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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
WELCOME:
For the first time in two years, Lyoto Machida returns in the cage to face Derek Brunson in the main event of UFC Fight Night! In the co-main event, Demian Maia looks to curb Colby Covington’s momentum. At bantamweight, Pedro Munhoz fights Rob Font. In lightweight action, Francisco Trinaldo takes on Jim Miller. Plus, Thiago Santos faces Jack Hermansson, and John Lineker vs. Marlon Vera!
THE STAFF:
Preliminary Card
UFC Fight Pass
Heavyweight Bout: Christian Colombo vs. Marcelo Golm
Flyweight Bout: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Jarred Brooks
Fox Sports 2
Welterweight Bout: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Max Griffin
Lightweight Bout: Hacran Dias vs. Jared Gordon
Middleweight Bout: Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Jack Marshman
Welterweight Bout: Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price
THE MAIN CARD:
Bantamweight Bout: John Lineker vs. Marlon Vera
Jonathan Solomon: John Lineker, Decision
Robert Winfree: John Lineker, TKO, Round 3
Jeffrey Harris: John Lineker, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks John Lineker, 3-0.
Middleweight Bout: Thiago Santos vs. Jack Hermansson
Jonathan Solomon: Jack Hermansson, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Thiago Santos, TKO, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Thiago Santos, TKO, Round 1
The staff picks Thiago Santos, 2-1.
Lightweight Bout: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Jim Miller
Jonathan Solomon: Jim Miller is 0-2 this year with a pair of decision losses to Dustin Poirier and Anthony Pettis. He has not won since last November when he beat an overweight Thiago Alves. He’s up against 39-year-old Franciso Trinaldo who had his seven fight win streak end in March when he was choked out by Kevin Lee. This is a big fight for Trinaldo as a loss will totally derail any realistic hope of becoming a title contender. He will not drop this fight.
Winner: Francisco Trinaldo, Decision
Robert Winfree: A couple of old war horses going to battle, this one should be fun. Neither man is getting into the title picture, Miller is on the downside of his career and while Trinaldo recently had a seven fight winning streak he’s also nearly 40. Miller has some good elements to his game still but he’s started struggling the longer a fight goes. Trinaldo has a decent pace and is the more accomplished striker. The big factor here is Trinaldo’s takedown defense, which is exemplary. I’ll be rooting for Miller but I tend to lean towards Trinaldo.
Winner: Francisco Trinaldo, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: This is actually a pretty good fight for the lightweight division, even if Jim Miller’s career has seen better days. Believe it or not, Francisco Trinaldo recently was on a seven-fight winning streak in the UFC that got snapped by former interim title contender Kevin Lee. Overall, he boasts a 10-4 record inside the UFC, which is nothing to sneeze at. Miller might be slowing down a little, but I think he’s still good enough to handle a fighter such as Trinaldo. Both men are well-rounded, but I don’t think Trinaldo has anything Miller hasn’t seen or been able to deal with before. I expect a tough fight, but Miller comes out on top.
Winner: Jim Miller, Decision
The staff picks Francisco Trinaldo, 2-1.
Bantamweight Bout: Pedro Munhoz vs. Rob Font
Jonathan Solomon: Pedro is on a three fight win streak in the UFC and is looking to get into the Top 15 in a crowded bantamweight division. Rob Font is still looking for a statement win, something that eluded him when he fought John Lineker last year. Since then, he has two wins by KO and submission (the sub was when he became the first man to chose out Douglas Silva). Ironically, Font’s best skill set is his striking while Munhoz is more likely to take the fight on the ground. Munoz’s only career losses are against Raphael Assuncao and Jimmie Rivera (two of the best in the division), I’m going with him.
Winner: Pedro Munhoz, Decision
Robert Winfree: Another good fight here. Both men are really good fighters looking to get into the top fifteen. Font is the slightly more technical striker while Munhoz likes scrambling on the mat and has a wicked guillotine. I anticipate a fun fast paced fight here but I’m leaning towards Munhoz.
Winner: Pedro Munhoz, Decision
Jeffrey Harris: This is a good bantamweight match-up. Both men are on winning streaks. They won’t be competing for the title anytime soon, but a win here will be a good feather in their caps and give them some nice progression through the ranks. Munhoz brings some very dangerous submission grappling here, and I think that gives him a considerable edge over Font. Munhoz picks up the win by sub here.
Winner: Pedro Munhoz, Submission, Round 2
The staff picks Pedro Munhoz, 3-0.
