. He’s only 2-0 in the UFC. He’s a former pro kickboxer who has made the jump to MMA. Andrei Arlovski definitely has experience on his side here, but not especially his age. He’s shown to be very chinny in the past, including his second run in the UFC, and Tuivasa hits hard. I imagine this will be another fight of Arlovski playing the gatekeeper, test role to a younger, up-and-coming heavyweight fighter. Arlovski is an all-time great, but Tuivasa has to win this to continue ascending through the ranks and hopefully becoming a player in this weight class.
Winner: Tai Tuivasa, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Andrei Arlovski has been enjoying a mild career resurgence (again) by remembering that there’s grappling in MMA. I’m not sure that will work here against Tuivasa, who is still a bit of a wild man but has taken a lot of his techniques from how Mark Hunt rose to MMA prominence. Tuivasa is good about underhooking with his lead hand and throwing a right when his opponent tries to close distance, he’s got heavy leg kicks but doesn’t use them all that often, and is prone to intermittent bursts of crazy offense. Given Arlovski’s chin and reliance on grappling recently I feel like they’re paving the way for Tuivasa to move into the contender que.
Winner: Tai Tuivasa, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: This fight is here so Tai Tuivasa can knock out Andrei Arlovski and chug beer out of a shoe. I’m sure at least one of those things happens Saturday night.
Winner: Tuivasa, TKO, Round 1
Featherweight Bout: Holly Holm vs. Megan Anderson
Jeffrey Harris: Well, a featherweight fight without Cyborg is actually happening in the UFC. That’s something at least. In terms of how they match up, I like Holly Holm’s chances here. She did lose against Cyborg, but she held her own. Megan Anderson is also coming off an extremely long layoff. Holm is good at maintaining distance and has adapted her boxing and kickboxing game fairly well to MMA. Megan Anderson isn’t a world class grappler, so I don’t see her giving Holm many problems there. I expect Holm to eke out a decision.
Winner: Holly Holm, Decision
Robert Winfree: I don’t have a whole lot here, the layoff for Anderson shouldn’t be overlooked but the mileage on Holm at this point might mitigate it. Anderson is a big girl and should have a size advantage but will have to force Holm to fight at angles instead of in straight lines because if she engages in purely technical terms that gives Holm a lot of ways to win the fight. I’m picking Anderson here, but it’s very speculative.
Winner: Megan Anderson, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Anderson’s long layoff plus lack of experience against anyone at Holm’s level makes me lean toward the former champion here.
Winner: Holm, Decision
UFC Interim Welterweight Championship Bout: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Colby Covington
Jeffrey Harris: No matter what you say or think about Colby Covington, the man has earned a big fight. Even if his comments are insincere or cringey…they worked, didn’t they? Now, he gets to be in a UFC title bout, interim or not. Yes, interim titles are silly and meaningless. But on the checks, it works the same as being UFC champion, so obviously, fighters are more incentivized to want to fight for interim belts. Colby Covington is a good athlete and wrestler. However, I don’t see him overcoming this particular challenge. Rafael dos Anjos looks like he’s completely revitalized his career and gotten a second wind at welterweight. Dos Anjos will be too much for Covington and will be too well-rounded. I see Rafael dos Anjos controlling this fight where ever it goes and dominating Covington for five rounds.
Winner: Colby Covington, Decision
Robert Winfree: This fight really only goes one of two ways, either Covington is able to out wrestle dos Anjos over five rounds or he’s not. Dos Anjos can be out wrestled, and Covington is the first strong hard nosed wrestler he’s faced since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Dos Anjos has more overall tools, his striking is much better, his clinch striking and in fighting is better outside of Covington getting a rear waist lock and transitioning to a double leg then just repeating that process as his opponent wall walks, and dos Anjos has demonstrated superior cardio. The issue is that he can be out wrestled, and while Covington is a one trick pony in many respects that trick is good enough to beat a lot of guys. I like dos Anjos overall, but don’t be shocked if Covington is able to wear on him over the distance and then finds himself without any hope against Woodley.
Winner: Rafael dos Anjos, Decision
Dan Plunkett: This is better as a five-rounder than a three-rounder, so I guess that’s the benefit of the nonsensical interim title. Dos Anjos is excellent, and he’ll piece Covington up on the feet. However, he’s fighting a bigger wrestler that will keep coming at him. It’s a tough fight to call, but I think Covington will grind it out.
Winner: Covington, Decision
UFC Middleweight Championship Bout: Robert Whittaker vs. Yoel Romero
Jeffrey Harris: This is a rematch from UFC 213, but it’s a fairly good one. I picked Robert Whittaker for that fight, and I’m picking him again here. I believe he just has a tricky style and gas tank that will be too much for Romero, who has had cardio problems in the past. Heck, he even took a whole round off against Whittaker in their first fight. Romero is an excellent wrestler, and he has insane levels of knockout power. However, he wasn’t even able to Whittaker to the mat in their first fight. Whittaker is also an experienced wrestler. Maybe not on Romero’s level but he can hold his own. That’s why he’s done such a good job at taking the fights where he needs them to be in his rise to the top of the middleweight division. Whittaker wins this fight and holds onto the UFC Middleweight Championship.
Winner: Robert Whittaker, Decision
Robert Winfree: I really liked their first fight, Romero’s fast start and overall athletic prowess then Whittaker’s wrecked lead leg forcing him to completely audible his entire fight strategy but doing so successfully. There are a few things Romero has to do differently here, one is energy management and the other is securing position off of takedowns. For a guy as adept at getting people to the mat as Romero is he can struggle to keep them there, of course when he does he tends to smash them. I’m not going to discount Romero’s chances here but I feel this fight goes in similar fashion to their first except that Romero’s recent work on his stand up might actually back fire, Whittaker keeps him fighting at a decent pace and then picks at holes in his defense as times goes on leading to a finish.
Winner: Robert Whittaker, TKO, Round 4
Dan Plunkett: Romero is extremely dangerous. Even at 41, and even late in fights when it looks like he’s slowed down, he has the explosion to end it. Whittaker was able to avoid those explosions last year, and ultimately won a very competitive fight. It’s also worth noting Whittaker beat Romero on one good leg, after Romero hurt Whittaker’s left knee early in the fight. I’m picking Whittaker to edge Romero again, but Romero will be dangerous the whole time.
Winner: Whittaker, Decision
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