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411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje

April 14, 2018 | Posted by Dan Plunkett
UFC on FOX 29

WELCOME:
Fireworks are assured when Dustin Poirier meets Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC on Fox! In the co-main event, Carlos Condit searches for his first win since 2015 when he battles Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira. At middleweight, dynamic striker Israel Adesanya looks to make an impact against Marvin Vettori. Plus, Michelle Waterson vs. Cortney Case, and more!

THE STAFF:

  • He’ll lock you in the guillotine, Robert Winfree!

  • And your host for this roundtable, Dan Plunkett!

    Preliminary Card
    UFC Fight Pass
    Bantamweight Bout: Luke Sanders vs. Patrick Williams
    Bantamweight Bout: Matthew Lopez vs. Alejandro Perez
    Heavyweight Bout: Arjan Bhullar vs. Adam Wieczorek
    Welterweight Bout: Dhiego Lima vs. Yushin Okami
    Flyweight Bout: Shana Dobson vs. Lauren Mueller
    Welterweight Bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Dan Moret

    Fox
    Middleweight Bout: Krzysztof Jotko vs. Brad Tavares
    Flyweight Bout: Wilson Reis vs. John Moraga
    Welterweight Bout: Muslim Salikhov vs. Ricky Rainey
    Middleweight Bout: Tim Boetsch vs. Antonio Carlos Junior


    THE MAIN CARD:
    Strawweight Bout: Michelle Waterson vs. Cortney Casey

    Robert Winfree: This isn’t the worst fight to open up a card, but I’m kind of over Waterson as a strawweight. It’s clearly not her optimal weight class and while she’ll do well enough against the lower end of the division but against anyone who’s any good the size difference plays too big a role. Casey is a long strawweight and prefers to strike, especially at distance. There’s a modicum of technique between the two of them but Waterson is going to struggle to find the right range to be truly effective and if they clinch up or grapple Casey likely has a bit of an advantage unless they wind up scrambling and Waterson gets the back. I favor Casey pretty heavily here.

    Winner: Cortney Casey, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: Waterson has dropped her last two fights, falling short against both Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres. Casey is coming off a close loss to Felice Herrig, and prior to that she defeated former top-ranked strawweight Jessica Aguilar. Casey is the bigger fighter here, and I like her to get by Waterson.

    Winner: Casey, Decision


    Middleweight Bout: Martin Vettori vs. Israel Adesanya

    Robert Winfree: This one should be a lot of fun. Adesanya has a fair amount of hype around him because of his striking and his spectacular finishes on the regional scene. The big questions around Adesanya pertain to his conditioning, clinch fighting and breaking, and wrestling ability. Marvin Vettori is unlikely to really test the wrestling of Adesanya, he’s a striker as well but much more of a traditionalist. I tend to favor traditionalists over the crazy creative types if the crazy creative fighters don’t have a solid traditional background, Adesanya has a traditional background and knows when and how to break the rules and a fundamentalist tends to get caught when they experience a higher level of striker like Adesanya.

    Winner: Israel Adesanya, TKO, Round 2

    Dan Plunkett: Adesanya is a great athlete and an exciting striker that has knocked out all of his twelve career opponents within the first two rounds. Vettori can challenge him on the ground, but I think Israel cruises here.

    Winner: Adesanya, TKO, Round 2


    Welterweight Bout: Carlos Condit vs. Alex Oliveira

    Robert Winfree: I don’t think Carlos Condit is completely shot as a fighter, but I think he’s got one foot out of the door at this point. He can still fight but parts of his game have been figured out and the years of wars have started catching up with him. Alex Oliveira is a rough and tumble fighter, and while this is likely to be an entertaining brawl I think Condit doesn’t quite have the same dog in him that Oliveira does at this point.

    Winner: Alex Oliveira, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: It’s shocking to think that we’re coming up on three years since Carlos Condit’s last win, and he is on a 2-6 skid in the past five years. More shocking is that he’s only 33 years old, because it feels like he’s been around forever. He lost to Neil Magny in his comeback fight in December after flirting with retirement. Prior to that, he began to show signs of wear against Demian Maia. It’s always tough to break down a fighter that is on the decline. If we travel back just two years ago, this fight is no contest. Condit would be the sharper striker and piece Oliveira up. In 2018, we find Condit against a tough and durable Oliveira that persists through trouble and returns fire. I have to go with Condit here on reputation alone, but that reputation may have been built by a fighter that is no longer competing.

    Winner: Condit, Decision


    Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

    Robert Winfree: VIOLENCE! Sorry, just had to get that out of the way. These two are going to beat the holy hell out of each other, there will be blood, there will be trauma, and I am really looking forward to all of it. For Poirier to win he has to avoid brawling and has to be able to weather the storm that Gaethje brings into the fight. Poirier has a bad habit of staying technical until he gets his opponent hurt, see his fight with Eddie Alvarez where he badly hurt Alvarez to the body and then went head hunting until Alvarez landed a counter that badly hurt him and could have cost him the fight. When Poirier stays methodical and technical he’s great, but when he gets excited for a finish he winds up open to counters. Also underrated for Poirier is his wrestling, if he can get you down his top game is really impressive especially his ground and pound. Now getting Gaethje down is really hard as he’s a tremendous wrestler who just chooses to brawl, but if Poirier gets on top that’s really his best position. Gaethje is a surprisingly technical fighter, that’s why he tends to win brawls because he’s the more technical party in the chaos but when his opponent remains technical and disciplined he falls a little short. I’m leaning towards Poirier here to stay methodical and take this as it keeps going but I won’t count out the possibility of Poirier getting reckless and Gaethje clocking him.

    Winner: Dustin Poirier, Decision

    Dan Plunkett: We get to watch Dustin Poirier fight Justin Gaethje for a potential five rounds? Say no more, I’m in. Poirier had a great 2017, with the low point coming in the no contest against Eddie Alvarez, which Poirier looked very good in prior to being fouled. Poirier is going to do his best to be the technical striker to counter Gaethje’s brawling. Certainly, it will work to a degree. But he is going to get punched, he is going to get kicked in the legs, and Gaethje is going to make the night uncomfortable for him. Even though we just saw Gaethje taken out by a disciplined Eddie Alvarez, I can’t help but think over a five-rounder he will eventually get to Poirier.

    Winner: Gaethje, TKO, Round 4


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