Welterweight Bout: Demian Maia vs. Colby Covington
Jonathan Solomon: Demian Maia will turn 40-years-old nine days from this fight. He’s coming back from the poor performance against Tyron Woodley in his (likely) final title shot in the UFC back in the summer time. Now, he will act as the primary gatekeeper at welterweight where other fighters see whether they’re title contenders or not. Covington is 4-0 since 2016 and scored a bit of an upset win in June when he beat Stun Gun Kim by unanimous decision. This is his next test and a huge one for the wrestler since Maia remains the most dangerous submission artist in the division. Covington insists Maia is too one dimensional and will not score a takedown. I do not believe him.
Winner: Demian Maia, Submission, Round 2
Robert Winfree: I really hope I’m wrong about the quality of this fight, but I think this one will be as exciting as watching paint dry. Covington is a talented folk style wrestler who excels at getting you down from a body lock and then riding you for three rounds while the audience goes to get concessions or visit the restroom. Demian Maia is maybe the best jiu jitsu practitioner in the UFC but he relies on that so heavily that if you can stop him from forcing the grappling he’s got basically nothing. I don’t think Covington has the hand fighting skills that Tyron Woodley showed off to keep Maia from getting takedowns, he’s more likely to try and get on top where he’s likely to get swept and give up his back. I wont be terribly surprised if Covington grinds his way to victory but he’s never had to fight someone like Maia whereas Maia has beaten a lot of guys like Covington.
Winner: Demian Maia, Submission, Round 2
Jeffrey Harris: Colby Covington gets a nice step up in competition here and possibly improve his hopes of title contention at welterweight. He forces Demian Maia, one fight removed from his disappointing title effort against Tyron Woodley. Maia is one of the best grapplers and submission artists the sport has ever seen. He’s a world champion grappler and BJJ competitor. However, while some of those skills have translated well over to MMA, it’s set him back when he’s been pitted against other top-caliber fighters and put in title situations. Case in point, his title losses to Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley. His striking and stand-up skills have always been his achilles heel. In Colby Covington, he faces a very tough, grinding wrestler. Maia’s submission and grappling skills are great equalizers. His striking is pretty middling or sub-par, but I think it will give him an edge over Covington, who has never faced a grappler on Maia’s level. Then again, Maia is getting older, and he’s put a lot of miles on his career. No matter what happens, this is a good test for Covington and to see if he can ascend to greater heights. I’m definitely not expecting fireworks here. Maia rarely gets out-grappled or even out-wrestled. The only times he was were when he fought Jake Shields, and also Woodley being able to shut down and defend all his grappling attempts.
Winner: Demian Maia, Decision
The staff picks Demian Maia, 3-0.
Middleweight Bout: Derek Brunson vs. Lyoto Machida
Jonathan Solomon: Machida is back after serving an 18-month USADA suspension for admitting he took a banned anabolic steroid. He has not competed since the summer of 2015 when he was knocked out by Yoel Romero. Light has not won a fight since knocking out C.B. Dolloway three years ago. Does he have anything left? Derek Brunson suffered losses to Robert Whittaker and Anderson Silva before knocking out Dan Kelly in June. He’s a borderline Top 10 middleweight in the world and I refuse to believe Machida has what it takes in 2017 (nearly 2018) to beat a top fighter.
Winner: Derek Brunson, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: This is one that is going to go badly for one of these two, and it should be clear very quickly once they square up which way that is. Derek Brunson is younger, hits harder, and isn’t coming off of a nearly two year long layoff from competition. He should win this, and rather easily, if not for a really glaring weakness in his game. Brunson leads with his chin, he leaves it wide open for counter strikes while he’s trying to close distance, and he’s been caught because of it in the past. Machida is a gifted counter striker, and if he finds Brunson’s chin as Brunson forces an engagement Brunson likely goes down hard. Alternatively if the time off has rusted Machida’s tools then his counter strike is likely off target or too slow to avoid the power that Brunson is throwing at him. It’s kind of 50-50, and my pick might be overly sentimental, but I think Machida still has enough in the tank to exploit the same weakness he’s been capitalizing on his entire career.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Round 1
Jeffrey Harris: Lyoto Machida has a lot of marks going against him here. For starters, this is his first fight in over two years. He’s now a lot older and 39 years old. He was finished in back-to-back fights by Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero in some nasty finishes. However, Derek Brunson is just too inconsistent in making me have faith in picking him here. The last time Brunson was in a situation like this, he fought Anderson Silva and lost by decision. I won’t argue you with you if you think Brunson should’ve won that fight, but he hardly looked like a million bucks in that bout. Brunson’s defense is also very loose, and he tends to keep his head wide open. That’s right into the game plan of a fighter like Machida, who does well against fighters of Brunson’s type. Case in point, Machida’s fights with Mark Munoz, Ryan Bader, and C.B. Dollaway. We might see some obvious ring rust, but somehow I’m expecting a Machida victory.
Winner: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Round 3
The staff picks Lyoto Machida, 2-1.
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