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411’s Roundtable Preview – Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor
“The Money Fight” has arrived.
Boxing superstar Floyd Mayweather, the most prized of all prizefighters, takes his perfect 49-0 into a match against reigning UFC lightweight champion Conor McGregor, the biggest attraction in mixed martial arts.
They will fight in Mayweather’s ring under Mayweather’s rules, making boxing debutant McGregor a tremendous underdog in search of one of the biggest upsets in sporting history.
The fight has been criticized as a money grab and its stakeholders have been praised for their business acumen in bringing the fantasy match to life. It has been called a dream match and derided as likely to put viewers to sleep. Every angle has been covered in countless words in print and on screen. Now it is time to fight.
THE STAFF:
What is your interest level in the fight?
Jonathan Solomon: High – I’ve bought into the historic nature of the fight. We have never seen anything like it and odds are there will not be anything comparable afterward. The idea that McGregor has a realistic chance to upset Mayweather is built almost exclusively on a puncher’s chance. Floyd has been in boxing in some form his entire life and competing since he was a teenager, so what can Conor realistically do that he has yet to see? In spite of those realities, this fight is a big event that is incapable of being duplicated by any other.
Robert Winfree: None – If I want to watch a circus I’ll find a circus, I don’t watch combat sports for the freak show aspect of it and this is nothing but a freak show fight.
Dan Plunkett: Medium – I don’t mind a good spectacle. Although I doubt the fight will be competitive, there will be a lot to glean from one of the very best fighters in MMA taking on the best boxer in recent memory. Will a confident Mayweather fight with more aggression than he typically does? What plan did McGregor’s team come up with to tackle such a sound defensive fighter with a marked speed advantage? Even one-sided fights can be rich in data. If the build to the fight hadn’t been so off-putting or flat-out bad, I’d probably be more excited.
Will the event break the pay-per-view sales record set by Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao (4.6 million buys)?
Jonathan Solomon: Yes – The reason to believe this fight will break the PPV record is the added impact of the MMA fanbase. Add in the additional factor of the “freak show” feeling this matchup provides and the hook to people who typically don’t purchase MMA or boxing shows and it has the ability to surpass the record. The only way it may disappoint and do sub-4 million is if there is a boost among the general public that it’s going to decisively be a noncompetitive fight or a quick chaotic end.
Robert Winfree: Yes – I’ve gone back and forth on this point quite a bit and today I’ve landed on yes. This fight has broad appeal across boxing, MMA, and extremely casual audiences who just like to see crazy stuff. While the fans of boxing don’t seem all that interested in this fight, and really who could blame them, McGregor alone is good for something in the neighborhood of 2.2 million buys and I have no problem at all believing there are enough people out there who are just curious about this thing to make up the difference.
Dan Plunkett: No – Putting a cap on a pay-per-view event of this magnitude is impossible. Mayweather vs. Pacquiao was so big that it wasn’t far from doubling the previous record. When something catches big, the sky is the limit, so I would not be shocked to see it hit 5 million buys. However, think about that number. 5 million buys. Or even 4.7 million buys.
One million buys is a huge number. The biggest MMA fight in history did perhaps 1.5 million buys. Only three events in the history of pay-per-view have ever topped two million buys.
I have no doubt this fight will be at least the second-biggest pay-per-view in history, but there are obstacles to getting to the top spot. A major one is that very few people strongly believe in McGregor’s chances. Many people discounting McGregor’s odds of winning will buy the pay-per-view, but there will also be those of the same belief that skip the show for that singular reason.
Another obstacle is the relatively short brewing period the fight grew during compared to the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight. More than six years elapsed from the point Manny Pacquiao beat Oscar de la Hoya – and thus became the adversary most wanted to see take on Mayweather – and the time Pacquiao and Mayweather stepped in the ring together. Even after Pacquiao stumbled from his perch and it seemed the matchup had past its most lucrative point, when the fight came, people bought it because it had been built as the boxing match to see for more than half the previous decade. Conversely, it hasn’t even been two years since Conor McGregor beat Jose Aldo to win the UFC featherweight title.
For those reasons, I think we will see a big, big, big number for Mayweather vs. McGregor, but I lean toward it falling short of the record.
Who will win the fight: Floyd Mayweather or Conor McGregor?
Jonathan Solomon: Floyd Mayweather – The only reason Floyd loses this fight is if he is knocked out in the first half of the fight. It’s unrealistic to think Conor can last 12 rounds and take seven of them from Floyd in Las Vegas. As we have never seen Mayweather lose a pro fight, why would you believe his 50th turn will change that?
Robert Winfree: Floyd Mayweather – Floyd Mayweather has never lost a professional boxing bout, Conor McGregor has never had a professional boxing bout. Mayweather has made other men who have dedicated their lives to being excellent boxers look like near amateurs. I wouldn’t pick the best boxer in the world to beat Mayweather, much less a man who’s never had a professional bout and who’s amateur career is undocumented.
Dan Plunkett: Floyd Mayweather – I’m not sure how you can pick against Mayweather. This is not a boxer with defensive liabilities, making McGregor more likely to land his left hand. Rather, this is a boxer renown for his defense that will go down in history as perhaps the best defensive boxer to ever put on the gloves. Nor is Mayweather’s chin an obvious issue; in 49 pro bouts, he has suffered just one official knockdown. Add to that, Mayweather should be significantly faster than McGregor. McGregor’s opportunities to land a clean power left hand will be fleeting windows that Mayweather should instinctively close before McGregor’s glove even gets close. Meanwhile, I do not believe Mayweather will have trouble finding his target on McGregor.
Will the fight last longer than six rounds?
Jonathan Solomon: Yes – In the past 11 years, Floyd has only stopped one fight in fewer than six rounds and that was when Victor Ortiz wasn’t looking. Mayweather is not the aggressor in the ring and especially in this fight, there is absolutely no reason to be. The onus will be on McGregor to hunt him down and wear him out, which some of the best boxers in the world have been unable to do.
Robert Winfree: Yes – Another point I’ve gone back and forth on. McGregor has documented cardio issues and even if he didn’t the only way he can win this bout is via finish, and the only chance in hell you have of finishing Mayweather is in the first two or three rounds while he’s getting a read on you. If McGregor just sprints through those first couple of rounds he’ll gas badly and Mayweather could easily finish him before the sixth, but McGregor could also try and pace himself, Mayweather gets a read on him and is patient until the eighth or so when the pace and accumulation of blows have worn McGregor down enough to finish him.
Dan Plunkett: Yes – I’m torn on this one. I do believe Mayweather will stop McGregor, but I can see McGregor going past the midway point of the fight. McGregor is a tough out, and history says Mayweather may not be too aggressive early.
Will Conor McGregor win at least one round?
Jonathan Solomon: Yes – Certainly, he can rally enough in at least one round to take it. If he is to have any success at all, look for it early on before Floyd settles in and Conor tires.
Robert Winfree: Yes – Mayweather is a defensive marvel and risk averse fighter, McGregor will try to take him out early and could easily take the first round as Mayweather plays defense and gets a read on McGregor’s offense.
Dan Plunkett: No – I think McGregor will have some moments in the fight. Brief fireworks of hope that bring the crowd to a frenzy as they flare up and then fade quickly. Ultimately, I expect McGregor will have difficulty landing clean and Mayweather will counter effectively. Mayweather’s three-minute body of work should beat McGregor’s three-minute body of work every time, but that’s why they fight.
Remember to join 411 for live coverage of the big fight Saturday night!
